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Agurkai Kėdainiai

Founded 1957 in Kėdainiai

Dotnuvėlės salė, holding 6 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Agurkai Kėdainiai's wins run ahead of its points

+1.0 wins

Agurkai Kėdainiai's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. The table has been a little kind.

5Wins so far

4.0Points say

80.3Scored a game

85.2Allowed a game

−4.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 044
Points allowed	1 107
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0603
To the power of 14	2.2712
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.2712)	30.57%
× 13 games played	3.97
Wins the points say	4.0 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+1.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Agurkai Kėdainiai won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

16.5 %

Agurkai Kėdainiai give it away on 16.5 % of trips against the league's 17.7 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 14.

AGK 16.5 %

League 17.7 %

How we counted it

Agurkai Kėdainiai: 160 ÷ 968 possessions	16.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

107.9

Agurkai Kėdainiai score 107.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.1. That is 12th of 14.

AGK 107.9

League 110.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 044 points ÷ 968 possessions	107.9
League mean, 14 clubs	110.1
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.9 %

Agurkai Kėdainiai win back 22.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.7 %. That is 12th of 14.

AGK 22.9 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Agurkai Kėdainiai: 101 ÷ (101 + 340)	22.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Eimantas Tamulis

#14 · SF

30/62shots

75points

+10.1vs expected

How we counted it

30 made of 62, 15 of them threes	30/62
Points: 2 × 30 + 15	75
His shots are worth (expected)	64.9
Above expected	75 − 64.9 = +10.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 10th of 14

AGK 52.8 %

League 53.7 %

How we counted it

Agurkai Kėdainiai: (361 + ½ × 147) ÷ 823	52.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	53.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 14

AGK 16.5 %

League 17.7 %

How we counted it

Agurkai Kėdainiai: 160 ÷ 968 possessions	16.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 12th of 14

AGK 22.9 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Agurkai Kėdainiai: 101 ÷ (101 + 340)	22.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 14

AGK 27.3 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Agurkai Kėdainiai: 225 tries ÷ 823 shots	27.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+21.8

Over 6 games Agurkai Kėdainiai's shots were worth 397.2 points and they scored 419 from the floor: 3.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+21.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 175 + 69	419
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	397.2
Shot-making	+21.8
A game	+3.63

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Agurkai Kėdainiai
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 232	15	0.80	12.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 232	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 232	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 073	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 073	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 073	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 234	9	0.87	7.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 234	4	0.87	3.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 234	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 357 league shots	26	0.81	21.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 476	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 476	7	0.78	5.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 476	2	0.78	1.6
Rim · Drive61 % of 793 league shots	54	1.22	65.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 247	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 303 league shots	17	1.25	21.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 247	3	1.21	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 248	12	1.28	15.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 248	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	14	1.24	17.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	9	1.24	11.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 965	7	1.23	8.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 965	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 965	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	9	1.04	9.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	1	1.04	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 231 league shots	98	1.06	103.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 688	14	1.03	14.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break33 % of 234 league shots	15	0.99	14.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 688	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Pull-up33 % of 264 league shots	29	0.98	28.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 364	2	1.01	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 364	3	1.01	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 364	1	1.01	1.0
Total adds up	375	1.06	397.2

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Where Agurkai Kėdainiai shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

375 of 375 shots shown

46.7%

175 of 375 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 80 / 125 64% · avg 1.9 ft 44 of the 80 makes assisted league 62% 160pts

MID 26 / 73 36% · avg 14.8 ft 15 of the 26 makes assisted league 41% 52pts

THREE 69 / 177 39% · avg 25.2 ft 65 of the 69 makes assisted league 35% 207pts

175 of 375 from the floor, 419 points, + 103 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

124 of 175 makes were assisted (71%): 44 + 15 + 65.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Agurkai Kėdainiai

33% 19% 47%

League

37% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Agurkai Kėdainiai

29% 45% 22%

League

31% 43% 19%

How we counted it

Agurkai Kėdainiai: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	107 drives + 19 post-ups + 167 catch and shoot + 82 pull-ups = 375

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Eimantas Tamulis SF 33 y

Solid41–60

Age: 33
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

30/62 shots 64.9 expected 75 scored ▲ +10.1

Rocco Marty SF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/66 shots 68.9 expected 74 scored ▲ +5.1

Ipolitas Juozaitis Injured SG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/74 shots 80.2 expected 80 scored ▼ −0.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.