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Caleros Olavarría

Founded 1926 in Olavarría

Gimnasio de las Canteras, holding 7 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Caleros Olavarría's wins run ahead of its points

+2.8 wins

Caleros Olavarría's points say about 11 wins in 15 league games. It has 14. The table has been a little kind.

14Wins so far

11.2Points say

88.4Scored a game

81.9Allowed a game

+6.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 326
Points allowed	1 228
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9261
To the power of 14	0.3413
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3413)	74.55%
× 15 games played	11.18
Wins the points say	11.2 adds up

Wins so far	14
Difference	+2.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Caleros Olavarría won 3 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

57.4 %

Caleros Olavarría shoot 57.4 % effective. The league shoots 53.6 %. That is 1st of 16.

COL 57.4 %

League 53.6 %

How we counted it

Caleros Olavarría: (483 + ½ × 137) ÷ 960	57.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.6 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.2 %

Caleros Olavarría give it away on 16.2 % of trips against the league's 17.8 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 16.

COL 16.2 %

League 17.8 %

How we counted it

Caleros Olavarría: 184 ÷ 1 134 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Strength

A strong attack

116.9

Caleros Olavarría score 116.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.0. That is 2nd of 16.

COL 116.9

League 110.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 326 points ÷ 1 134 possessions	116.9
League mean, 16 clubs	110.0
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Best shot-maker

Felipe Guichard

#61 · SG

38/62shots

88points

+21.8vs expected

How we counted it

38 made of 62, 12 of them threes	38/62
Points: 2 × 38 + 12	88
His shots are worth (expected)	66.2
Above expected	88 − 66.2 = +21.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 16

COL 57.4 %

League 53.6 %

How we counted it

Caleros Olavarría: (483 + ½ × 137) ÷ 960	57.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.6 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 16

COL 16.2 %

League 17.8 %

How we counted it

Caleros Olavarría: 184 ÷ 1 134 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 11th of 16

COL 24.9 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Caleros Olavarría: 113 ÷ (113 + 341)	24.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	11th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 16

COL 29.2 %

League 27.7 %

How we counted it

Caleros Olavarría: 280 tries ÷ 960 shots	29.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+34.6

Over 6 games Caleros Olavarría's shots were worth 407.4 points and they scored 442 from the floor: 5.8 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+34.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 195 + 52	442
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	407.4
Shot-making	+34.6
A game	+5.77

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Caleros Olavarría
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 235 league shots	14	0.83	11.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 352	9	0.78	7.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot46 % of 204 league shots	21	0.92	19.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	2	0.82	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 418 league shots	33	0.71	23.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	6	0.72	4.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	10	0.72	7.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	3	0.72	2.2
Rim · Drive63 % of 980 league shots	56	1.26	70.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 532	10	1.25	12.5
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 361 league shots	26	1.26	32.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 532	3	1.25	3.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	6	1.32	7.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	1	1.32	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	2	1.32	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot65 % of 220 league shots	12	1.30	15.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	10	1.28	12.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	10	1.26	12.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	3	1.26	3.8
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	6	1.04	6.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 520 league shots	90	1.07	96.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 221 league shots	7	0.84	5.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 254 league shots	9	1.06	9.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 025	3	1.05	3.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 294 league shots	13	1.03	13.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	7	0.99	7.0
Total adds up	385	1.06	407.4

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Where Caleros Olavarría shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

444 of 444 shots shown

49.8%

221 of 444 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 110 / 159 69% · avg 2.0 ft 57 of the 110 makes assisted league 63% 220pts

MID 53 / 120 44% · avg 14.9 ft 29 of the 53 makes assisted league 40% 106pts

THREE 58 / 165 35% · avg 25.1 ft 54 of the 58 makes assisted league 35% 174pts

221 of 444 from the floor, 500 points, + 106 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

140 of 221 makes were assisted (63%): 57 + 29 + 54.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Caleros Olavarría

37% 27% 36%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Caleros Olavarría

32% 41% 23%

League

33% 42% 18%

Caleros Olavarría lean on pull-ups: 22.9 % of its shots against the league's 18.1 %.

How we counted it

Caleros Olavarría: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	122 drives + 18 post-ups + 157 catch and shoot + 88 pull-ups = 385

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Felipe Guichard SG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

38/62 shots 66.2 expected 88 scored ▲ +21.8

Fidel Lorenz PG 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

33/55 shots 60.7 expected 73 scored ▲ +12.3

Conner Carey PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/63 shots 67.1 expected 71 scored ▲ +3.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.