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Aljibes Almería

Founded 1976 in Almería

Pabellón de la Alcazaba, holding 5 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Aljibes Almería's wins match its points

+0.6 wins

Aljibes Almería's points say about 12 wins in 17 league games. It has 13. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

13Wins so far

12.4Points say

87.8Scored a game

81.8Allowed a game

+6.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 493
Points allowed	1 391
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9317
To the power of 14	0.3713
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3713)	72.92%
× 17 games played	12.40
Wins the points say	12.4 adds up

Wins so far	13
Difference	+0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Aljibes Almería won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

56.6 %

Aljibes Almería shoot 56.6 % effective. The league shoots 53.1 %. That is 2nd of 18.

AAL 56.6 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Aljibes Almería: (543 + ½ × 165) ÷ 1 106	56.6 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

30.3

Aljibes Almería attempt 30.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.8, so 2nd of 18.

AAL 30.3 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Aljibes Almería: 335 tries ÷ 1 106 shots	30.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Strength

A strong attack

115.7

Aljibes Almería score 115.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.2. That is 5th of 18.

AAL 115.7

League 110.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 493 points ÷ 1 290 possessions	115.7
League mean, 18 clubs	110.2
Rank, 18 clubs	5th of 18

Best shot-maker

Iván Barrera

#97 · SG

68/116shots

157points

+31.4vs expected

How we counted it

68 made of 116, 21 of them threes	68/116
Points: 2 × 68 + 21	157
His shots are worth (expected)	125.6
Above expected	157 − 125.6 = +31.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 18

AAL 56.6 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Aljibes Almería: (543 + ½ × 165) ÷ 1 106	56.6 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 18

AAL 17.4 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Aljibes Almería: 224 ÷ 1 290 possessions	17.4 %
League mean, 18 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	10th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 18

AAL 27.8 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Aljibes Almería: 156 ÷ (156 + 405)	27.8 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	7th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 18

AAL 30.3 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Aljibes Almería: 335 tries ÷ 1 106 shots	30.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+19.5

Over 8 games Aljibes Almería's shots were worth 566.5 points and they scored 586 from the floor: 2.4 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+19.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 253 + 80	586
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	566.5
Shot-making	+19.5
A game	+2.44

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Aljibes Almería
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 309 league shots	24	0.89	21.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	4	0.88	3.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	2	0.88	1.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	3	0.88	2.6
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 202 league shots	12	0.81	9.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 248	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 313 league shots	13	0.72	9.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 662 league shots	23	0.80	18.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	10	0.82	8.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	1	0.82	0.8
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 355 league shots	91	1.25	113.9
Rim · Drive · second chance60 % of 233 league shots	18	1.20	21.6
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 487 league shots	30	1.33	39.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 2 154	7	1.26	8.8
Rim · Post-up60 % of 336 league shots	22	1.20	26.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 313 league shots	20	1.25	25.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	12	1.29	15.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	2	1.29	2.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	7	1.06	7.4
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	7	1.06	7.4
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 879	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 083 league shots	101	1.02	103.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 389 league shots	18	0.99	17.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 392 league shots	21	1.07	22.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 915	4	1.02	4.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 510 league shots	33	1.01	33.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	4	1.02	4.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	8	1.02	8.1
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	1	1.02	1.0
Total adds up	524	1.08	566.5

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Where Aljibes Almería shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

524 of 524 shots shown

48.3%

253 of 524 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 134 / 219 61% · avg 2.0 ft 55 of the 134 makes assisted league 63% 268pts

MID 39 / 100 39% · avg 14.9 ft 20 of the 39 makes assisted league 40% 78pts

THREE 80 / 205 39% · avg 25.2 ft 70 of the 80 makes assisted league 34% 240pts

253 of 524 from the floor, 586 points, + 107 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

145 of 253 makes were assisted (57%): 55 + 20 + 70.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Aljibes Almería

42% 19% 39%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Aljibes Almería

37% 37% 19%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Aljibes Almería: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	193 drives + 40 post-ups + 192 catch and shoot + 99 pull-ups = 524

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Iván Barrera SG 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

68/116 shots 125.6 expected 157 scored ▲ +31.4

Ceferino Cifuentes SG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/77 shots 81.2 expected 87 scored ▲ +5.8

Arnoldas Danilevičius SF 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

40/82 shots 88.4 expected 94 scored ▲ +5.6

Guillermo Feijóo PG 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 2

35/76 shots 82.8 expected 80 scored ▼ −2.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.