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Armateurs La Rochelle

Founded 1942 in La Rochelle

Salle des Minimes, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Armateurs La Rochelle's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Armateurs La Rochelle's points say about 7 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

6.5Points say

77.9Scored a game

77.8Allowed a game

+0.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 013
Points allowed	1 012
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9990
To the power of 14	0.9863
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.9863)	50.35%
× 13 games played	6.54
Wins the points say	6.5 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Armateurs La Rochelle won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

53.3 %

Armateurs La Rochelle shoot 53.3 % effective. The league shoots 50.6 %. That is 1st of 14.

ALR 53.3 %

League 50.6 %

How we counted it

Armateurs La Rochelle: (371 + ½ × 134) ÷ 822	53.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

Careless with the ball

19.0 %

Armateurs La Rochelle give it away on 19.0 % of trips against the league's 17.2 %. Fewer is better: 13th of 14.

ALR 19.0 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Armateurs La Rochelle: 184 ÷ 968 possessions	19.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

21.9

Armateurs La Rochelle attempt 21.9 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 24.8, so 12th of 14.

ALR 21.9 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Armateurs La Rochelle: 180 tries ÷ 822 shots	21.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Élie Sahil

#10 · SF

42/74shots

103points

+26.6vs expected

How we counted it

42 made of 74, 19 of them threes	42/74
Points: 2 × 42 + 19	103
His shots are worth (expected)	76.4
Above expected	103 − 76.4 = +26.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 14

ALR 53.3 %

League 50.6 %

How we counted it

Armateurs La Rochelle: (371 + ½ × 134) ÷ 822	53.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 13th of 14

ALR 19.0 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Armateurs La Rochelle: 184 ÷ 968 possessions	19.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 14

ALR 23.5 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Armateurs La Rochelle: 101 ÷ (101 + 329)	23.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 14

ALR 21.9 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Armateurs La Rochelle: 180 tries ÷ 822 shots	21.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+45.4

Over 6 games Armateurs La Rochelle's shots were worth 366.6 points and they scored 412 from the floor: 7.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+45.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 173 + 66	412
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	366.6
Shot-making	+45.4
A game	+7.57

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Armateurs La Rochelle
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 286	13	0.90	11.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 286	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 286	5	0.90	4.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 169	3	0.75	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 212 league shots	16	0.77	12.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 273	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 273	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up31 % of 369 league shots	24	0.62	15.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 463	5	0.64	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 463	2	0.64	1.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 463	1	0.64	0.6
Rim · Drive59 % of 824 league shots	61	1.19	72.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 291	9	1.20	10.8
Rim · Drive · fast break59 % of 292 league shots	22	1.18	26.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 291	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	4	1.21	4.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 210	8	1.26	10.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 210	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 210	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	1	1.21	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 323	12	1.00	12.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 323	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 323	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 323	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 372 league shots	111	0.99	110.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance39 % of 231 league shots	10	1.18	11.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 827	11	1.03	11.3
Three · Pull-up29 % of 269 league shots	22	0.86	18.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 355	4	0.85	3.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 355	2	0.85	1.7
Total adds up	365	1.00	366.6

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Where Armateurs La Rochelle shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

365 of 365 shots shown

47.4%

173 of 365 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 74 / 116 64% · avg 2.0 ft 41 of the 74 makes assisted league 61% 148pts

MID 33 / 72 46% · avg 14.9 ft 16 of the 33 makes assisted league 38% 66pts

THREE 66 / 177 37% · avg 25.3 ft 59 of the 66 makes assisted league 33% 198pts

173 of 365 from the floor, 412 points, + 72 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

116 of 173 makes were assisted (67%): 41 + 16 + 59.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Armateurs La Rochelle

32% 20% 48%

League

34% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Armateurs La Rochelle

35% 44% 18%

League

32% 44% 17%

How we counted it

Armateurs La Rochelle: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	129 drives + 11 post-ups + 161 catch and shoot + 64 pull-ups = 365

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Élie Sahil SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

42/74 shots 76.4 expected 103 scored ▲ +26.6

Alberto Castaño PG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

41/94 shots 92.6 expected 100 scored ▲ +7.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.