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Agkyres Pylos

Founded 2007 in Pylos

Gymnastirio tou Navarinou, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Agkyres Pylos's wins run ahead of its points

+1.6 wins

Agkyres Pylos's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little kind.

7Wins so far

5.4Points say

69.7Scored a game

71.5Allowed a game

−1.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	906
Points allowed	929
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0254
To the power of 14	1.4204
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.4204)	41.31%
× 13 games played	5.37
Wins the points say	5.4 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+1.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Agkyres Pylos won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

43.1 %

Agkyres Pylos shoot 43.1 % effective. The league shoots 48.4 %. That is 14th of 14.

AGP 43.1 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Agkyres Pylos: (328 + ½ × 97) ÷ 873	43.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

25.0

Agkyres Pylos attempt 25.0 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 20.1, so 1st of 14.

AGP 25.0 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Agkyres Pylos: 218 tries ÷ 873 shots	25.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Strong on the glass

28.2 %

Agkyres Pylos win back 28.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.3 %. That is 2nd of 14.

AGP 28.2 %

League 25.3 %

How we counted it

Agkyres Pylos: 146 ÷ (146 + 372)	28.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Best shot-maker

Lysimachos Gillespie

#9 · PG

41/88shots

96points

+5.3vs expected

How we counted it

41 made of 88, 14 of them threes	41/88
Points: 2 × 41 + 14	96
His shots are worth (expected)	90.7
Above expected	96 − 90.7 = +5.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 14th of 14

AGP 43.1 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Agkyres Pylos: (328 + ½ × 97) ÷ 873	43.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 14

AGP 15.3 %

League 15.6 %

How we counted it

Agkyres Pylos: 144 ÷ 941 possessions	15.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 14

AGP 28.2 %

League 25.3 %

How we counted it

Agkyres Pylos: 146 ÷ (146 + 372)	28.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 14

AGP 25.0 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Agkyres Pylos: 218 tries ÷ 873 shots	25.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−40.5

Over 6 games Agkyres Pylos's shots were worth 375.5 points and they scored 335 from the floor: 6.7 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−40.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 148 + 39	335
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	375.5
Shot-making	−40.5
A game	−6.74

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Agkyres Pylos
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive33 % of 223 league shots	13	0.66	8.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 314	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 314	2	0.71	1.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 260	13	0.73	9.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 260	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 260	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot32 % of 223 league shots	18	0.65	11.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 282	4	0.64	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 282	2	0.64	1.3
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 412 league shots	26	0.80	20.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 521	13	0.79	10.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 521	4	0.79	3.2
Rim · Drive59 % of 914 league shots	65	1.19	77.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 345	9	1.21	10.9
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 266 league shots	16	1.37	21.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 345	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	19	1.20	22.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 364	5	0.96	4.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 364	1	0.96	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 364	2	0.96	1.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 364	1	0.96	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 401 league shots	86	0.97	83.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 240 league shots	14	0.96	13.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 843	12	0.95	11.5
Three · Pull-up31 % of 268 league shots	32	0.93	29.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 366	4	0.93	3.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 366	3	0.93	2.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 366	1	0.93	0.9
Total adds up	382	0.98	375.5

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Where Agkyres Pylos shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

382 of 382 shots shown

38.7%

148 of 382 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 74 / 123 60% · avg 1.8 ft 27 of the 74 makes assisted league 60% 148pts

MID 35 / 98 36% · avg 14.3 ft 12 of the 35 makes assisted league 36% 70pts

THREE 39 / 161 24% · avg 25.3 ft 31 of the 39 makes assisted league 31% 117pts

148 of 382 from the floor, 335 points, + 76 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

70 of 148 makes were assisted (47%): 27 + 12 + 31.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Agkyres Pylos

32% 26% 42%

League

32% 24% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Agkyres Pylos

30% 10% 37% 23%

League

34% 42% 18%

Agkyres Pylos lean on post-ups: 9.7 % of its shots against the league's 6.2 %.

How we counted it

Agkyres Pylos: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	116 drives + 37 post-ups + 141 catch and shoot + 88 pull-ups = 382

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Lysimachos Gillespie PG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/88 shots 90.7 expected 96 scored ▲ +5.3

Onoufrios Altın SG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

54/126 shots 122.6 expected 121 scored ▼ −1.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.