Manage a club, start free

Bogračarji Lendava

Founded 1979 in Lendava

Dvorana v Goricah, holding 1 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Ahead of its points

Bogračarji Lendava's wins run ahead of its points

+1.3 wins

Bogračarji Lendava's points say about 5 wins in 18 league games. It has 6. The table has been a little kind.

6Wins so far

4.7Points say

75.5Scored a game

81.3Allowed a game

−5.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 359
Points allowed	1 463
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0765
To the power of 14	2.8077
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.8077)	26.26%
× 18 games played	4.73
Wins the points say	4.7 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	+1.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Bogračarji Lendava won 4 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Weakness

A leaky defence

112.0

Bogračarji Lendava let in 112.0 per 100 trips against the league's 105.2. Lower is better: 10th of 10.

BOL 112.0

League 105.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 463 allowed ÷ 1 306 possessions	112.0
League mean, 10 clubs	105.2
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Weakness

Few trips to the line

16.4

Bogračarji Lendava attempt 16.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.2, so 10th of 10.

BOL 16.4 %

League 22.2 %

How we counted it

Bogračarji Lendava: 197 tries ÷ 1 202 shots	16.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	22.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Weakness

Weak on the glass

23.8 %

Bogračarji Lendava win back 23.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.3 %. That is 9th of 10.

BOL 23.8 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Bogračarji Lendava: 153 ÷ (153 + 491)	23.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Best shot-maker

Konrad Tadić

#11 · PF

38/69shots

90points

+22.3vs expected

How we counted it

38 made of 69, 14 of them threes	38/69
Points: 2 × 38 + 14	90
His shots are worth (expected)	67.7
Above expected	90 − 67.7 = +22.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 10

BOL 50.7 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Bogračarji Lendava: (521 + ½ × 178) ÷ 1 202	50.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 10

BOL 15.6 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Bogračarji Lendava: 204 ÷ 1 305 possessions	15.6 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 10

BOL 23.8 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Bogračarji Lendava: 153 ÷ (153 + 491)	23.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 10

BOL 16.4 %

League 22.2 %

How we counted it

Bogračarji Lendava: 197 tries ÷ 1 202 shots	16.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	22.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+29.8

Over 8 games Bogračarji Lendava's shots were worth 525.2 points and they scored 555 from the floor: 3.7 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+29.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 237 + 81	555
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	525.2
Shot-making	+29.8
A game	+3.72

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Bogračarji Lendava
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 216 league shots	19	0.74	14.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 317	4	0.76	3.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 317	5	0.76	3.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 317	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 258	11	0.76	8.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 258	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot38 % of 203 league shots	11	0.76	8.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 280	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 280	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 373 league shots	31	0.83	25.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 498	4	0.79	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 498	4	0.79	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 498	1	0.79	0.8
Rim · Drive58 % of 819 league shots	83	1.17	97.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 251	12	1.21	14.5
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 249 league shots	29	1.28	37.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 251	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	14	1.23	17.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	12	1.16	14.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	3	1.16	3.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	8	1.16	9.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	1	1.16	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	4	1.23	4.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	9	1.01	9.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	2	1.01	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	2	1.01	2.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	2	1.01	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 291 league shots	149	1.05	155.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 207 league shots	20	0.84	16.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break32 % of 204 league shots	19	0.97	18.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 728	2	1.01	2.0
Three · Pull-up31 % of 254 league shots	27	0.94	25.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 345	3	0.95	2.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 345	2	0.95	1.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 345	1	0.95	1.0
Total adds up	510	1.03	525.2

⁠

Where Bogračarji Lendava shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

510 of 510 shots shown

46.5%

237 of 510 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 114 / 176 65% · avg 2.0 ft 57 of the 114 makes assisted league 61% 228pts

MID 42 / 96 44% · avg 14.8 ft 22 of the 42 makes assisted league 38% 84pts

THREE 81 / 238 34% · avg 25.1 ft 76 of the 81 makes assisted league 32% 243pts

237 of 510 from the floor, 555 points, + 71 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

155 of 237 makes were assisted (65%): 57 + 22 + 76.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Bogračarji Lendava

35% 19% 47%

League

34% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Bogračarji Lendava

33% 45% 16%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Bogračarji Lendava: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	168 drives + 31 post-ups + 229 catch and shoot + 82 pull-ups = 510

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Konrad Tadić PF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

38/69 shots 67.7 expected 90 scored ▲ +22.3

Filaretos Çevik SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

49/87 shots 94.9 expected 113 scored ▲ +18.1

Aljoša Bezjak PG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

32/59 shots 62.7 expected 77 scored ▲ +14.3

Gregor Omotoso SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/67 shots 64.8 expected 64 scored ▼ −0.8

Jurij Lalić PG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/67 shots 67.6 expected 65 scored ▼ −2.6

⁠

Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Vasco Cabello SF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

20/57 shots 60.9 expected 46 scored ▼ −14.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.