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Bleicher Wuppertal

Founded 1968 in Wuppertal

Talachse-Halle, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Bleicher Wuppertal's wins match its points

−0.8 wins

Bleicher Wuppertal's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

5.8Points say

76.9Scored a game

78.1Allowed a game

−1.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 000
Points allowed	1 015
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0150
To the power of 14	1.2318
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.2318)	44.81%
× 13 games played	5.83
Wins the points say	5.8 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	−0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Bleicher Wuppertal won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.0 %

Bleicher Wuppertal win back 24.0 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.7 %. That is 13th of 14.

BLW 24.0 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Bleicher Wuppertal: 106 ÷ (106 + 336)	24.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

A leaky defence

106.8

Bleicher Wuppertal let in 106.8 per 100 trips against the league's 104.2. Lower is better: 12th of 14.

BLW 106.8

League 104.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 015 allowed ÷ 950 possessions	106.8
League mean, 14 clubs	104.2
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.5 %

Bleicher Wuppertal give it away on 16.5 % of trips against the league's 17.0 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 14.

BLW 16.5 %

League 17.0 %

How we counted it

Bleicher Wuppertal: 157 ÷ 950 possessions	16.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Best shot-maker

Gilbert Bittner

#75 · SG

41/89shots

91points

+2.2vs expected

How we counted it

41 made of 89, 9 of them threes	41/89
Points: 2 × 41 + 9	91
His shots are worth (expected)	88.8
Above expected	91 − 88.8 = +2.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 14

BLW 51.7 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Bleicher Wuppertal: (376 + ½ × 108) ÷ 831	51.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 14

BLW 16.5 %

League 17.0 %

How we counted it

Bleicher Wuppertal: 157 ÷ 950 possessions	16.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 13th of 14

BLW 24.0 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Bleicher Wuppertal: 106 ÷ (106 + 336)	24.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 14

BLW 23.7 %

League 24.1 %

How we counted it

Bleicher Wuppertal: 197 tries ÷ 831 shots	23.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−4.4

Over 6 games Bleicher Wuppertal's shots were worth 382.4 points and they scored 378 from the floor: 0.7 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−4.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 167 + 44	378
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	382.4
Shot-making	−4.4
A game	−0.73

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Bleicher Wuppertal
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 212 league shots	14	0.68	9.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 298	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 298	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 298	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 232	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 232	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot35 % of 203 league shots	20	0.71	14.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 262	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 262	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 394 league shots	33	0.78	25.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 534	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 534	2	0.78	1.6
Rim · Drive60 % of 884 league shots	61	1.20	73.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 394	12	1.22	14.7
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 311 league shots	19	1.23	23.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 394	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	17	1.20	20.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 227	6	1.17	7.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 227	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 227	4	1.17	4.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	3	1.20	3.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 188	10	0.97	9.7
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 300 league shots	104	1.05	109.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance30 % of 211 league shots	16	0.91	14.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 717	8	1.01	8.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 717	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Pull-up29 % of 242 league shots	12	0.87	10.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 334	2	0.85	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 334	2	0.85	1.7
Total adds up	376	1.02	382.4

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Where Bleicher Wuppertal shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

376 of 376 shots shown

44.4%

167 of 376 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 86 / 134 64% · avg 2.0 ft 47 of the 86 makes assisted league 61% 172pts

MID 37 / 87 43% · avg 14.5 ft 18 of the 37 makes assisted league 37% 74pts

THREE 44 / 155 28% · avg 25.3 ft 37 of the 44 makes assisted league 32% 132pts

167 of 376 from the floor, 378 points, + 77 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

102 of 167 makes were assisted (61%): 47 + 18 + 37.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Bleicher Wuppertal

36% 23% 41%

League

36% 23% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Bleicher Wuppertal

33% 43% 16%

League

34% 41% 18%

How we counted it

Bleicher Wuppertal: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	125 drives + 27 post-ups + 163 catch and shoot + 61 pull-ups = 376

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gilbert Bittner SG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/89 shots 88.8 expected 91 scored ▲ +2.2

Dejan Trošt PG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 2

44/95 shots 100.7 expected 98 scored ▼ −2.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.