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Brodetti Fano

Founded 1965 in Fano

Palestra del Lido, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Brodetti Fano's wins match its points

−0.9 wins

Brodetti Fano's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

4.9Points say

68.2Scored a game

70.7Allowed a game

−2.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	887
Points allowed	919
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0361
To the power of 14	1.6424
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.6424)	37.84%
× 13 games played	4.92
Wins the points say	4.9 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	−0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Brodetti Fano won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

95.3

Brodetti Fano score 95.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 100.6. That is 13th of 14.

BRF 95.3

League 100.6

How we counted it

100 × 887 points ÷ 931 possessions	95.3
League mean, 14 clubs	100.6
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

45.8 %

Brodetti Fano shoot 45.8 % effective. The league shoots 48.3 %. That is 12th of 14.

BRF 45.8 %

League 48.3 %

How we counted it

Brodetti Fano: (344 + ½ × 109) ÷ 870	45.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

15.6

Brodetti Fano attempt 15.6 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 19.0, so 12th of 14.

BRF 15.6 %

League 19.0 %

How we counted it

Brodetti Fano: 136 tries ÷ 870 shots	15.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Ivan Alonso

#99 · PG

29/58shots

66points

+9.5vs expected

How we counted it

29 made of 58, 8 of them threes	29/58
Points: 2 × 29 + 8	66
His shots are worth (expected)	56.5
Above expected	66 − 56.5 = +9.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 14

BRF 45.8 %

League 48.3 %

How we counted it

Brodetti Fano: (344 + ½ × 109) ÷ 870	45.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 14

BRF 15.9 %

League 15.5 %

How we counted it

Brodetti Fano: 148 ÷ 931 possessions	15.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 14

BRF 25.4 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Brodetti Fano: 129 ÷ (129 + 379)	25.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 14

BRF 15.6 %

League 19.0 %

How we counted it

Brodetti Fano: 136 tries ÷ 870 shots	15.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−20.4

Over 6 games Brodetti Fano's shots were worth 385.4 points and they scored 365 from the floor: 3.4 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−20.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 157 + 51	365
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	385.4
Shot-making	−20.4
A game	−3.41

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Brodetti Fano
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 240 league shots	22	0.73	16.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 329	6	0.72	4.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 329	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 326	8	0.77	6.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 326	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 326	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 249 league shots	17	0.77	13.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	3	0.76	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	4	0.76	3.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	2	0.76	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 417 league shots	31	0.82	25.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 520	6	0.80	4.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 520	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 520	2	0.80	1.6
Rim · Drive56 % of 919 league shots	63	1.12	70.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 350	12	1.14	13.7
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 249 league shots	15	1.22	18.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 350	4	1.14	4.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	10	1.14	11.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	3	1.14	3.4
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	4	1.14	4.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	2	1.14	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	4	0.93	3.7
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	3	0.93	2.8
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 431 league shots	107	0.97	103.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 253 league shots	15	0.74	11.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 879	19	0.94	17.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 879	3	0.94	2.8
Three · Pull-up30 % of 274 league shots	22	0.89	19.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 341	5	0.89	4.5
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 341	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 341	1	0.89	0.9
Total adds up	407	0.95	385.4

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Where Brodetti Fano shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

407 of 407 shots shown

38.6%

157 of 407 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 74 / 117 63% · avg 2.0 ft 38 of the 74 makes assisted league 60% 148pts

MID 32 / 110 29% · avg 14.4 ft 14 of the 32 makes assisted league 38% 64pts

THREE 51 / 180 28% · avg 25.3 ft 48 of the 51 makes assisted league 31% 153pts

157 of 407 from the floor, 365 points, + 40 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

100 of 157 makes were assisted (64%): 38 + 14 + 48.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Brodetti Fano

29% 27% 44%

League

33% 24% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Brodetti Fano

32% 43% 18%

League

33% 44% 17%

How we counted it

Brodetti Fano: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	131 drives + 28 post-ups + 175 catch and shoot + 73 pull-ups = 407

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ivan Alonso PG 34 y

Solid41–60

Age: 34
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/58 shots 56.5 expected 66 scored ▲ +9.5

Lincoln Frank SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/86 shots 81.3 expected 87 scored ▲ +5.7

Helmut Boivin PG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 1

31/82 shots 75.3 expected 72 scored ▼ −3.3

Valentino Arroyo SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

10/50 shots 45.2 expected 24 scored ▼ −21.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.