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Carreros Chacabuco

Founded 1927 in Chacabuco

Gimnasio del Ombú, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Carreros Chacabuco's wins match its points

+0.9 wins

Carreros Chacabuco's points say about 18 wins in 22 league games. It has 19. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

19Wins so far

18.1Points say

80.6Scored a game

72.3Allowed a game

+8.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 774
Points allowed	1 591
Allowed ÷ scored	0.8968
To the power of 14	0.2178
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.2178)	82.12%
× 22 games played	18.07
Wins the points say	18.1 adds up

Wins so far	19
Difference	+0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Carreros Chacabuco won 4 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

98.5

Carreros Chacabuco let in 98.5 per 100 trips against the league's 106.5. Lower is better: 1st of 12.

CCH 98.5

League 106.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 591 allowed ÷ 1 615 possessions	98.5
League mean, 12 clubs	106.5
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

27.6

Carreros Chacabuco attempt 27.6 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.0, so 1st of 12.

CCH 27.6 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Carreros Chacabuco: 393 tries ÷ 1 426 shots	27.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

A strong attack

109.9

Carreros Chacabuco score 109.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 106.5. That is 2nd of 12.

CCH 109.9

League 106.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 774 points ÷ 1 614 possessions	109.9
League mean, 12 clubs	106.5
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Best shot-maker

Rolando Nobre

#3 · PF

34/58shots

76points

+14.9vs expected

How we counted it

34 made of 58, 8 of them threes	34/58
Points: 2 × 34 + 8	76
His shots are worth (expected)	61.1
Above expected	76 − 61.1 = +14.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 12

CCH 52.2 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Carreros Chacabuco: (644 + ½ × 201) ÷ 1 426	52.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 12

CCH 17.0 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Carreros Chacabuco: 274 ÷ 1 614 possessions	17.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 12

CCH 27.6 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Carreros Chacabuco: 210 ÷ (210 + 550)	27.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 12

CCH 27.6 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Carreros Chacabuco: 393 tries ÷ 1 426 shots	27.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−10.8

Over 9 games Carreros Chacabuco's shots were worth 574.8 points and they scored 564 from the floor: 1.2 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−10.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 247 + 70	564
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	574.8
Shot-making	−10.8
A game	−1.20

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Carreros Chacabuco
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 275 league shots	18	0.79	14.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	4	0.83	3.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	26	0.74	19.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 245 league shots	17	0.72	12.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 343	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 343	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 343	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 478 league shots	30	0.79	23.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 644	4	0.79	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 644	6	0.79	4.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 158 league shots	69	1.22	83.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 732	10	1.21	12.1
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 357 league shots	43	1.21	52.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 732	7	1.21	8.5
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	25	1.21	30.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	4	1.21	4.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	23	1.31	30.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	5	1.31	6.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	10	1.31	13.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	3	1.31	3.9
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	5	1.23	6.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	2	1.23	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	6	1.02	6.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	7	1.02	7.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 797 league shots	144	1.04	149.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance30 % of 272 league shots	22	0.90	19.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break34 % of 294 league shots	11	1.01	11.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 404	3	1.03	3.1
Three · Pull-up28 % of 309 league shots	21	0.85	17.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 402	3	0.95	2.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 402	8	0.95	7.6
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 402	1	0.95	1.0
Total adds up	554	1.04	574.8

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Where Carreros Chacabuco shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

622 of 622 shots shown

44.2%

275 of 622 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 151 / 230 66% · avg 2.0 ft 81 of the 151 makes assisted league 60% 302pts

MID 49 / 139 35% · avg 13.8 ft 20 of the 49 makes assisted league 39% 98pts

THREE 75 / 253 30% · avg 25.3 ft 66 of the 75 makes assisted league 34% 225pts

275 of 622 from the floor, 625 points, + 147 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

167 of 275 makes were assisted (61%): 81 + 20 + 66.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Carreros Chacabuco

37% 22% 41%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Carreros Chacabuco

30% 11% 44% 14%

League

33% 44% 17%

Carreros Chacabuco lean on post-ups: 10.8 % of its shots against the league's 6.7 %.

How we counted it

Carreros Chacabuco: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	168 drives + 60 post-ups + 246 catch and shoot + 80 pull-ups = 554

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Rolando Nobre Injured PF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

34/58 shots 61.1 expected 76 scored ▲ +14.9

Osvaldo Köppen SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

63/142 shots 146.1 expected 147 scored ▲ +0.9

Guy Bryant SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

45/98 shots 103.1 expected 102 scored ▼ −1.1

Darnell Cobb Injured SF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

39/103 shots 107.0 expected 93 scored ▼ −14.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.