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Alonia Almyros

Founded 1986 in Almyros

Gymnastirio tou Othryos, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Alonia Almyros's wins match its points

+0.9 wins

Alonia Almyros's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

4.1Points say

76.7Scored a game

81.0Allowed a game

−4.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	997
Points allowed	1 053
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0562
To the power of 14	2.1491
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.1491)	31.75%
× 13 games played	4.13
Wins the points say	4.1 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Alonia Almyros won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

109.8

Alonia Almyros let in 109.8 per 100 trips against the league's 104.0. Lower is better: 14th of 14.

ALA 109.8

League 104.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 053 allowed ÷ 959 possessions	109.8
League mean, 14 clubs	104.0
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

52.3 %

Alonia Almyros shoot 52.3 % effective. The league shoots 50.3 %. That is 2nd of 14.

ALA 52.3 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Alonia Almyros: (378 + ½ × 115) ÷ 832	52.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Weakness

Weak on the glass

23.1 %

Alonia Almyros win back 23.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 11th of 14.

ALA 23.1 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Alonia Almyros: 102 ÷ (102 + 339)	23.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Best shot-maker

Esteban Gambo

#89 · SF

52/114shots

120points

+3.9vs expected

How we counted it

52 made of 114, 16 of them threes	52/114
Points: 2 × 52 + 16	120
His shots are worth (expected)	116.1
Above expected	120 − 116.1 = +3.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 14

ALA 52.3 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Alonia Almyros: (378 + ½ × 115) ÷ 832	52.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 14

ALA 17.0 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Alonia Almyros: 163 ÷ 958 possessions	17.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 11th of 14

ALA 23.1 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Alonia Almyros: 102 ÷ (102 + 339)	23.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 14

ALA 24.0 %

League 22.7 %

How we counted it

Alonia Almyros: 200 tries ÷ 832 shots	24.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+9.8

Over 6 games Alonia Almyros's shots were worth 375.2 points and they scored 385 from the floor: 1.6 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+9.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 166 + 53	385
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	375.2
Shot-making	+9.8
A game	+1.64

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Alonia Almyros
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 215 league shots	15	0.80	12.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 306	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 306	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 263	11	0.77	8.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 263	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	12	0.79	9.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	3	0.79	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 411 league shots	19	0.73	13.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 568	9	0.76	6.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 568	7	0.76	5.3
Rim · Drive60 % of 887 league shots	62	1.20	74.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 352	5	1.21	6.1
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 284 league shots	22	1.17	25.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 352	4	1.21	4.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	12	1.02	12.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	3	1.02	3.0
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	1	1.02	1.0
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	10	1.23	12.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 908	7	1.19	8.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 908	2	1.19	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	3	0.97	2.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	2	0.97	1.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	2	0.97	1.9
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 284 league shots	110	0.94	103.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 221 league shots	15	0.92	13.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 719	12	0.97	11.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 719	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 280 league shots	17	0.96	16.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 382	4	0.99	4.0
Total adds up	380	0.99	375.2

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Where Alonia Almyros shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

380 of 380 shots shown

43.7%

166 of 380 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 82 / 133 62% · avg 2.0 ft 50 of the 82 makes assisted league 60% 164pts

MID 31 / 81 38% · avg 14.3 ft 14 of the 31 makes assisted league 38% 62pts

THREE 53 / 166 32% · avg 25.4 ft 49 of the 53 makes assisted league 32% 159pts

166 of 380 from the floor, 385 points, + 65 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

113 of 166 makes were assisted (68%): 50 + 14 + 49.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Alonia Almyros

35% 21% 44%

League

35% 23% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Alonia Almyros

31% 44% 17%

League

33% 40% 19%

How we counted it

Alonia Almyros: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	116 drives + 30 post-ups + 169 catch and shoot + 65 pull-ups = 380

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Esteban Gambo SF 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

52/114 shots 116.1 expected 120 scored ▲ +3.9

Iordanis Mota PG 34 y

Solid41–60

Age: 34
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

18/60 shots 58.4 expected 39 scored ▼ −19.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.