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Caldenes Santa Rosa

Founded 1945 in Santa Rosa

Gimnasio de la Laguna Don Tomás, holding 6 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Caldenes Santa Rosa's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Caldenes Santa Rosa's points say about 4 wins in 15 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

4.5Points say

79.6Scored a game

84.6Allowed a game

−5.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 194
Points allowed	1 269
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0628
To the power of 14	2.3464
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.3464)	29.88%
× 15 games played	4.48
Wins the points say	4.5 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Caldenes Santa Rosa won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

113.6

Caldenes Santa Rosa let in 113.6 per 100 trips against the league's 110.0. Lower is better: 14th of 16.

CSR 113.6

League 110.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 269 allowed ÷ 1 117 possessions	113.6
League mean, 16 clubs	110.0
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.9 %

Caldenes Santa Rosa win back 24.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 12th of 16.

CSR 24.9 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Caldenes Santa Rosa: 126 ÷ (126 + 381)	24.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Weakness

Few trips to the line

26.7

Caldenes Santa Rosa attempt 26.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 27.7, so 12th of 16.

CSR 26.7 %

League 27.7 %

How we counted it

Caldenes Santa Rosa: 256 tries ÷ 960 shots	26.7 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Best shot-maker

Patricio Lemos

#32 · SG

62/117shots

143points

+15.4vs expected

How we counted it

62 made of 117, 19 of them threes	62/117
Points: 2 × 62 + 19	143
His shots are worth (expected)	127.6
Above expected	143 − 127.6 = +15.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 16

CSR 53.3 %

League 53.6 %

How we counted it

Caldenes Santa Rosa: (448 + ½ × 127) ÷ 960	53.3 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.6 %
Rank, 16 clubs	8th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 16

CSR 17.0 %

League 17.8 %

How we counted it

Caldenes Santa Rosa: 188 ÷ 1 109 possessions	17.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	6th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 12th of 16

CSR 24.9 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Caldenes Santa Rosa: 126 ÷ (126 + 381)	24.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 16

CSR 26.7 %

League 27.7 %

How we counted it

Caldenes Santa Rosa: 256 tries ÷ 960 shots	26.7 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−35.0

Over 7 games Caldenes Santa Rosa's shots were worth 476.0 points and they scored 441 from the floor: 5.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−35.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 194 + 53	441
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	476.0
Shot-making	−35.0
A game	−5.00

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Caldenes Santa Rosa
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 235 league shots	14	0.83	11.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	7	0.84	5.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 352	8	0.78	6.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 352	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot46 % of 204 league shots	8	0.92	7.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	2	0.82	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	5	0.82	4.1
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 418 league shots	31	0.71	22.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	5	0.72	3.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	3	0.72	2.2
Rim · Drive63 % of 980 league shots	75	1.26	94.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 532	9	1.25	11.3
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 361 league shots	36	1.26	45.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 532	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	19	1.32	25.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	2	1.32	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot65 % of 220 league shots	17	1.30	22.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	5	1.28	6.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	5	1.28	6.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	7	1.26	8.8
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	2	1.26	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	7	1.04	7.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 520 league shots	98	1.07	104.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 221 league shots	15	0.84	12.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 254 league shots	12	1.06	12.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 025	2	1.05	2.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 294 league shots	22	1.03	22.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	8	0.99	7.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	1	0.99	1.0
Total adds up	441	1.08	476.0

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Where Caldenes Santa Rosa shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

441 of 441 shots shown

44.0%

194 of 441 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 109 / 181 60% · avg 2.0 ft 58 of the 109 makes assisted league 63% 218pts

MID 32 / 90 36% · avg 14.7 ft 17 of the 32 makes assisted league 40% 64pts

THREE 53 / 170 31% · avg 25.5 ft 46 of the 53 makes assisted league 35% 159pts

194 of 441 from the floor, 441 points, + 106 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

121 of 194 makes were assisted (62%): 58 + 17 + 46.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Caldenes Santa Rosa

41% 20% 39%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Caldenes Santa Rosa

34% 39% 20%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Caldenes Santa Rosa: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	152 drives + 32 post-ups + 170 catch and shoot + 87 pull-ups = 441

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Patricio Lemos SG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

62/117 shots 127.6 expected 143 scored ▲ +15.4

Pablo Feijóo PG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/64 shots 72.4 expected 78 scored ▲ +5.6

Damian Bradshaw SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

21/54 shots 54.5 expected 48 scored ▼ −6.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.