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Bitininkai Utena

Founded 1952 in Utena

Krašuonos salė, holding 6 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Bitininkai Utena's wins match its points

−0.5 wins

Bitininkai Utena's points say about 9 wins in 13 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.5Points say

88.0Scored a game

84.0Allowed a game

+4.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 144
Points allowed	1 092
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9545
To the power of 14	0.5214
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5214)	65.73%
× 13 games played	8.54
Wins the points say	8.5 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Bitininkai Utena won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

56.8 %

Bitininkai Utena shoot 56.8 % effective. The league shoots 53.7 %. That is 1st of 14.

BIU 56.8 %

League 53.7 %

How we counted it

Bitininkai Utena: (410 + ½ × 155) ÷ 859	56.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	53.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

A strong attack

114.3

Bitininkai Utena score 114.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.1. That is 2nd of 14.

BIU 114.3

League 110.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 144 points ÷ 1 001 possessions	114.3
League mean, 14 clubs	110.1
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

25.5

Bitininkai Utena attempt 25.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 27.2, so 11th of 14.

BIU 25.5 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Bitininkai Utena: 219 tries ÷ 859 shots	25.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Best shot-maker

Motiejus Gailius

#68 · SG

32/60shots

83points

+19.4vs expected

How we counted it

32 made of 60, 19 of them threes	32/60
Points: 2 × 32 + 19	83
His shots are worth (expected)	63.6
Above expected	83 − 63.6 = +19.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 14

BIU 56.8 %

League 53.7 %

How we counted it

Bitininkai Utena: (410 + ½ × 155) ÷ 859	56.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	53.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 14

BIU 18.1 %

League 17.7 %

How we counted it

Bitininkai Utena: 181 ÷ 1 001 possessions	18.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 14

BIU 26.8 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Bitininkai Utena: 118 ÷ (118 + 323)	26.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 11th of 14

BIU 25.5 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Bitininkai Utena: 219 tries ÷ 859 shots	25.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+27.3

Over 6 games Bitininkai Utena's shots were worth 432.7 points and they scored 460 from the floor: 4.5 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+27.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 194 + 72	460
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	432.7
Shot-making	+27.3
A game	+4.55

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Bitininkai Utena
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 232	9	0.80	7.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 232	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 232	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 232	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 073	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 073	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 073	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 234	18	0.87	15.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 234	3	0.87	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 234	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 357 league shots	18	0.81	14.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 476	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 476	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 476	1	0.78	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 793 league shots	66	1.22	80.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 247	6	1.21	7.3
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 303 league shots	26	1.25	32.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 248	7	1.28	9.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 248	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 248	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	14	1.24	17.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	12	1.24	14.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 965	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 965	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 965	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	13	1.04	13.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	3	1.04	3.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 231 league shots	107	1.06	113.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 688	14	1.03	14.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break33 % of 234 league shots	22	0.99	21.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 688	3	1.03	3.1
Three · Pull-up33 % of 264 league shots	19	0.98	18.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 364	4	1.01	4.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 364	2	1.01	2.0
Total adds up	404	1.07	432.7

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Where Bitininkai Utena shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

404 of 404 shots shown

48.0%

194 of 404 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 93 / 144 65% · avg 2.0 ft 54 of the 93 makes assisted league 62% 186pts

MID 29 / 69 42% · avg 14.6 ft 11 of the 29 makes assisted league 41% 58pts

THREE 72 / 191 38% · avg 25.5 ft 64 of the 72 makes assisted league 35% 216pts

194 of 404 from the floor, 460 points, + 83 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

129 of 194 makes were assisted (66%): 54 + 11 + 64.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Bitininkai Utena

36% 17% 47%

League

37% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Bitininkai Utena

32% 50% 14%

League

31% 43% 19%

How we counted it

Bitininkai Utena: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	130 drives + 16 post-ups + 200 catch and shoot + 58 pull-ups = 404

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Motiejus Gailius SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/60 shots 63.6 expected 83 scored ▲ +19.4

Rapolas Grinius SF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/58 shots 64.9 expected 75 scored ▲ +10.1

Gintautas Valenčič SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/69 shots 71.7 expected 74 scored ▲ +2.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.