Manage a club, start free

Calzolai Vigevano

Founded 1954 in Vigevano

Palazzetto della Lomellina, holding 1 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Where the points say

Calzolai Vigevano's wins match its points

−0.2 wins

Calzolai Vigevano's points say about 9 wins in 19 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

9.2Points say

77.9Scored a game

78.3Allowed a game

−0.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 481
Points allowed	1 487
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0041
To the power of 14	1.0582
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0582)	48.59%
× 19 games played	9.23
Wins the points say	9.2 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Calzolai Vigevano won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.2 %

Calzolai Vigevano give it away on 16.2 % of trips against the league's 17.1 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 20.

CAV 16.2 %

League 17.1 %

How we counted it

Calzolai Vigevano: 225 ÷ 1 389 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Strength

A strong attack

106.6

Calzolai Vigevano score 106.6 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.5. That is 6th of 20.

CAV 106.6

League 104.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 481 points ÷ 1 389 possessions	106.6
League mean, 20 clubs	104.5
Rank, 20 clubs	6th of 20

Weakness

A leaky defence

106.9

Calzolai Vigevano let in 106.9 per 100 trips against the league's 104.5. Lower is better: 15th of 20.

CAV 106.9

League 104.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 487 allowed ÷ 1 391 possessions	106.9
League mean, 20 clubs	104.5
Rank, 20 clubs	15th of 20

Best shot-maker

Olindo Angulo

#85 · SF

53/109shots

139points

+32.2vs expected

How we counted it

53 made of 109, 33 of them threes	53/109
Points: 2 × 53 + 33	139
His shots are worth (expected)	106.8
Above expected	139 − 106.8 = +32.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 20

CAV 50.8 %

League 50.4 %

How we counted it

Calzolai Vigevano: (543 + ½ × 184) ÷ 1 249	50.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	9th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 20

CAV 16.2 %

League 17.1 %

How we counted it

Calzolai Vigevano: 225 ÷ 1 389 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 15th of 20

CAV 25.3 %

League 26.5 %

How we counted it

Calzolai Vigevano: 170 ÷ (170 + 503)	25.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	15th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 15th of 20

CAV 21.0 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Calzolai Vigevano: 262 tries ÷ 1 249 shots	21.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	15th of 20

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+8.1

Over 8 games Calzolai Vigevano's shots were worth 517.9 points and they scored 526 from the floor: 1.0 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+8.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 222 + 82	526
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	517.9
Shot-making	+8.1
A game	+1.01

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Calzolai Vigevano
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 396 league shots	22	0.77	17.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	6	0.77	4.6
Mid-range · Post-up43 % of 242 league shots	12	0.86	10.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 307	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 307	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot37 % of 384 league shots	15	0.74	11.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	7	0.79	5.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 708 league shots	46	0.73	33.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	16	0.73	11.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	6	0.73	4.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 663 league shots	69	1.18	81.6
Rim · Drive · second chance55 % of 261 league shots	5	1.10	5.5
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 547 league shots	24	1.31	31.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 2 557	6	1.21	7.2
Rim · Post-up61 % of 315 league shots	13	1.21	15.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 412	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 412	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 233 league shots	8	1.29	10.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	6	1.28	7.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	5	1.22	6.1
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	13	1.05	13.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	2	1.05	2.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	4	1.05	4.2
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 2 721 league shots	138	1.00	138.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 456 league shots	16	0.76	12.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 379 league shots	17	1.04	17.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 3 611	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Pull-up36 % of 532 league shots	33	1.07	35.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	6	0.99	5.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	5	0.99	4.9
Total adds up	520	1.00	517.9

⁠

Where Calzolai Vigevano shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

571 of 571 shots shown

43.3%

247 of 571 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 99 / 161 62% · avg 2.1 ft 51 of the 99 makes assisted league 60% 198pts

MID 55 / 152 36% · avg 14.7 ft 27 of the 55 makes assisted league 38% 110pts

THREE 93 / 258 36% · avg 25.3 ft 80 of the 93 makes assisted league 33% 279pts

247 of 571 from the floor, 587 points, + 107 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

158 of 247 makes were assisted (64%): 51 + 27 + 80.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Calzolai Vigevano

28% 27% 45%

League

34% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Calzolai Vigevano

30% 41% 23%

League

32% 43% 18%

Calzolai Vigevano lean on pull-ups: 22.7 % of its shots against the league's 17.8 %.

How we counted it

Calzolai Vigevano: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	155 drives + 35 post-ups + 212 catch and shoot + 118 pull-ups = 520

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Olindo Angulo SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

53/109 shots 106.8 expected 139 scored ▲ +32.2

Fernando French SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/84 shots 86.7 expected 80 scored ▼ −6.7

Flavio Durak SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/116 shots 112.9 expected 80 scored ▼ −32.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.