Aduaneros Paso de los Libres

Founded 1935 in Paso de los Libres

Gimnasio del Puente Internacional, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres's wins trail its points

−1.3 wins

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres's points say about 14 wins in 22 league games. It has 13. The table has been a little unkind.

13Wins so far

14.3Points say

82.0Scored a game

78.5Allowed a game

+3.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 804
Points allowed	1 727
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9573
To the power of 14	0.5430
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5430)	64.81%
× 22 games played	14.26
Wins the points say	14.3 adds up

Wins so far	13
Difference	−1.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Aduaneros Paso de los Libres won 2 and lost 5. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

112.0

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres score 112.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.1. That is 1st of 12.

APL 112.0

League 105.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 804 points ÷ 1 611 possessions	112.0
League mean, 12 clubs	105.1
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

54.3 %

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres shoot 54.3 % effective. The league shoots 50.7 %. That is 2nd of 12.

APL 54.3 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres: (669 + ½ × 205) ÷ 1 421	54.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.2 %

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres give it away on 16.2 % of trips against the league's 16.9 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 12.

APL 16.2 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres: 261 ÷ 1 611 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Best shot-maker

Aurelio Cuadrado

#98 · SG

41/77shots

101points

+19.1vs expected

How we counted it

41 made of 77, 19 of them threes	41/77
Points: 2 × 41 + 19	101
His shots are worth (expected)	81.9
Above expected	101 − 81.9 = +19.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 12

APL 54.3 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres: (669 + ½ × 205) ÷ 1 421	54.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 12

APL 16.2 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres: 261 ÷ 1 611 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 12

APL 25.8 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres: 188 ÷ (188 + 540)	25.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	7th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 5th of 12

APL 24.6 %

League 22.8 %

How we counted it

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres: 350 tries ÷ 1 421 shots	24.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+53.8

Over 9 games Aduaneros Paso de los Libres's shots were worth 602.2 points and they scored 656 from the floor: 6.0 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+53.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 287 + 82	656
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	602.2
Shot-making	+53.8
A game	+5.98

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 232 league shots	23	0.77	17.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	3	0.76	2.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	6	0.76	4.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	2	0.76	1.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 482	15	0.73	11.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 482	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	11	0.70	7.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	3	0.70	2.1
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 530 league shots	47	0.75	35.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 694	9	0.76	6.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 694	6	0.76	4.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 694	3	0.76	2.3
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 175 league shots	92	1.21	111.5
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 200 league shots	17	1.14	19.4
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 362 league shots	36	1.34	48.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 784	8	1.23	9.8
Rim · Post-up57 % of 256 league shots	28	1.14	31.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 307	2	1.09	2.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 307	1	1.09	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	14	1.25	17.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	8	1.25	10.0
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	8	1.22	9.8
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	4	1.22	4.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	15	1.02	15.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	2	1.02	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 698 league shots	120	1.04	125.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance38 % of 308 league shots	13	1.13	14.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 255 league shots	27	1.08	29.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 298	2	1.05	2.1
Three · Pull-up30 % of 374 league shots	29	0.91	26.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 526	14	0.97	13.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 526	4	0.97	3.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 526	1	0.97	1.0
Total adds up	580	1.04	602.2

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Where Aduaneros Paso de los Libres shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

638 of 638 shots shown

48.4%

309 of 638 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 157 / 243 65% · avg 2.0 ft 77 of the 157 makes assisted league 61% 314pts

MID 62 / 142 44% · avg 14.2 ft 31 of the 62 makes assisted league 36% 124pts

THREE 90 / 253 36% · avg 25.1 ft 76 of the 90 makes assisted league 33% 270pts

309 of 638 from the floor, 708 points, + 148 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

184 of 309 makes were assisted (60%): 77 + 31 + 76.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres

38% 23% 39%

League

36% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres

35% 8% 35% 22%

League

33% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Aduaneros Paso de los Libres: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	205 drives + 47 post-ups + 202 catch and shoot + 126 pull-ups = 580

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Aurelio Cuadrado SG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

41/77 shots 81.9 expected 101 scored ▲ +19.1

Román Alcaraz PF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/74 shots 74.4 expected 89 scored ▲ +14.6

Helmut Andre SG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 1

70/142 shots 149.6 expected 164 scored ▲ +14.4

Felipe Plaza SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

28/52 shots 53.9 expected 62 scored ▲ +8.1

Norberto Nonato PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

41/108 shots 110.1 expected 99 scored ▼ −11.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.