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Anemomyloi Rodos

Founded 1935 in Rodos

Gymnastirio tou Mandrakiou, holding 7 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Anemomyloi Rodos's wins run ahead of its points

+2.7 wins

Anemomyloi Rodos's points say about 3 wins in 15 league games. It has 6. The table has been a little kind.

6Wins so far

3.3Points say

79.2Scored a game

86.8Allowed a game

−7.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 188
Points allowed	1 302
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0960
To the power of 14	3.6068
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.6068)	21.71%
× 15 games played	3.26
Wins the points say	3.3 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	+2.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Anemomyloi Rodos won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

50.1 %

Anemomyloi Rodos shoot 50.1 % effective. The league shoots 54.3 %. That is 16th of 16.

ANR 50.1 %

League 54.3 %

How we counted it

Anemomyloi Rodos: (432 + ½ × 132) ÷ 995	50.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	54.3 %
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

Weakness

A thin attack

106.0

Anemomyloi Rodos score 106.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 113.0. That is 14th of 16.

ANR 106.0

League 113.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 188 points ÷ 1 121 possessions	106.0
League mean, 16 clubs	113.0
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

Weakness

A leaky defence

115.7

Anemomyloi Rodos let in 115.7 per 100 trips against the league's 113.0. Lower is better: 13th of 16.

ANR 115.7

League 113.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 302 allowed ÷ 1 125 possessions	115.7
League mean, 16 clubs	113.0
Rank, 16 clubs	13th of 16

Best shot-maker

Andronikos Egbuna

#83 · PG

26/51shots

62points

+5.6vs expected

How we counted it

26 made of 51, 10 of them threes	26/51
Points: 2 × 26 + 10	62
His shots are worth (expected)	56.4
Above expected	62 − 56.4 = +5.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 16th of 16

ANR 50.1 %

League 54.3 %

How we counted it

Anemomyloi Rodos: (432 + ½ × 132) ÷ 995	50.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	54.3 %
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 16

ANR 16.7 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Anemomyloi Rodos: 187 ÷ 1 121 possessions	16.7 %
League mean, 16 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	6th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 16

ANR 26.4 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Anemomyloi Rodos: 145 ÷ (145 + 405)	26.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	9th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 16

ANR 24.3 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Anemomyloi Rodos: 242 tries ÷ 995 shots	24.3 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−35.8

Over 6 games Anemomyloi Rodos's shots were worth 425.8 points and they scored 390 from the floor: 6.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−35.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 165 + 60	390
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	425.8
Shot-making	−35.8
A game	−5.97

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Anemomyloi Rodos
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 224 league shots	14	0.79	11.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 307	5	0.82	4.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	11	0.84	9.3
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 209 league shots	14	0.80	11.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 268	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up44 % of 436 league shots	34	0.89	30.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	7	0.86	6.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	2	0.86	1.7
Rim · Drive63 % of 936 league shots	62	1.26	78.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 508	13	1.24	16.1
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 357 league shots	15	1.23	18.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 508	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Post-up58 % of 245 league shots	17	1.16	19.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 300	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 300	3	1.13	3.4
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 300	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Catch and shoot62 % of 221 league shots	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	10	1.23	12.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	3	1.23	3.7
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	11	1.13	12.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	3	1.13	3.4
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 690	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 466 league shots	88	1.04	91.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 235 league shots	13	1.11	14.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break38 % of 258 league shots	12	1.14	13.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 012	3	1.07	3.2
Three · Pull-up33 % of 330 league shots	24	0.98	23.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	9	0.99	8.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	1	0.99	1.0
Total adds up	400	1.06	425.8

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Where Anemomyloi Rodos shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

462 of 462 shots shown

40.7%

188 of 462 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 92 / 157 59% · avg 1.9 ft 54 of the 92 makes assisted league 63% 184pts

MID 28 / 112 25% · avg 14.7 ft 11 of the 28 makes assisted league 41% 56pts

THREE 68 / 193 35% · avg 25.4 ft 56 of the 68 makes assisted league 36% 204pts

188 of 462 from the floor, 444 points, + 95 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

121 of 188 makes were assisted (64%): 54 + 11 + 56.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Anemomyloi Rodos

34% 23% 43%

League

36% 21% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Anemomyloi Rodos

32% 9% 35% 24%

League

32% 41% 19%

Anemomyloi Rodos lean on pull-ups: 24.3 % of its shots against the league's 19.0 %.

How we counted it

Anemomyloi Rodos: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	128 drives + 35 post-ups + 140 catch and shoot + 97 pull-ups = 400

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Andronikos Egbuna PG 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/51 shots 56.4 expected 62 scored ▲ +5.6

Oğuzhan Dobrić SG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/60 shots 63.2 expected 62 scored ▼ −1.2

Gregoris Vahčič SG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/89 shots 91.0 expected 85 scored ▼ −6.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.