Manage a club, start free

Almazaras Jaén

Founded 1974 in Jaén

Pabellón de Santa Catalina, holding 4 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Behind its points

Almazaras Jaén's wins trail its points

−1.7 wins

Almazaras Jaén's points say about 11 wins in 17 league games. It has 9. The table has been a little unkind.

9Wins so far

10.7Points say

88.9Scored a game

85.6Allowed a game

+3.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 512
Points allowed	1 456
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9630
To the power of 14	0.5896
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5896)	62.91%
× 17 games played	10.69
Wins the points say	10.7 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−1.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Almazaras Jaén won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Strength

A strong attack

118.4

Almazaras Jaén score 118.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.2. That is 1st of 18.

AJA 118.4

League 110.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 512 points ÷ 1 277 possessions	118.4
League mean, 18 clubs	110.2
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Strength

Hot shooting

56.7 %

Almazaras Jaén shoot 56.7 % effective. The league shoots 53.1 %. That is 1st of 18.

AJA 56.7 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Almazaras Jaén: (545 + ½ × 166) ÷ 1 108	56.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Weakness

A leaky defence

113.8

Almazaras Jaén let in 113.8 per 100 trips against the league's 110.2. Lower is better: 15th of 18.

AJA 113.8

League 110.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 456 allowed ÷ 1 279 possessions	113.8
League mean, 18 clubs	110.2
Rank, 18 clubs	15th of 18

Best shot-maker

Martín Jara

#96 · SF

46/80shots

119points

+34.2vs expected

How we counted it

46 made of 80, 27 of them threes	46/80
Points: 2 × 46 + 27	119
His shots are worth (expected)	84.8
Above expected	119 − 84.8 = +34.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 18

AJA 56.7 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Almazaras Jaén: (545 + ½ × 166) ÷ 1 108	56.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 5th of 18

AJA 16.2 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Almazaras Jaén: 207 ÷ 1 277 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	5th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 14th of 18

AJA 25.5 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Almazaras Jaén: 140 ÷ (140 + 408)	25.5 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	14th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 18

AJA 28.6 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Almazaras Jaén: 317 tries ÷ 1 108 shots	28.6 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	7th of 18

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+59.8

Over 8 games Almazaras Jaén's shots were worth 529.2 points and they scored 589 from the floor: 7.5 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+59.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 254 + 81	589
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	529.2
Shot-making	+59.8
A game	+7.47

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Almazaras Jaén
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 309 league shots	21	0.89	18.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	4	0.88	3.5
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 202 league shots	12	0.81	9.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 248	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 248	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 313 league shots	19	0.72	13.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 662 league shots	42	0.80	33.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	7	0.82	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	7	0.82	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	3	0.82	2.5
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 355 league shots	63	1.25	78.9
Rim · Drive · second chance60 % of 233 league shots	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 487 league shots	24	1.33	31.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 2 154	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Post-up60 % of 336 league shots	25	1.20	29.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 313 league shots	26	1.25	32.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	3	1.22	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	5	1.22	6.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	8	1.29	10.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	5	1.29	6.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	1	1.29	1.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	11	1.06	11.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	3	1.06	3.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	5	1.06	5.3
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 879	2	1.02	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 083 league shots	105	1.02	107.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 389 league shots	21	0.99	20.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 392 league shots	23	1.07	24.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 915	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Pull-up34 % of 510 league shots	22	1.01	22.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	2	1.02	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	4	1.02	4.1
Total adds up	502	1.05	529.2

⁠

Where Almazaras Jaén shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

502 of 502 shots shown

50.6%

254 of 502 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 114 / 180 63% · avg 2.0 ft 69 of the 114 makes assisted league 63% 228pts

MID 59 / 123 48% · avg 14.3 ft 20 of the 59 makes assisted league 40% 118pts

THREE 81 / 199 41% · avg 25.1 ft 70 of the 81 makes assisted league 34% 243pts

254 of 502 from the floor, 589 points, + 144 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

159 of 254 makes were assisted (63%): 69 + 20 + 70.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Almazaras Jaén

36% 25% 40%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Almazaras Jaén

29% 10% 41% 21%

League

32% 41% 19%

Almazaras Jaén lean on post-ups: 9.6 % of its shots against the league's 7.5 %.

How we counted it

Almazaras Jaén: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	144 drives + 48 post-ups + 207 catch and shoot + 103 pull-ups = 502

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Martín Jara SF 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

46/80 shots 84.8 expected 119 scored ▲ +34.2

Alfredo Colomer PG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

47/87 shots 90.9 expected 105 scored ▲ +14.1

Glenn Bailey PF 33 y

Strong61–80

Age: 33
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

39/76 shots 78.3 expected 90 scored ▲ +11.7

Basile Castilho SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/78 shots 82.4 expected 88 scored ▲ +5.6

Manuel Mulet C 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

21/50 shots 51.8 expected 44 scored ▼ −7.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.