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Cartapesta Lecce

Founded 1977 in Lecce

Palazzetto di Porta Rudiae, holding 5 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Cartapesta Lecce's wins run ahead of its points

+1.0 wins

Cartapesta Lecce's points say about 6 wins in 19 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little kind.

7Wins so far

6.0Points say

75.7Scored a game

79.9Allowed a game

−4.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 438
Points allowed	1 519
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0563
To the power of 14	2.1537
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.1537)	31.71%
× 19 games played	6.02
Wins the points say	6.0 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+1.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Cartapesta Lecce won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

101.8

Cartapesta Lecce score 101.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.2. That is 20th of 20.

CAL 101.8

League 109.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 438 points ÷ 1 412 possessions	101.8
League mean, 20 clubs	109.2
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Weakness

Cold shooting

48.7 %

Cartapesta Lecce shoot 48.7 % effective. The league shoots 52.7 %. That is 20th of 20.

CAL 48.7 %

League 52.7 %

How we counted it

Cartapesta Lecce: (529 + ½ × 185) ÷ 1 275	48.7 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Weakness

Few trips to the line

21.0

Cartapesta Lecce attempt 21.0 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.3, so 20th of 20.

CAL 21.0 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Cartapesta Lecce: 268 tries ÷ 1 275 shots	21.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Best shot-maker

Ivano Fonseca

#58 · SG

49/102shots

118points

+15.3vs expected

How we counted it

49 made of 102, 20 of them threes	49/102
Points: 2 × 49 + 20	118
His shots are worth (expected)	102.7
Above expected	118 − 102.7 = +15.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 20th of 20

CAL 48.7 %

League 52.7 %

How we counted it

Cartapesta Lecce: (529 + ½ × 185) ÷ 1 275	48.7 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 20

CAL 17.8 %

League 17.6 %

How we counted it

Cartapesta Lecce: 251 ÷ 1 412 possessions	17.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.6 %
Rank, 20 clubs	11th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 20

CAL 28.1 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Cartapesta Lecce: 201 ÷ (201 + 515)	28.1 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	7th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 20th of 20

CAL 21.0 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Cartapesta Lecce: 268 tries ÷ 1 275 shots	21.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−23.8

Over 9 games Cartapesta Lecce's shots were worth 605.8 points and they scored 582 from the floor: 2.6 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−23.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 249 + 84	582
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	605.8
Shot-making	−23.8
A game	−2.64

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Cartapesta Lecce
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 374 league shots	20	0.77	15.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 593	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 593	10	0.77	7.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 593	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Post-up33 % of 261 league shots	17	0.66	11.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 321	2	0.62	1.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 357 league shots	21	0.77	16.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 508	5	0.74	3.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 508	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 845 league shots	41	0.79	32.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 1 122	10	0.79	7.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 1 122	10	0.79	7.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 1 122	1	0.79	0.8
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 771 league shots	83	1.25	104.1
Rim · Drive · second chance55 % of 296 league shots	15	1.11	16.6
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 586 league shots	23	1.35	31.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 2 738	6	1.27	7.6
Rim · Post-up63 % of 394 league shots	11	1.26	13.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 502	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 502	4	1.26	5.0
Rim · Catch and shoot59 % of 352 league shots	20	1.18	23.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 549	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 549	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 549	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 286	9	1.24	11.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 286	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 286	5	1.24	6.2
Three · Drive38 % of 208 league shots	9	1.14	10.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 311	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 311	5	1.08	5.4
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 311	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 4 882	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 2 756 league shots	124	1.04	129.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 433 league shots	24	0.92	22.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 473 league shots	20	1.07	21.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 3 713	4	1.03	4.1
Three · Pull-up35 % of 613 league shots	47	1.05	49.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 831	10	1.04	10.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 831	3	1.04	3.1
Total adds up	584	1.04	605.8

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Where Cartapesta Lecce shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

584 of 584 shots shown

42.6%

249 of 584 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 107 / 189 57% · avg 2.0 ft 60 of the 107 makes assisted league 63% 214pts

MID 58 / 145 40% · avg 14.3 ft 28 of the 58 makes assisted league 39% 116pts

THREE 84 / 250 34% · avg 25.3 ft 74 of the 84 makes assisted league 34% 252pts

249 of 584 from the floor, 582 points, + 119 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

162 of 249 makes were assisted (65%): 60 + 28 + 74.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Cartapesta Lecce

32% 25% 43%

League

35% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Cartapesta Lecce

31% 39% 24%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Cartapesta Lecce: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	180 drives + 38 post-ups + 227 catch and shoot + 139 pull-ups = 584

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ivano Fonseca SG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

49/102 shots 102.7 expected 118 scored ▲ +15.3

Ruggero Casey SF 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

50/96 shots 104.6 expected 115 scored ▲ +10.4

Ascanio Chartier SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/60 shots 61.4 expected 57 scored ▼ −4.4

Ermanno Canales PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

49/123 shots 123.7 expected 114 scored ▼ −9.7

Sertaç Günay SG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

17/51 shots 52.5 expected 37 scored ▼ −15.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.