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Boddenfischer Greifswald

Founded 1983 in Greifswald

Ryck-Halle, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Boddenfischer Greifswald's wins run ahead of its points

+1.9 wins

Boddenfischer Greifswald's points say about 3 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. The table has been a little kind.

5Wins so far

3.1Points say

68.0Scored a game

73.8Allowed a game

−5.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	884
Points allowed	960
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0860
To the power of 14	3.1730
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.1730)	23.96%
× 13 games played	3.12
Wins the points say	3.1 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+1.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Boddenfischer Greifswald won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

103.3

Boddenfischer Greifswald let in 103.3 per 100 trips against the league's 99.2. Lower is better: 12th of 14.

BFG 103.3

League 99.2

How we counted it

100 × 960 allowed ÷ 929 possessions	103.3
League mean, 14 clubs	99.2
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

45.6 %

Boddenfischer Greifswald shoot 45.6 % effective. The league shoots 46.8 %. That is 12th of 14.

BFG 45.6 %

League 46.8 %

How we counted it

Boddenfischer Greifswald: (346 + ½ × 97) ÷ 866	45.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	46.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

15.5

Boddenfischer Greifswald attempt 15.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 18.8, so 12th of 14.

BFG 15.5 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Boddenfischer Greifswald: 134 tries ÷ 866 shots	15.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Maximilian Kraus

#61 · SG

50/111shots

120points

+23.1vs expected

How we counted it

50 made of 111, 20 of them threes	50/111
Points: 2 × 50 + 20	120
His shots are worth (expected)	96.9
Above expected	120 − 96.9 = +23.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 14

BFG 45.6 %

League 46.8 %

How we counted it

Boddenfischer Greifswald: (346 + ½ × 97) ÷ 866	45.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	46.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 14

BFG 15.4 %

League 15.1 %

How we counted it

Boddenfischer Greifswald: 142 ÷ 922 possessions	15.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 14

BFG 26.4 %

League 25.6 %

How we counted it

Boddenfischer Greifswald: 129 ÷ (129 + 359)	26.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 14

BFG 15.5 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Boddenfischer Greifswald: 134 tries ÷ 866 shots	15.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+27.9

Over 6 games Boddenfischer Greifswald's shots were worth 351.1 points and they scored 379 from the floor: 4.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+27.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 164 + 51	379
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	351.1
Shot-making	+27.9
A game	+4.65

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Boddenfischer Greifswald
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive33 % of 219 league shots	15	0.67	10.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 332	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 332	14	0.67	9.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 1 368	11	0.64	7.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 1 368	1	0.64	0.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot29 % of 203 league shots	19	0.57	10.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 292	6	0.56	3.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 292	1	0.56	0.6
Mid-range · Pull-up32 % of 460 league shots	47	0.64	30.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 606	6	0.64	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 606	4	0.64	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 606	2	0.64	1.3
Rim · Drive57 % of 838 league shots	52	1.15	59.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 272	12	1.15	13.7
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 235 league shots	14	1.17	16.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 272	2	1.15	2.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	8	1.16	9.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	2	1.16	2.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	1	1.16	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	6	1.16	7.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	1	1.16	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	3	1.16	3.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	1	1.16	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	3	1.16	3.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	1	1.16	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	2	1.16	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 29 % of 2 432	4	0.88	3.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 29 % of 2 432	1	0.88	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot28 % of 1 429 league shots	88	0.85	75.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance30 % of 243 league shots	18	0.90	16.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 1 883	13	0.87	11.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 1 883	1	0.87	0.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 292 league shots	28	0.90	25.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 394	7	0.91	6.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 394	3	0.91	2.7
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 394	2	0.91	1.8
Total adds up	403	0.87	351.1

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Where Boddenfischer Greifswald shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

403 of 403 shots shown

40.7%

164 of 403 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 65 / 108 60% · avg 2.0 ft 31 of the 65 makes assisted league 58% 130pts

MID 48 / 130 37% · avg 14.8 ft 20 of the 48 makes assisted league 34% 96pts

THREE 51 / 165 31% · avg 25.2 ft 38 of the 51 makes assisted league 31% 153pts

164 of 403 from the floor, 379 points, + 41 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

89 of 164 makes were assisted (54%): 31 + 20 + 38.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Boddenfischer Greifswald

27% 32% 41%

League

31% 25% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Boddenfischer Greifswald

29% 39% 26%

League

32% 43% 20%

Boddenfischer Greifswald lean on pull-ups: 26.1 % of its shots against the league's 19.6 %.

How we counted it

Boddenfischer Greifswald: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	118 drives + 23 post-ups + 157 catch and shoot + 105 pull-ups = 403

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Maximilian Kraus SG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

50/111 shots 96.9 expected 120 scored ▲ +23.1

Gernot Adetola SF 26 y

Modest21–40

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

17/50 shots 41.5 expected 43 scored ▲ +1.5

Veit Gutmann PG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/80 shots 73.0 expected 70 scored ▼ −3.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.