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Adaši Čukarica

Founded 1962 in Čukarica

Dvorana kod Ade, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Adaši Čukarica's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Adaši Čukarica's points say about 11 wins in 13 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far

11.0Points say

78.2Scored a game

69.2Allowed a game

+9.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 017
Points allowed	899
Allowed ÷ scored	0.8840
To the power of 14	0.1779
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.1779)	84.90%
× 13 games played	11.04
Wins the points say	11.0 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Adaši Čukarica won 0 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

93.8

Adaši Čukarica let in 93.8 per 100 trips against the league's 103.6. Lower is better: 1st of 14.

ADC 93.8

League 103.6

How we counted it

100 × 899 allowed ÷ 958 possessions	93.8
League mean, 14 clubs	103.6
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

30.2

Adaši Čukarica attempt 30.2 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 25.1, so 2nd of 14.

ADC 30.2 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Adaši Čukarica: 251 tries ÷ 832 shots	30.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

A strong attack

106.8

Adaši Čukarica score 106.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.6. That is 3rd of 14.

ADC 106.8

League 103.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 017 points ÷ 952 possessions	106.8
League mean, 14 clubs	103.6
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Mile Šmid

#93 · PF

38/68shots

88points

+17.9vs expected

How we counted it

38 made of 68, 12 of them threes	38/68
Points: 2 × 38 + 12	88
His shots are worth (expected)	70.1
Above expected	88 − 70.1 = +17.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 14

ADC 51.0 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Adaši Čukarica: (370 + ½ × 108) ÷ 832	51.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 14

ADC 17.3 %

League 17.4 %

How we counted it

Adaši Čukarica: 165 ÷ 952 possessions	17.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 14

ADC 28.5 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Adaši Čukarica: 129 ÷ (129 + 323)	28.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 14

ADC 30.2 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Adaši Čukarica: 251 tries ÷ 832 shots	30.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+1.8

Over 6 games Adaši Čukarica's shots were worth 382.2 points and they scored 384 from the floor: 0.3 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+1.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 170 + 44	384
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	382.2
Shot-making	+1.8
A game	+0.30

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Adaši Čukarica
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 224 league shots	10	0.69	6.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	13	0.71	9.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	3	0.71	2.1
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	14	0.86	12.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 391 league shots	22	0.72	15.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	3	0.69	2.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	3	0.69	2.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	1	0.69	0.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 819 league shots	59	1.19	70.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	14	1.20	16.8
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 267 league shots	22	1.20	26.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	10	1.21	12.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	7	1.21	8.5
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	17	1.18	20.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	4	1.18	4.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	4	1.21	4.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	3	1.21	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	7	0.98	6.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 218 league shots	87	0.98	84.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 202 league shots	16	1.02	16.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	11	0.97	10.7
Three · Pull-up32 % of 307 league shots	13	0.97	12.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	3	1.00	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	5	1.00	5.0
Total adds up	377	1.01	382.2

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Where Adaši Čukarica shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

377 of 377 shots shown

45.1%

170 of 377 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 98 / 152 65% · avg 2.1 ft 49 of the 98 makes assisted league 61% 196pts

MID 28 / 82 34% · avg 14.3 ft 12 of the 28 makes assisted league 37% 56pts

THREE 44 / 143 31% · avg 24.9 ft 40 of the 44 makes assisted league 32% 132pts

170 of 377 from the floor, 384 points, + 89 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

101 of 170 makes were assisted (59%): 49 + 12 + 40.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Adaši Čukarica

40% 22% 38%

League

35% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Adaši Čukarica

33% 9% 42% 15%

League

33% 41% 19%

Adaši Čukarica lean on post-ups: 9.3 % of its shots against the league's 6.8 %.

How we counted it

Adaši Čukarica: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	126 drives + 35 post-ups + 158 catch and shoot + 58 pull-ups = 377

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Mile Šmid PF 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

38/68 shots 70.1 expected 88 scored ▲ +17.9

Pascal Delmas SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

42/95 shots 94.5 expected 95 scored ▲ +0.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.