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Campanone Rovereto

Founded 1969 in Rovereto

Palestra del Leno, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Campanone Rovereto's wins match its points

−0.2 wins

Campanone Rovereto's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

5.2Points say

72.1Scored a game

74.2Allowed a game

−2.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	937
Points allowed	965
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0299
To the power of 14	1.5102
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.5102)	39.84%
× 13 games played	5.18
Wins the points say	5.2 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	−0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Campanone Rovereto won 0 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

102.7

Campanone Rovereto let in 102.7 per 100 trips against the league's 100.1. Lower is better: 13th of 14.

CAR 102.7

League 100.1

How we counted it

100 × 965 allowed ÷ 940 possessions	102.7
League mean, 14 clubs	100.1
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

45.9 %

Campanone Rovereto shoot 45.9 % effective. The league shoots 47.3 %. That is 11th of 14.

CAR 45.9 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Campanone Rovereto: (344 + ½ × 123) ÷ 883	45.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

13.6 %

Campanone Rovereto give it away on 13.6 % of trips against the league's 14.9 %. Fewer is better: 5th of 14.

CAR 13.6 %

League 14.9 %

How we counted it

Campanone Rovereto: 128 ÷ 938 possessions	13.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	14.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Best shot-maker

Suat Gambo

#29 · PF

33/62shots

75points

+17.1vs expected

How we counted it

33 made of 62, 9 of them threes	33/62
Points: 2 × 33 + 9	75
His shots are worth (expected)	57.9
Above expected	75 − 57.9 = +17.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 14

CAR 45.9 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Campanone Rovereto: (344 + ½ × 123) ÷ 883	45.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 5th of 14

CAR 13.6 %

League 14.9 %

How we counted it

Campanone Rovereto: 128 ÷ 938 possessions	13.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	14.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 14

CAR 25.6 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Campanone Rovereto: 132 ÷ (132 + 384)	25.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 14

CAR 19.3 %

League 19.1 %

How we counted it

Campanone Rovereto: 170 tries ÷ 883 shots	19.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−13.5

Over 6 games Campanone Rovereto's shots were worth 378.5 points and they scored 365 from the floor: 2.3 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−13.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 154 + 57	365
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	378.5
Shot-making	−13.5
A game	−2.25

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Campanone Rovereto
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 229 league shots	15	0.72	10.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	7	0.74	5.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	5	0.74	3.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	9	0.70	6.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 250 league shots	22	0.71	15.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 323	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 323	2	0.77	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 401 league shots	27	0.71	19.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 535	4	0.68	2.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 535	2	0.68	1.4
Rim · Drive57 % of 950 league shots	66	1.15	75.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 448	13	1.13	14.7
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 283 league shots	22	1.17	25.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 448	7	1.13	7.9
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	10	1.13	11.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	6	1.13	6.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	6	1.13	6.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	3	1.13	3.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	4	1.13	4.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	4	0.91	3.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 356 league shots	94	0.93	87.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 223 league shots	18	0.74	13.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 794	16	0.92	14.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 794	4	0.92	3.7
Three · Pull-up25 % of 285 league shots	21	0.74	15.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 367	2	0.83	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 367	4	0.83	3.3
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 367	1	0.83	0.8
Total adds up	406	0.93	378.5

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Where Campanone Rovereto shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

406 of 406 shots shown

37.9%

154 of 406 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 70 / 140 50% · avg 2.0 ft 37 of the 70 makes assisted league 58% 140pts

MID 27 / 99 27% · avg 14.2 ft 11 of the 27 makes assisted league 35% 54pts

THREE 57 / 167 34% · avg 25.0 ft 48 of the 57 makes assisted league 30% 171pts

154 of 406 from the floor, 365 points, + 75 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

96 of 154 makes were assisted (62%): 37 + 11 + 48.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Campanone Rovereto

34% 24% 41%

League

34% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Campanone Rovereto

35% 43% 16%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Campanone Rovereto: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	143 drives + 23 post-ups + 175 catch and shoot + 65 pull-ups = 406

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Suat Gambo PF 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/62 shots 57.9 expected 75 scored ▲ +17.1

Theodor Berger Injured PG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/83 shots 76.1 expected 70 scored ▼ −6.1

Otu Sokoto SG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/86 shots 78.7 expected 68 scored ▼ −10.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.