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Algarrobos La Banda

Founded 1947 in La Banda

Gimnasio del Bañado, holding 6 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Algarrobos La Banda's wins trail its points

−1.0 wins

Algarrobos La Banda's points say about 10 wins in 15 league games. It has 9. The table has been a little unkind.

9Wins so far

10.0Points say

83.1Scored a game

79.1Allowed a game

+4.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 247
Points allowed	1 186
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9511
To the power of 14	0.4955
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4955)	66.87%
× 15 games played	10.03
Wins the points say	10.0 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−1.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Algarrobos La Banda won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

55.6 %

Algarrobos La Banda shoot 55.6 % effective. The league shoots 53.1 %. That is 3rd of 16.

ALB 55.6 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Algarrobos La Banda: (467 + ½ × 151) ÷ 975	55.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

Strength

A solid defence

106.0

Algarrobos La Banda let in 106.0 per 100 trips against the league's 109.4. Lower is better: 4th of 16.

ALB 106.0

League 109.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 186 allowed ÷ 1 119 possessions	106.0
League mean, 16 clubs	109.4
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.0 %

Algarrobos La Banda win back 24.0 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 12th of 16.

ALB 24.0 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Algarrobos La Banda: 117 ÷ (117 + 371)	24.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Best shot-maker

Gabriel Loiseau

#28 · SG

40/63shots

91points

+19.7vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 63, 11 of them threes	40/63
Points: 2 × 40 + 11	91
His shots are worth (expected)	71.3
Above expected	91 − 71.3 = +19.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 16

ALB 55.6 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Algarrobos La Banda: (467 + ½ × 151) ÷ 975	55.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 16

ALB 17.4 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Algarrobos La Banda: 194 ÷ 1 114 possessions	17.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	7th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 12th of 16

ALB 24.0 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Algarrobos La Banda: 117 ÷ (117 + 371)	24.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 16

ALB 21.8 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Algarrobos La Banda: 213 tries ÷ 975 shots	21.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+59.7

Over 6 games Algarrobos La Banda's shots were worth 397.3 points and they scored 457 from the floor: 10.0 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+59.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 198 + 61	457
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	397.3
Shot-making	+59.7
A game	+9.96

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Algarrobos La Banda
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 284	9	0.79	7.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 284	5	0.79	4.0
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 272	12	0.80	9.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 272	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 272	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 272	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 256	9	0.80	7.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 256	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 256	4	0.80	3.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 256	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 407 league shots	27	0.78	21.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 543	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 543	3	0.78	2.3
Rim · Drive61 % of 961 league shots	66	1.22	80.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 500	11	1.22	13.4
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 344 league shots	23	1.21	27.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 500	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Post-up65 % of 226 league shots	14	1.29	18.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 285	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 285	4	1.29	5.2
Rim · Catch and shoot57 % of 216 league shots	13	1.14	14.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 336	5	1.23	6.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 230	6	1.22	7.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 230	1	1.22	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 210	7	1.14	8.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 210	2	1.14	2.3
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 210	1	1.14	1.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 2 834	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 608 league shots	80	1.04	82.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 261 league shots	9	0.94	8.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break44 % of 256 league shots	11	1.31	14.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 157	4	1.06	4.3
Three · Pull-up38 % of 320 league shots	17	1.13	19.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453	7	1.11	7.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453	4	1.11	4.4
Total adds up	371	1.07	397.3

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Where Algarrobos La Banda shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

975 of 975 shots shown

47.9%

467 of 975 from the floor, 15 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 222 / 356 62% · avg 2.1 ft 131 of the 222 makes assisted league 61% 444pts

MID 94 / 220 43% · avg 13.9 ft 39 of the 94 makes assisted league 39% 188pts

THREE 151 / 399 38% · avg 25.4 ft 137 of the 151 makes assisted league 36% 453pts

467 of 975 from the floor, 1 085 points, + 162 from the line

1 085 + 162 = 1 247 points in 15 games, the same as the league table and the wins the points say.

307 of 467 makes were assisted (66%): 131 + 39 + 137.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Algarrobos La Banda

40% 22% 39%

League

35% 20% 45%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Algarrobos La Banda

34% 11% 37% 18%

League

31% 43% 17%

Algarrobos La Banda lean on post-ups: 10.5 % of its shots against the league's 7.7 %.

How we counted it

Algarrobos La Banda: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	127 drives + 39 post-ups + 137 catch and shoot + 68 pull-ups = 371

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gabriel Loiseau SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/63 shots 71.3 expected 91 scored ▲ +19.7

Dominic Guerrero PF 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

43/88 shots 91.4 expected 101 scored ▲ +9.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.