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Aşçılar Bolu

Founded 1959 in Bolu

Abant Yolu Salonu, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Aşçılar Bolu's wins trail its points

−1.8 wins

Aşçılar Bolu's points say about 10 wins in 18 league games. It has 8. The table has been a little unkind.

8Wins so far

9.8Points say

75.9Scored a game

74.9Allowed a game

+0.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 366
Points allowed	1 349
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9876
To the power of 14	0.8392
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8392)	54.37%
× 18 games played	9.79
Wins the points say	9.8 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−1.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Aşçılar Bolu won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

16.1 %

Aşçılar Bolu give it away on 16.1 % of trips against the league's 16.9 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 10.

ASB 16.1 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Aşçılar Bolu: 211 ÷ 1 311 possessions	16.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Strength

A solid defence

102.6

Aşçılar Bolu let in 102.6 per 100 trips against the league's 105.9. Lower is better: 3rd of 10.

ASB 102.6

League 105.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 349 allowed ÷ 1 315 possessions	102.6
League mean, 10 clubs	105.9
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Weakness

Cold shooting

49.5 %

Aşçılar Bolu shoot 49.5 % effective. The league shoots 50.7 %. That is 8th of 10.

ASB 49.5 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Aşçılar Bolu: (501 + ½ × 141) ÷ 1 155	49.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Best shot-maker

Olivier Cobb

#61 · SG

71/156shots

168points

+15.9vs expected

How we counted it

71 made of 156, 26 of them threes	71/156
Points: 2 × 71 + 26	168
His shots are worth (expected)	152.1
Above expected	168 − 152.1 = +15.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 10

ASB 49.5 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Aşçılar Bolu: (501 + ½ × 141) ÷ 1 155	49.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 10

ASB 16.1 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Aşçılar Bolu: 211 ÷ 1 311 possessions	16.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 10

ASB 25.4 %

League 26.6 %

How we counted it

Aşçılar Bolu: 157 ÷ (157 + 460)	25.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 5th of 10

ASB 24.5 %

League 24.0 %

How we counted it

Aşçılar Bolu: 283 tries ÷ 1 155 shots	24.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	24.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	5th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+18.8

Over 8 games Aşçılar Bolu's shots were worth 515.2 points and they scored 534 from the floor: 2.4 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+18.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 234 + 66	534
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	515.2
Shot-making	+18.8
A game	+2.35

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Aşçılar Bolu
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	28	0.72	20.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	14	0.67	9.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	2	0.67	1.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	3	0.67	2.0
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	25	0.75	18.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	3	0.75	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	5	0.75	3.7
Mid-range · Pull-up31 % of 363 league shots	35	0.62	21.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 484	7	0.61	4.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 484	4	0.61	2.4
Rim · Drive58 % of 797 league shots	90	1.17	105.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 222	17	1.19	20.2
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 249 league shots	22	1.25	27.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 222	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	19	1.19	22.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	5	1.19	5.9
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	23	1.25	28.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	8	1.25	10.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	6	1.20	7.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 234 league shots	102	0.99	100.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 218 league shots	21	0.85	17.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 675	18	0.97	17.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 675	6	0.97	5.8
Three · Pull-up35 % of 272 league shots	17	1.06	18.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 362	5	1.06	5.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 362	3	1.06	3.2
Total adds up	520	0.99	515.2

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Where Aşçılar Bolu shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

520 of 520 shots shown

45.0%

234 of 520 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 124 / 209 59% · avg 2.0 ft 66 of the 124 makes assisted league 61% 248pts

MID 44 / 134 33% · avg 14.3 ft 23 of the 44 makes assisted league 37% 88pts

THREE 66 / 177 37% · avg 25.2 ft 57 of the 66 makes assisted league 33% 198pts

234 of 520 from the floor, 534 points, + 99 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

146 of 234 makes were assisted (62%): 66 + 23 + 57.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Aşçılar Bolu

40% 26% 34%

League

35% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Aşçılar Bolu

33% 9% 41% 17%

League

32% 43% 19%

How we counted it

Aşçılar Bolu: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	172 drives + 45 post-ups + 213 catch and shoot + 90 pull-ups = 520

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Olivier Cobb SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

71/156 shots 152.1 expected 168 scored ▲ +15.9

Nejat Nedić SG 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/56 shots 53.2 expected 60 scored ▲ +6.8

Emre Gün PG 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

56/121 shots 124.1 expected 129 scored ▲ +4.9

Klimis Mbanefo SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/62 shots 62.0 expected 65 scored ▲ +3.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.