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Cafezais Londrina

Founded 1956 in Londrina

Ginásio do Lago Igapó, holding 6 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Cafezais Londrina's wins run ahead of its points

+1.3 wins

Cafezais Londrina's points say about 14 wins in 18 league games. It has 15. The table has been a little kind.

15Wins so far

13.7Points say

89.2Scored a game

82.1Allowed a game

+7.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 606
Points allowed	1 478
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9203
To the power of 14	0.3126
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3126)	76.18%
× 18 games played	13.71
Wins the points say	13.7 adds up

Wins so far	15
Difference	+1.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Cafezais Londrina won 1 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

119.7

Cafezais Londrina score 119.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 107.9. That is 1st of 10.

CLO 119.7

League 107.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 606 points ÷ 1 342 possessions	119.7
League mean, 10 clubs	107.9
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

Hot shooting

57.4 %

Cafezais Londrina shoot 57.4 % effective. The league shoots 53.0 %. That is 1st of 10.

CLO 57.4 %

League 53.0 %

How we counted it

Cafezais Londrina: (570 + ½ × 211) ÷ 1 177	57.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	53.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.2 %

Cafezais Londrina give it away on 16.2 % of trips against the league's 17.9 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 10.

CLO 16.2 %

League 17.9 %

How we counted it

Cafezais Londrina: 218 ÷ 1 342 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	17.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Best shot-maker

Agenor Caballero

#35 · PF

60/101shots

152points

+42.3vs expected

How we counted it

60 made of 101, 32 of them threes	60/101
Points: 2 × 60 + 32	152
His shots are worth (expected)	109.7
Above expected	152 − 109.7 = +42.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 10

CLO 57.4 %

League 53.0 %

How we counted it

Cafezais Londrina: (570 + ½ × 211) ÷ 1 177	57.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	53.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 10

CLO 16.2 %

League 17.9 %

How we counted it

Cafezais Londrina: 218 ÷ 1 342 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	17.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 10

CLO 27.0 %

League 25.3 %

How we counted it

Cafezais Londrina: 160 ÷ (160 + 432)	27.0 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 10

CLO 27.1 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Cafezais Londrina: 319 tries ÷ 1 177 shots	27.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+0.9

Over 8 games Cafezais Londrina's shots were worth 585.1 points and they scored 586 from the floor: 0.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+0.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 249 + 88	586
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	585.1
Shot-making	+0.9
A game	+0.11

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Cafezais Londrina
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 253	11	0.86	9.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 253	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 253	8	0.86	6.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 253	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 141	16	0.79	12.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 141	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 262	12	0.78	9.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 262	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 354 league shots	25	0.79	19.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 477	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 477	1	0.80	0.8
Rim · Drive59 % of 769 league shots	84	1.18	99.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 229	17	1.23	20.9
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 296 league shots	34	1.36	46.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 229	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 210	18	1.35	24.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 210	3	1.35	4.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 210	2	1.35	2.7
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 254	18	1.22	22.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 254	6	1.22	7.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 254	8	1.22	9.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 254	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 788	3	1.25	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 788	1	1.25	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 149	25	1.04	26.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 149	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 149	3	1.04	3.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 149	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 149	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 212 league shots	137	1.05	144.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 656	28	1.06	29.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break42 % of 233 league shots	36	1.26	45.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 656	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Pull-up37 % of 252 league shots	13	1.12	14.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 338	2	1.02	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 338	1	1.02	1.0
Total adds up	530	1.10	585.1

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Where Cafezais Londrina shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

530 of 530 shots shown

47.0%

249 of 530 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 134 / 200 67% · avg 2.0 ft 70 of the 134 makes assisted league 63% 268pts

MID 27 / 80 34% · avg 14.7 ft 14 of the 27 makes assisted league 40% 54pts

THREE 88 / 250 35% · avg 25.2 ft 83 of the 88 makes assisted league 35% 264pts

249 of 530 from the floor, 586 points, + 129 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

167 of 249 makes were assisted (67%): 70 + 14 + 83.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Cafezais Londrina

38% 15% 47%

League

35% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Cafezais Londrina

36% 47% 9%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Cafezais Londrina: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	191 drives + 41 post-ups + 251 catch and shoot + 47 pull-ups = 530

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Agenor Caballero PF 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

60/101 shots 109.7 expected 152 scored ▲ +42.3

Ramon Gouvêa PG 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

21/50 shots 53.9 expected 50 scored ▼ −3.9

Domenico Guillén SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/76 shots 86.8 expected 81 scored ▼ −5.8

Francisco Kalu SG 33 y

Solid41–60

Age: 33
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

39/85 shots 95.4 expected 89 scored ▼ −6.4

Enzo Martins SF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

28/67 shots 73.8 expected 60 scored ▼ −13.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.