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Balseros Santa Fe

Founded 1922 in Santa Fe

Estadio de la Laguna Setúbal, holding 9 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Balseros Santa Fe's wins run ahead of its points

+1.4 wins

Balseros Santa Fe's points say about 14 wins in 19 league games. It has 15. The table has been a little kind.

15Wins so far

13.6Points say

95.4Scored a game

89.2Allowed a game

+6.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 812
Points allowed	1 695
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9354
To the power of 14	0.3928
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3928)	71.80%
× 19 games played	13.64
Wins the points say	13.6 adds up

Wins so far	15
Difference	+1.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Balseros Santa Fe won 5 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

124.3

Balseros Santa Fe score 124.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 116.0. That is 1st of 20.

BSF 124.3

League 116.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 812 points ÷ 1 458 possessions	124.3
League mean, 20 clubs	116.0
Rank, 20 clubs	1st of 20

Strength

Hot shooting

60.0 %

Balseros Santa Fe shoot 60.0 % effective. The league shoots 56.7 %. That is 1st of 20.

BSF 60.0 %

League 56.7 %

How we counted it

Balseros Santa Fe: (625 + ½ × 195) ÷ 1 205	60.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	56.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	1st of 20

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

35.8

Balseros Santa Fe attempt 35.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 31.6, so 3rd of 20.

BSF 35.8 %

League 31.6 %

How we counted it

Balseros Santa Fe: 431 tries ÷ 1 205 shots	35.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	31.6 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

Best shot-maker

Marcio Lemos

#46 · PG

39/67shots

93points

+15.0vs expected

How we counted it

39 made of 67, 15 of them threes	39/67
Points: 2 × 39 + 15	93
His shots are worth (expected)	78.0
Above expected	93 − 78.0 = +15.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 20

BSF 60.0 %

League 56.7 %

How we counted it

Balseros Santa Fe: (625 + ½ × 195) ÷ 1 205	60.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	56.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	1st of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 20

BSF 18.4 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Balseros Santa Fe: 269 ÷ 1 458 possessions	18.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	12th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 20

BSF 28.4 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Balseros Santa Fe: 159 ÷ (159 + 400)	28.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	6th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 20

BSF 35.8 %

League 31.6 %

How we counted it

Balseros Santa Fe: 431 tries ÷ 1 205 shots	35.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	31.6 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−5.3

Over 8 games Balseros Santa Fe's shots were worth 547.3 points and they scored 542 from the floor: 0.7 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−5.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 239 + 64	542
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	547.3
Shot-making	−5.3
A game	−0.66

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Balseros Santa Fe
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive45 % of 285 league shots	11	0.91	10.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 422	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 422	7	0.90	6.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 422	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Post-up34 % of 241 league shots	16	0.68	10.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 312	2	0.68	1.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 312	1	0.68	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot41 % of 320 league shots	21	0.82	17.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 424	2	0.85	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 424	2	0.85	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 661 league shots	33	0.80	26.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 916	5	0.81	4.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 916	3	0.81	2.4
Rim · Drive65 % of 1 603 league shots	85	1.30	110.3
Rim · Drive · second chance61 % of 218 league shots	12	1.23	14.8
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 612 league shots	23	1.33	30.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 2 510	3	1.30	3.9
Rim · Post-up65 % of 381 league shots	22	1.30	28.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 471	2	1.31	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 415 league shots	19	1.29	24.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 675	7	1.33	9.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 675	9	1.33	12.0
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 325	11	1.29	14.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 325	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 325	3	1.29	3.9
Three · Drive34 % of 211 league shots	7	1.02	7.2
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 328	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 328	3	1.06	3.2
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 328	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 2 303 league shots	100	1.10	110.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 368 league shots	23	1.11	25.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break41 % of 458 league shots	19	1.24	23.5
Three · Pull-up32 % of 492 league shots	27	0.96	25.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 675	2	1.02	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 675	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 675	2	1.02	2.0
Total adds up	492	1.11	547.3

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Where Balseros Santa Fe shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

553 of 553 shots shown

50.3%

278 of 553 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 153 / 223 69% · avg 2.0 ft 88 of the 153 makes assisted league 65% 306pts

MID 50 / 117 43% · avg 14.8 ft 30 of the 50 makes assisted league 42% 100pts

THREE 75 / 213 35% · avg 25.2 ft 72 of the 75 makes assisted league 37% 225pts

278 of 553 from the floor, 631 points, + 178 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

190 of 278 makes were assisted (68%): 88 + 30 + 72.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Balseros Santa Fe

40% 21% 38%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Balseros Santa Fe

32% 9% 41% 18%

League

32% 42% 19%

How we counted it

Balseros Santa Fe: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	156 drives + 43 post-ups + 202 catch and shoot + 91 pull-ups = 492

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Marcio Lemos PG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

39/67 shots 78.0 expected 93 scored ▲ +15.0

Chester Cintra SF 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

47/89 shots 102.2 expected 112 scored ▲ +9.8

Jay Finley SG 34 y

Strong61–80

Age: 34
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

48/93 shots 101.3 expected 104 scored ▲ +2.7

Celso Luz SG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/55 shots 59.9 expected 60 scored ▲ +0.1

Jonas Lesauskas PF 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/59 shots 63.5 expected 60 scored ▼ −3.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.