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Botteghe Firenze

Founded 1958 in Firenze

Palazzetto sull'Arno, holding 9 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Botteghe Firenze's wins run ahead of its points

+1.7 wins

Botteghe Firenze's points say about 7 wins in 15 league games. It has 9. The table has been a little kind.

9Wins so far

7.3Points say

90.7Scored a game

91.1Allowed a game

−0.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 361
Points allowed	1 366
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0037
To the power of 14	1.0527
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0527)	48.72%
× 15 games played	7.31
Wins the points say	7.3 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	+1.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Botteghe Firenze won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

58.2 %

Botteghe Firenze shoot 58.2 % effective. The league shoots 56.0 %. That is 2nd of 16.

BOF 58.2 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Botteghe Firenze: (491 + ½ × 162) ÷ 983	58.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.8 %

Botteghe Firenze win back 22.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.0 %. That is 15th of 16.

BOF 22.8 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Botteghe Firenze: 106 ÷ (106 + 358)	22.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	15th of 16

Weakness

Few trips to the line

27.8

Botteghe Firenze attempt 27.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 30.5, so 14th of 16.

BOF 27.8 %

League 30.5 %

How we counted it

Botteghe Firenze: 273 tries ÷ 983 shots	27.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	30.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

Best shot-maker

Tancredi Doğru

#68 · SG

60/99shots

139points

+29.3vs expected

How we counted it

60 made of 99, 19 of them threes	60/99
Points: 2 × 60 + 19	139
His shots are worth (expected)	109.7
Above expected	139 − 109.7 = +29.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 16

BOF 58.2 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Botteghe Firenze: (491 + ½ × 162) ÷ 983	58.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 5th of 16

BOF 17.4 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Botteghe Firenze: 202 ÷ 1 161 possessions	17.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 16 clubs	5th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 15th of 16

BOF 22.8 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Botteghe Firenze: 106 ÷ (106 + 358)	22.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	15th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 14th of 16

BOF 27.8 %

League 30.5 %

How we counted it

Botteghe Firenze: 273 tries ÷ 983 shots	27.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	30.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+42.3

Over 7 games Botteghe Firenze's shots were worth 488.7 points and they scored 531 from the floor: 6.0 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+42.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 230 + 71	531
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	488.7
Shot-making	+42.3
A game	+6.05

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Botteghe Firenze
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 292	21	0.81	17.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 292	2	0.81	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 292	3	0.81	2.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 424	11	0.80	8.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 224 league shots	12	0.80	9.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 312	3	0.78	2.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 312	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 454 league shots	29	0.78	22.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 630	5	0.82	4.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 630	11	0.82	9.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 630	1	0.82	0.8
Rim · Drive64 % of 1 081 league shots	73	1.27	92.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 672	5	1.26	6.3
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 380 league shots	17	1.30	22.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 672	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Post-up66 % of 259 league shots	15	1.33	19.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 340	1	1.30	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 340	3	1.30	3.9
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 246 league shots	16	1.25	20.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 404	2	1.32	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 404	9	1.32	11.9
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 208	7	1.32	9.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 208	5	1.32	6.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 208	2	1.32	2.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 224	8	1.00	8.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 224	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 224	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 2 938	2	1.11	2.2
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 2 938	1	1.11	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 580 league shots	103	1.09	112.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 259 league shots	18	1.11	20.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break40 % of 326 league shots	21	1.19	24.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 2 209	1	1.11	1.1
Three · Pull-up39 % of 357 league shots	21	1.18	24.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 485	1	1.18	1.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 485	5	1.18	5.9
Total adds up	443	1.10	488.7

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Where Botteghe Firenze shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

443 of 443 shots shown

51.9%

230 of 443 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 110 / 158 70% · avg 2.0 ft 62 of the 110 makes assisted league 64% 220pts

MID 49 / 100 49% · avg 14.9 ft 26 of the 49 makes assisted league 41% 98pts

THREE 71 / 185 38% · avg 25.3 ft 64 of the 71 makes assisted league 37% 213pts

230 of 443 from the floor, 531 points, + 101 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

152 of 230 makes were assisted (66%): 62 + 26 + 64.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Botteghe Firenze

36% 23% 42%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Botteghe Firenze

31% 42% 20%

League

31% 42% 19%

How we counted it

Botteghe Firenze: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	136 drives + 33 post-ups + 187 catch and shoot + 87 pull-ups = 443

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Tancredi Doğru SG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

60/99 shots 109.7 expected 139 scored ▲ +29.3

Gabriele Demirci PG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

52/98 shots 110.0 expected 121 scored ▲ +11.0

Blake Acevedo SF 19 y

Strong61–80

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/52 shots 55.1 expected 65 scored ▲ +9.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.