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Ampelourgoi Naousa

Founded 1966 in Naousa

Gymnastirio tis Arapitsas, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Ampelourgoi Naousa's wins run ahead of its points

+1.6 wins

Ampelourgoi Naousa's points say about 2 wins in 13 league games. It has 4. The table has been a little kind.

4Wins so far

2.4Points say

75.1Scored a game

83.4Allowed a game

−8.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	976
Points allowed	1 084
Allowed ÷ scored	1.1107
To the power of 14	4.3462
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 4.3462)	18.70%
× 13 games played	2.43
Wins the points say	2.4 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	+1.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Ampelourgoi Naousa won 2 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

113.5

Ampelourgoi Naousa let in 113.5 per 100 trips against the league's 106.1. Lower is better: 14th of 14.

AMN 113.5

League 106.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 084 allowed ÷ 955 possessions	113.5
League mean, 14 clubs	106.1
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.5 %

Ampelourgoi Naousa give it away on 18.5 % of trips against the league's 16.7 %. Fewer is better: 14th of 14.

AMN 18.5 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Ampelourgoi Naousa: 177 ÷ 957 possessions	18.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

18.2

Ampelourgoi Naousa attempt 18.2 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.4, so 14th of 14.

AMN 18.2 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Ampelourgoi Naousa: 151 tries ÷ 831 shots	18.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Best shot-maker

Ezequiel Ferrer

#22 · SG

50/95shots

115points

+19.4vs expected

How we counted it

50 made of 95, 15 of them threes	50/95
Points: 2 × 50 + 15	115
His shots are worth (expected)	95.6
Above expected	115 − 95.6 = +19.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 14

AMN 52.4 %

League 51.4 %

How we counted it

Ampelourgoi Naousa: (370 + ½ × 131) ÷ 831	52.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	51.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 14th of 14

AMN 18.5 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Ampelourgoi Naousa: 177 ÷ 957 possessions	18.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 12th of 14

AMN 23.2 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Ampelourgoi Naousa: 102 ÷ (102 + 337)	23.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 14th of 14

AMN 18.2 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Ampelourgoi Naousa: 151 tries ÷ 831 shots	18.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−9.2

Over 6 games Ampelourgoi Naousa's shots were worth 365.2 points and they scored 356 from the floor: 1.5 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−9.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 152 + 52	356
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	365.2
Shot-making	−9.2
A game	−1.53

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Ampelourgoi Naousa
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	21	0.61	12.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	1	0.61	0.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	1	0.61	0.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	19	0.82	15.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	2	0.82	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 406 league shots	36	0.75	27.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	7	0.73	5.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 806 league shots	53	1.20	63.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 259	5	1.24	6.2
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 271 league shots	19	1.36	25.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 259	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	7	1.25	8.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	6	1.27	7.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	1	1.27	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	4	1.27	5.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	3	1.25	3.8
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	5	1.03	5.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	2	1.03	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 1 351 league shots	103	1.02	105.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 216 league shots	18	0.96	17.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 228 league shots	9	1.18	10.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 829	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Pull-up33 % of 312 league shots	19	1.00	19.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 411	1	0.95	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 411	5	0.95	4.7
Total adds up	365	1.00	365.2

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Where Ampelourgoi Naousa shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

365 of 365 shots shown

41.6%

152 of 365 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 65 / 100 65% · avg 2.1 ft 36 of the 65 makes assisted league 62% 130pts

MID 35 / 101 35% · avg 14.3 ft 15 of the 35 makes assisted league 37% 70pts

THREE 52 / 164 32% · avg 25.2 ft 43 of the 52 makes assisted league 34% 156pts

152 of 365 from the floor, 356 points, + 54 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

94 of 152 makes were assisted (62%): 36 + 15 + 43.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Ampelourgoi Naousa

27% 28% 45%

League

33% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Ampelourgoi Naousa

30% 46% 21%

League

31% 42% 20%

How we counted it

Ampelourgoi Naousa: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	109 drives + 14 post-ups + 167 catch and shoot + 75 pull-ups = 365

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ezequiel Ferrer SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

50/95 shots 95.6 expected 115 scored ▲ +19.4

Charalampos Kolundžić PF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/58 shots 57.8 expected 54 scored ▼ −3.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.