Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña

Founded 1956 in Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña

Gimnasio de las Termas, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña's points say about 10 wins in 15 league games. It has 10. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

10Wins so far

10.0Points say

86.4Scored a game

82.2Allowed a game

+4.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 296
Points allowed	1 233
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9514
To the power of 14	0.4978
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4978)	66.77%
× 15 games played	10.02
Wins the points say	10.0 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

14.6 %

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña give it away on 14.6 % of trips against the league's 17.5 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 16.

APR 14.6 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña: 162 ÷ 1 109 possessions	14.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

35.1

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña attempt 35.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 25.5, so 1st of 16.

APR 35.1 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña: 341 tries ÷ 972 shots	35.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Strength

A strong attack

116.9

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña score 116.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.4. That is 2nd of 16.

APR 116.9

League 109.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 296 points ÷ 1 109 possessions	116.9
League mean, 16 clubs	109.4
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Best shot-maker

Davide Puente

#52 · SG

42/81shots

101points

+13.9vs expected

How we counted it

42 made of 81, 17 of them threes	42/81
Points: 2 × 42 + 17	101
His shots are worth (expected)	87.1
Above expected	101 − 87.1 = +13.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 16

APR 53.1 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña: (451 + ½ × 131) ÷ 972	53.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	9th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 16

APR 14.6 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña: 162 ÷ 1 109 possessions	14.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 16

APR 27.4 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña: 136 ÷ (136 + 360)	27.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	6th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 16

APR 35.1 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña: 341 tries ÷ 972 shots	35.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−30.4

Over 6 games Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña's shots were worth 421.4 points and they scored 391 from the floor: 5.1 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−30.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 172 + 47	391
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	421.4
Shot-making	−30.4
A game	−5.06

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 284	9	0.79	7.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 284	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 284	5	0.79	3.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 284	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 272	14	0.80	11.1
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 272	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 256	11	0.80	8.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 256	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 256	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 407 league shots	23	0.78	18.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 543	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 543	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 543	1	0.78	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 961 league shots	63	1.22	77.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 500	15	1.22	18.3
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 344 league shots	28	1.21	33.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 500	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Post-up65 % of 226 league shots	23	1.29	29.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 285	5	1.29	6.4
Rim · Catch and shoot57 % of 216 league shots	15	1.14	17.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 336	5	1.23	6.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 336	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 230	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 230	1	1.22	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 210	4	1.14	4.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 210	2	1.14	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 210	1	1.14	1.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 210	1	1.14	1.1
Three · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 2 834	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 608 league shots	78	1.04	80.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 261 league shots	17	0.94	16.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break44 % of 256 league shots	12	1.31	15.7
Three · Pull-up38 % of 320 league shots	22	1.13	24.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453	7	1.11	7.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453	2	1.11	2.2
Total adds up	390	1.08	421.4

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Where Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

972 of 972 shots shown

46.4%

451 of 972 from the floor, 15 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 238 / 397 60% · avg 2.0 ft 125 of the 238 makes assisted league 61% 476pts

MID 82 / 191 43% · avg 14.0 ft 38 of the 82 makes assisted league 39% 164pts

THREE 131 / 384 34% · avg 25.3 ft 116 of the 131 makes assisted league 36% 393pts

451 of 972 from the floor, 1 033 points, + 263 from the line

1 033 + 263 = 1 296 points in 15 games, the same as the league table and the wins the points say.

279 of 451 makes were assisted (62%): 125 + 38 + 116.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña

43% 20% 38%

League

35% 20% 45%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña

34% 12% 37% 17%

League

31% 43% 17%

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña lean on post-ups: 11.5 % of its shots against the league's 7.7 %.

How we counted it

Algodoneros Presidencia Roque Sáenz Peña: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	134 drives + 45 post-ups + 146 catch and shoot + 65 pull-ups = 390

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Davide Puente SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

42/81 shots 87.1 expected 101 scored ▲ +13.9

Prudencio Pérez Injured SF 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/67 shots 71.5 expected 71 scored ▼ −0.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.