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Bilogorci Bjelovar

Founded 1969 in Bjelovar

Dvorana pod Bilogorom, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Bilogorci Bjelovar's wins trail its points

−1.1 wins

Bilogorci Bjelovar's points say about 8 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little unkind.

7Wins so far

8.1Points say

83.6Scored a game

80.7Allowed a game

+2.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 087
Points allowed	1 049
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9650
To the power of 14	0.6076
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.6076)	62.20%
× 13 games played	8.09
Wins the points say	8.1 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−1.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Bilogorci Bjelovar won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

30.9 %

Bilogorci Bjelovar win back 30.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.5 %. That is 3rd of 14.

BIB 30.9 %

League 27.5 %

How we counted it

Bilogorci Bjelovar: 131 ÷ (131 + 293)	30.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Strength

A strong attack

111.4

Bilogorci Bjelovar score 111.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.6. That is 4th of 14.

BIB 111.4

League 109.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 087 points ÷ 976 possessions	111.4
League mean, 14 clubs	109.6
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Strength

A solid defence

107.8

Bilogorci Bjelovar let in 107.8 per 100 trips against the league's 109.6. Lower is better: 5th of 14.

BIB 107.8

League 109.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 049 allowed ÷ 973 possessions	107.8
League mean, 14 clubs	109.6
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Best shot-maker

Stjepan Smiljanić

#74 · SF

32/68shots

75points

+1.1vs expected

How we counted it

32 made of 68, 11 of them threes	32/68
Points: 2 × 32 + 11	75
His shots are worth (expected)	73.9
Above expected	75 − 73.9 = +1.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 14

BIB 53.4 %

League 53.0 %

How we counted it

Bilogorci Bjelovar: (397 + ½ × 113) ÷ 850	53.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	53.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 14

BIB 18.3 %

League 18.2 %

How we counted it

Bilogorci Bjelovar: 179 ÷ 976 possessions	18.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 14

BIB 30.9 %

League 27.5 %

How we counted it

Bilogorci Bjelovar: 131 ÷ (131 + 293)	30.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 14

BIB 26.5 %

League 27.4 %

How we counted it

Bilogorci Bjelovar: 225 tries ÷ 850 shots	26.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−34.5

Over 6 games Bilogorci Bjelovar's shots were worth 414.5 points and they scored 380 from the floor: 5.8 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−34.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 170 + 40	380
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	414.5
Shot-making	−34.5
A game	−5.76

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Bilogorci Bjelovar
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	9	0.74	6.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	13	0.77	10.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	6	0.77	4.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 214	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 214	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 214	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 348 league shots	21	0.80	16.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 488	4	0.79	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 488	4	0.79	3.2
Rim · Drive64 % of 862 league shots	60	1.28	76.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 367	12	1.25	15.0
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 322 league shots	15	1.25	18.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 367	3	1.25	3.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	22	1.25	27.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	7	1.25	8.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	17	1.30	22.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	2	1.30	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	6	1.30	7.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	2	1.30	2.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	8	1.26	10.1
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	4	1.26	5.0
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	6	1.00	6.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 238 league shots	86	1.07	92.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 666	14	1.04	14.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 201 league shots	13	1.16	15.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 666	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Pull-up29 % of 254 league shots	20	0.87	17.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 327	1	0.88	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 327	4	0.88	3.5
Total adds up	381	1.09	414.5

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Where Bilogorci Bjelovar shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

381 of 381 shots shown

44.6%

170 of 381 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 105 / 161 65% · avg 2.0 ft 74 of the 105 makes assisted league 62% 210pts

MID 25 / 70 36% · avg 13.7 ft 12 of the 25 makes assisted league 41% 50pts

THREE 40 / 150 27% · avg 25.2 ft 37 of the 40 makes assisted league 34% 120pts

170 of 381 from the floor, 380 points, + 81 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

123 of 170 makes were assisted (72%): 74 + 12 + 37.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Bilogorci Bjelovar

42% 18% 39%

League

38% 21% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Bilogorci Bjelovar

29% 14% 39% 18%

League

33% 8% 41% 18%

Bilogorci Bjelovar lean on post-ups: 13.6 % of its shots against the league's 8.1 %.

How we counted it

Bilogorci Bjelovar: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	111 drives + 52 post-ups + 150 catch and shoot + 68 pull-ups = 381

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Stjepan Smiljanić SF 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/68 shots 73.9 expected 75 scored ▲ +1.1

Eitvydas Jakubauskas SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

31/65 shots 71.6 expected 68 scored ▼ −3.6

Kristijan Lekić SG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/76 shots 82.7 expected 79 scored ▼ −3.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.