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Bagres Clorinda

Founded 1956 in Clorinda

Gimnasio del Pilcomayo, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Bagres Clorinda's wins match its points

−0.4 wins

Bagres Clorinda's points say about 9 wins in 22 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

9.4Points say

74.9Scored a game

76.5Allowed a game

−1.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 648
Points allowed	1 683
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0212
To the power of 14	1.3421
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.3421)	42.70%
× 22 games played	9.39
Wins the points say	9.4 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Bagres Clorinda won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

26.2

Bagres Clorinda attempt 26.2 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.8, so 1st of 12.

BCL 26.2 %

League 22.8 %

How we counted it

Bagres Clorinda: 372 tries ÷ 1 422 shots	26.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Weakness

Cold shooting

48.4 %

Bagres Clorinda shoot 48.4 % effective. The league shoots 50.7 %. That is 11th of 12.

BCL 48.4 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Bagres Clorinda: (605 + ½ × 166) ÷ 1 422	48.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

101.2

Bagres Clorinda score 101.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.1. That is 10th of 12.

BCL 101.2

League 105.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 648 points ÷ 1 629 possessions	101.2
League mean, 12 clubs	105.1
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Best shot-maker

Sebastián Enemuo

#18 · PG

54/91shots

128points

+34.9vs expected

How we counted it

54 made of 91, 20 of them threes	54/91
Points: 2 × 54 + 20	128
His shots are worth (expected)	93.1
Above expected	128 − 93.1 = +34.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 12

BCL 48.4 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Bagres Clorinda: (605 + ½ × 166) ÷ 1 422	48.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 12

BCL 17.1 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Bagres Clorinda: 278 ÷ 1 629 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 12

BCL 25.7 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Bagres Clorinda: 202 ÷ (202 + 584)	25.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 12

BCL 26.2 %

League 22.8 %

How we counted it

Bagres Clorinda: 372 tries ÷ 1 422 shots	26.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−20.0

Over 9 games Bagres Clorinda's shots were worth 576.0 points and they scored 556 from the floor: 2.2 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−20.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 243 + 70	556
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	576.0
Shot-making	−20.0
A game	−2.22

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Bagres Clorinda
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 232 league shots	16	0.77	12.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	5	0.76	3.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	6	0.76	4.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 482	13	0.73	9.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 482	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	17	0.70	11.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	8	0.70	5.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	3	0.70	2.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 530 league shots	49	0.75	37.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 694	8	0.76	6.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 694	8	0.76	6.0
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 175 league shots	96	1.21	116.3
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 200 league shots	18	1.14	20.5
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 362 league shots	26	1.34	34.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 784	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Post-up57 % of 256 league shots	8	1.14	9.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 307	4	1.09	4.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	16	1.25	19.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	5	1.25	6.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	10	1.22	12.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	5	1.22	6.1
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	14	1.02	14.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 698 league shots	136	1.04	141.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance38 % of 308 league shots	15	1.13	17.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 255 league shots	23	1.08	24.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 298	3	1.05	3.2
Three · Pull-up30 % of 374 league shots	23	0.91	21.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 526	7	0.97	6.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 526	5	0.97	4.9
Total adds up	560	1.03	576.0

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Where Bagres Clorinda shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

627 of 627 shots shown

43.1%

270 of 627 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 140 / 216 65% · avg 1.9 ft 74 of the 140 makes assisted league 61% 280pts

MID 57 / 155 37% · avg 14.0 ft 22 of the 57 makes assisted league 36% 114pts

THREE 73 / 256 29% · avg 25.3 ft 64 of the 73 makes assisted league 33% 219pts

270 of 627 from the floor, 613 points, + 144 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

160 of 270 makes were assisted (59%): 74 + 22 + 64.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Bagres Clorinda

35% 24% 41%

League

36% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Bagres Clorinda

34% 41% 21%

League

33% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Bagres Clorinda: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	188 drives + 27 post-ups + 229 catch and shoot + 116 pull-ups = 560

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Sebastián Enemuo PG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.7
Contract ends: End of season 3

54/91 shots 93.1 expected 128 scored ▲ +34.9

Lovrenc Šavc PG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 1

45/91 shots 94.4 expected 100 scored ▲ +5.6

Gonzalo Crépin Injured SF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/58 shots 58.6 expected 59 scored ▲ +0.4

Hernán Dias SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

58/135 shots 140.6 expected 137 scored ▼ −3.6

Walter Klein C 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

20/58 shots 59.5 expected 46 scored ▼ −13.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.