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Bonnetiers Troyes

Founded 1956 in Troyes

Salle de la Barse, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Bonnetiers Troyes's wins match its points

−0.8 wins

Bonnetiers Troyes's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

4.8Points say

77.7Scored a game

80.7Allowed a game

−3.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 010
Points allowed	1 049
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0386
To the power of 14	1.6996
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.6996)	37.04%
× 13 games played	4.82
Wins the points say	4.8 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	−0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Bonnetiers Troyes won 0 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.1 %

Bonnetiers Troyes give it away on 18.1 % of trips against the league's 16.2 %. Fewer is better: 14th of 14.

BOT 18.1 %

League 16.2 %

How we counted it

Bonnetiers Troyes: 173 ÷ 958 possessions	18.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

105.4

Bonnetiers Troyes score 105.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 108.2. That is 11th of 14.

BOT 105.4

League 108.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 010 points ÷ 958 possessions	105.4
League mean, 14 clubs	108.2
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Weakness

A leaky defence

109.4

Bonnetiers Troyes let in 109.4 per 100 trips against the league's 108.2. Lower is better: 11th of 14.

BOT 109.4

League 108.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 049 allowed ÷ 959 possessions	109.4
League mean, 14 clubs	108.2
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Best shot-maker

Arthur Breton

#14 · SG

64/118shots

157points

+33.3vs expected

How we counted it

64 made of 118, 29 of them threes	64/118
Points: 2 × 64 + 29	157
His shots are worth (expected)	123.7
Above expected	157 − 123.7 = +33.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 10th of 14

BOT 51.5 %

League 51.9 %

How we counted it

Bonnetiers Troyes: (372 + ½ × 120) ÷ 839	51.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	51.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 14th of 14

BOT 18.1 %

League 16.2 %

How we counted it

Bonnetiers Troyes: 173 ÷ 958 possessions	18.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 14

BOT 26.8 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Bonnetiers Troyes: 117 ÷ (117 + 320)	26.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 5th of 14

BOT 23.7 %

League 23.3 %

How we counted it

Bonnetiers Troyes: 199 tries ÷ 839 shots	23.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+16.4

Over 6 games Bonnetiers Troyes's shots were worth 371.6 points and they scored 388 from the floor: 2.7 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+16.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 164 + 60	388
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	371.6
Shot-making	+16.4
A game	+2.73

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Bonnetiers Troyes
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 271	16	0.80	12.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 271	4	0.80	3.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 271	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 271	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 192	9	0.74	6.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 192	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 210 league shots	10	0.79	7.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 278	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 278	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 373 league shots	27	0.72	19.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 496	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 496	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 496	1	0.72	0.7
Rim · Drive63 % of 820 league shots	55	1.26	69.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 273	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 276 league shots	17	1.33	22.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 273	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 216	9	1.19	10.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 216	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 213	9	1.24	11.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 213	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 213	8	1.24	9.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 213	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 795	6	1.27	7.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 795	4	1.27	5.1
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 303	7	1.04	7.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 303	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 338 league shots	79	1.06	83.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 206 league shots	11	0.93	10.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break41 % of 203 league shots	14	1.23	17.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 778	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Pull-up32 % of 305 league shots	27	0.96	26.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 389	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 389	2	0.97	1.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 389	1	0.97	1.0
Total adds up	355	1.05	371.6

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Where Bonnetiers Troyes shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

355 of 355 shots shown

46.2%

164 of 355 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 72 / 120 60% · avg 1.9 ft 42 of the 72 makes assisted league 62% 144pts

MID 32 / 89 36% · avg 14.4 ft 12 of the 32 makes assisted league 38% 64pts

THREE 60 / 146 41% · avg 25.4 ft 56 of the 60 makes assisted league 34% 180pts

164 of 355 from the floor, 388 points, + 91 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

110 of 164 makes were assisted (67%): 42 + 12 + 56.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Bonnetiers Troyes

34% 25% 41%

League

34% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Bonnetiers Troyes

32% 41% 22%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Bonnetiers Troyes: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	113 drives + 21 post-ups + 144 catch and shoot + 77 pull-ups = 355

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Arthur Breton SG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

64/118 shots 123.7 expected 157 scored ▲ +33.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.