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Arrainak Hondarribia

Founded 1985 in Hondarribia

Pabellón de Amute, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Arrainak Hondarribia's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Arrainak Hondarribia's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

4.0Points say

70.2Scored a game

74.3Allowed a game

−4.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	912
Points allowed	966
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0592
To the power of 14	2.2374
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.2374)	30.89%
× 13 games played	4.02
Wins the points say	4.0 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Arrainak Hondarribia won 0 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

47.3 %

Arrainak Hondarribia shoot 47.3 % effective. The league shoots 48.9 %. That is 11th of 14.

AHO 47.3 %

League 48.9 %

How we counted it

Arrainak Hondarribia: (351 + ½ × 91) ÷ 839	47.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

19.9

Arrainak Hondarribia attempt 19.9 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 21.1, so 11th of 14.

AHO 19.9 %

League 21.1 %

How we counted it

Arrainak Hondarribia: 167 tries ÷ 839 shots	19.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

98.8

Arrainak Hondarribia score 98.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 102.3. That is 10th of 14.

AHO 98.8

League 102.3

How we counted it

100 × 912 points ÷ 923 possessions	98.8
League mean, 14 clubs	102.3
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Best shot-maker

Xoán Fox

#12 · PG

62/101shots

147points

+44.8vs expected

How we counted it

62 made of 101, 23 of them threes	62/101
Points: 2 × 62 + 23	147
His shots are worth (expected)	102.2
Above expected	147 − 102.2 = +44.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 14

AHO 47.3 %

League 48.9 %

How we counted it

Arrainak Hondarribia: (351 + ½ × 91) ÷ 839	47.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 14

AHO 16.6 %

League 16.1 %

How we counted it

Arrainak Hondarribia: 153 ÷ 923 possessions	16.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 14

AHO 25.6 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Arrainak Hondarribia: 119 ÷ (119 + 346)	25.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 11th of 14

AHO 19.9 %

League 21.1 %

How we counted it

Arrainak Hondarribia: 167 tries ÷ 839 shots	19.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+21.1

Over 6 games Arrainak Hondarribia's shots were worth 379.9 points and they scored 401 from the floor: 3.5 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+21.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 174 + 53	401
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	379.9
Shot-making	+21.1
A game	+3.51

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Arrainak Hondarribia
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive45 % of 234 league shots	19	0.91	17.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 331	2	0.83	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 331	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 331	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 209	11	0.74	8.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 209	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 267	8	0.77	6.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 267	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 267	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up33 % of 359 league shots	32	0.66	21.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 469	7	0.70	4.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 469	5	0.70	3.5
Rim · Drive60 % of 932 league shots	73	1.19	87.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 361	15	1.21	18.2
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 244 league shots	14	1.31	18.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 361	3	1.21	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	11	1.23	13.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	10	1.23	12.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	8	1.23	9.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 381	9	0.90	8.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 381	2	0.90	1.8
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 430 league shots	97	0.90	87.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance26 % of 265 league shots	17	0.79	13.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 901	12	0.89	10.6
Three · Pull-up31 % of 277 league shots	14	0.92	12.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 352	2	0.90	1.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 352	1	0.90	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 352	1	0.90	0.9
Total adds up	391	0.97	379.9

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Where Arrainak Hondarribia shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

391 of 391 shots shown

44.5%

174 of 391 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 93 / 139 67% · avg 2.1 ft 47 of the 93 makes assisted league 61% 186pts

MID 28 / 97 29% · avg 14.1 ft 14 of the 28 makes assisted league 39% 56pts

THREE 53 / 155 34% · avg 25.3 ft 48 of the 53 makes assisted league 30% 159pts

174 of 391 from the floor, 401 points, + 54 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

109 of 174 makes were assisted (63%): 47 + 14 + 48.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Arrainak Hondarribia

36% 25% 40%

League

33% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Arrainak Hondarribia

37% 39% 18%

League

34% 43% 17%

How we counted it

Arrainak Hondarribia: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	143 drives + 25 post-ups + 153 catch and shoot + 70 pull-ups = 391

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Xoán Fox PG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

62/101 shots 102.2 expected 147 scored ▲ +44.8

Jorge Isa SG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

39/103 shots 94.8 expected 94 scored ▼ −0.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.