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Barokeri Varaždin

Founded 1973 in Varaždin

Dvorana kod Starog grada, holding 8 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Barokeri Varaždin's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Barokeri Varaždin's points say about 14 wins in 22 league games. It has 14. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

14Wins so far

13.5Points say

89.3Scored a game

86.4Allowed a game

+2.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 965
Points allowed	1 901
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9674
To the power of 14	0.6290
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.6290)	61.39%
× 22 games played	13.50
Wins the points say	13.5 adds up

Wins so far	14
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Barokeri Varaždin won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

16.9 %

Barokeri Varaždin give it away on 16.9 % of trips against the league's 18.8 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 12.

BAV 16.9 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Barokeri Varaždin: 283 ÷ 1 678 possessions	16.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

Strong on the glass

29.1 %

Barokeri Varaždin win back 29.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.9 %. That is 1st of 12.

BAV 29.1 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Barokeri Varaždin: 212 ÷ (212 + 516)	29.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

36.5

Barokeri Varaždin attempt 36.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 31.5, so 1st of 12.

BAV 36.5 %

League 31.5 %

How we counted it

Barokeri Varaždin: 517 tries ÷ 1 416 shots	36.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	31.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Best shot-maker

Alfred Loiseau

#84 · SG

69/125shots

162points

+21.3vs expected

How we counted it

69 made of 125, 24 of them threes	69/125
Points: 2 × 69 + 24	162
His shots are worth (expected)	140.7
Above expected	162 − 140.7 = +21.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 12

BAV 54.4 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Barokeri Varaždin: (664 + ½ × 214) ÷ 1 416	54.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 12

BAV 16.9 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Barokeri Varaždin: 283 ÷ 1 678 possessions	16.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 12

BAV 29.1 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Barokeri Varaždin: 212 ÷ (212 + 516)	29.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 12

BAV 36.5 %

League 31.5 %

How we counted it

Barokeri Varaždin: 517 tries ÷ 1 416 shots	36.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	31.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−37.7

Over 11 games Barokeri Varaždin's shots were worth 768.7 points and they scored 731 from the floor: 3.4 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−37.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 313 + 105	731
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	768.7
Shot-making	−37.7
A game	−3.43

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Barokeri Varaždin
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 224 league shots	14	0.76	10.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	7	0.74	5.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	22	0.78	17.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 244 league shots	17	0.85	14.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 322	3	0.88	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 322	2	0.88	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 322	2	0.88	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up43 % of 541 league shots	39	0.85	33.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	7	0.86	6.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	9	0.86	7.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	2	0.86	1.7
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 269 league shots	93	1.22	113.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 027	20	1.22	24.5
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 502 league shots	44	1.29	57.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 027	6	1.22	7.3
Rim · Post-up58 % of 322 league shots	34	1.17	39.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	11	1.19	13.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 307 league shots	21	1.27	26.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	13	1.29	16.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	4	1.29	5.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	21	1.08	22.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	8	1.08	8.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	17	1.10	18.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	4	1.10	4.4
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	7	1.10	7.7
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	1	1.10	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 837 league shots	149	1.14	170.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 280 league shots	30	1.04	31.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break42 % of 363 league shots	24	1.25	29.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 2 557	4	1.15	4.6
Three · Pull-up39 % of 420 league shots	37	1.16	42.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	8	1.12	9.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	4	1.12	4.5
Total adds up	691	1.11	768.7

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Where Barokeri Varaždin shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

691 of 691 shots shown

45.3%

313 of 691 from the floor, 11 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 163 / 279 58% · avg 2.0 ft 92 of the 163 makes assisted league 63% 326pts

MID 45 / 127 35% · avg 14.0 ft 26 of the 45 makes assisted league 41% 90pts

THREE 105 / 285 37% · avg 25.1 ft 98 of the 105 makes assisted league 38% 315pts

313 of 691 from the floor, 731 points, + 245 from the line

The dots cover 11 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

216 of 313 makes were assisted (69%): 92 + 26 + 98.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 11 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Barokeri Varaždin

40% 18% 41%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Barokeri Varaždin

31% 10% 39% 20%

League

32% 8% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Barokeri Varaždin: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	214 drives + 70 post-ups + 271 catch and shoot + 136 pull-ups = 691

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Alfred Loiseau Injured SG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

69/125 shots 140.7 expected 162 scored ▲ +21.3

Nedjeljko Isailović PG 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

38/74 shots 83.9 expected 89 scored ▲ +5.1

Gene Carlson PF 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/66 shots 72.9 expected 77 scored ▲ +4.1

Jura Rijavec C 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

44/95 shots 107.4 expected 104 scored ▼ −3.4

Drago Rakić PG 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/51 shots 52.3 expected 47 scored ▼ −5.3

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Ivan Mišić SF 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/64 shots 72.9 expected 62 scored ▼ −10.9

Oscar Burrows SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/72 shots 81.2 expected 73 scored ▼ −8.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.