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Cantieristi Monfalcone

Founded 1979 in Monfalcone

Palestra della Rocca, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Cantieristi Monfalcone's wins match its points

+0.3 wins

Cantieristi Monfalcone's points say about 7 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

6.7Points say

73.6Scored a game

73.3Allowed a game

+0.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	957
Points allowed	953
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9958
To the power of 14	0.9430
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.9430)	51.47%
× 13 games played	6.69
Wins the points say	6.7 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Cantieristi Monfalcone won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

12.5 %

Cantieristi Monfalcone give it away on 12.5 % of trips against the league's 14.9 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 14.

CAM 12.5 %

League 14.9 %

How we counted it

Cantieristi Monfalcone: 118 ÷ 946 possessions	12.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	14.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

A strong attack

101.2

Cantieristi Monfalcone score 101.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 100.1. That is 5th of 14.

CAM 101.2

League 100.1

How we counted it

100 × 957 points ÷ 946 possessions	101.2
League mean, 14 clubs	100.1
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Weakness

A leaky defence

101.3

Cantieristi Monfalcone let in 101.3 per 100 trips against the league's 100.1. Lower is better: 10th of 14.

CAM 101.3

League 100.1

How we counted it

100 × 953 allowed ÷ 941 possessions	101.3
League mean, 14 clubs	100.1
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Best shot-maker

Beniamino Gros

#95 · SG

47/110shots

116points

+18.0vs expected

How we counted it

47 made of 110, 22 of them threes	47/110
Points: 2 × 47 + 22	116
His shots are worth (expected)	98.0
Above expected	116 − 98.0 = +18.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 14

CAM 46.4 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Cantieristi Monfalcone: (370 + ½ × 95) ÷ 900	46.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 14

CAM 12.5 %

League 14.9 %

How we counted it

Cantieristi Monfalcone: 118 ÷ 946 possessions	12.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	14.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 14

CAM 26.1 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Cantieristi Monfalcone: 129 ÷ (129 + 365)	26.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 14

CAM 19.0 %

League 19.1 %

How we counted it

Cantieristi Monfalcone: 171 tries ÷ 900 shots	19.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−3.9

Over 6 games Cantieristi Monfalcone's shots were worth 377.9 points and they scored 374 from the floor: 0.6 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−3.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 164 + 46	374
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	377.9
Shot-making	−3.9
A game	−0.65

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Cantieristi Monfalcone
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 229 league shots	30	0.72	21.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	5	0.74	3.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	14	0.70	9.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 250 league shots	10	0.71	7.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 323	6	0.77	4.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 323	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 401 league shots	31	0.71	22.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 535	7	0.68	4.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 535	4	0.68	2.7
Rim · Drive57 % of 950 league shots	67	1.15	76.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 448	16	1.13	18.1
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 283 league shots	25	1.17	29.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 448	4	1.13	4.5
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	8	1.13	9.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	6	1.13	6.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	5	1.13	5.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	8	0.91	7.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	2	0.91	1.8
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 356 league shots	87	0.93	81.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 223 league shots	15	0.74	11.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 794	8	0.92	7.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 794	2	0.92	1.9
Three · Pull-up25 % of 285 league shots	24	0.74	17.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 367	3	0.83	2.5
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 367	4	0.83	3.3
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 367	2	0.83	1.7
Total adds up	410	0.92	377.9

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Where Cantieristi Monfalcone shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

410 of 410 shots shown

40.0%

164 of 410 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 72 / 137 53% · avg 1.9 ft 26 of the 72 makes assisted league 58% 144pts

MID 46 / 116 40% · avg 14.2 ft 20 of the 46 makes assisted league 35% 92pts

THREE 46 / 157 29% · avg 25.2 ft 35 of the 46 makes assisted league 30% 138pts

164 of 410 from the floor, 374 points, + 61 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

81 of 164 makes were assisted (49%): 26 + 20 + 35.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Cantieristi Monfalcone

33% 28% 38%

League

34% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Cantieristi Monfalcone

40% 34% 20%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Cantieristi Monfalcone: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	163 drives + 26 post-ups + 138 catch and shoot + 83 pull-ups = 410

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Beniamino Gros SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 2

47/110 shots 98.0 expected 116 scored ▲ +18.0

Piergiorgio Perović PG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/69 shots 62.1 expected 69 scored ▲ +6.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.