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Castores Ushuaia

Founded 1972 in Ushuaia

Gimnasio del Canal Beagle, holding 4 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Castores Ushuaia's wins trail its points

−1.1 wins

Castores Ushuaia's points say about 7 wins in 15 league games. It has 6. The table has been a little unkind.

6Wins so far

7.1Points say

81.9Scored a game

82.6Allowed a game

−0.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 229
Points allowed	1 239
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0081
To the power of 14	1.1201
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1201)	47.17%
× 15 games played	7.08
Wins the points say	7.1 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	−1.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Castores Ushuaia won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Few trips to the line

23.2

Castores Ushuaia attempt 23.2 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 27.7, so 16th of 16.

CUS 23.2 %

League 27.7 %

How we counted it

Castores Ushuaia: 222 tries ÷ 958 shots	23.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

Strength

Hot shooting

55.0 %

Castores Ushuaia shoot 55.0 % effective. The league shoots 53.6 %. That is 3rd of 16.

CUS 55.0 %

League 53.6 %

How we counted it

Castores Ushuaia: (446 + ½ × 162) ÷ 958	55.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.6 %
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

Strength

A strong attack

111.3

Castores Ushuaia score 111.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.0. That is 6th of 16.

CUS 111.3

League 110.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 229 points ÷ 1 104 possessions	111.3
League mean, 16 clubs	110.0
Rank, 16 clubs	6th of 16

Best shot-maker

Néstor Serrano

#47 · SG

64/124shots

157points

+24.1vs expected

How we counted it

64 made of 124, 29 of them threes	64/124
Points: 2 × 64 + 29	157
His shots are worth (expected)	132.9
Above expected	157 − 132.9 = +24.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 16

CUS 55.0 %

League 53.6 %

How we counted it

Castores Ushuaia: (446 + ½ × 162) ÷ 958	55.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.6 %
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 16

CUS 17.9 %

League 17.8 %

How we counted it

Castores Ushuaia: 198 ÷ 1 104 possessions	17.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	10th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 16

CUS 25.7 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Castores Ushuaia: 124 ÷ (124 + 358)	25.7 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	9th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 16th of 16

CUS 23.2 %

League 27.7 %

How we counted it

Castores Ushuaia: 222 tries ÷ 958 shots	23.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+0.6

Over 7 games Castores Ushuaia's shots were worth 463.4 points and they scored 464 from the floor: 0.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+0.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 197 + 70	464
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	463.4
Shot-making	+0.6
A game	+0.09

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Castores Ushuaia
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 235 league shots	13	0.83	10.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	6	0.84	5.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 352	12	0.78	9.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 352	2	0.78	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 352	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot46 % of 204 league shots	17	0.92	15.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	4	0.82	3.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 418 league shots	25	0.71	17.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	7	0.72	5.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	9	0.72	6.5
Rim · Drive63 % of 980 league shots	59	1.26	74.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 532	9	1.25	11.3
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 361 league shots	23	1.26	28.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 532	6	1.25	7.5
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	12	1.32	15.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	3	1.32	4.0
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	1	1.32	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot65 % of 220 league shots	15	1.30	19.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	5	1.28	6.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	9	1.26	11.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	1	1.26	1.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	4	1.04	4.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 520 league shots	121	1.07	129.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 221 league shots	13	0.84	10.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 254 league shots	19	1.06	20.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 025	2	1.05	2.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 294 league shots	18	1.03	18.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	4	0.99	4.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	2	0.99	2.0
Total adds up	437	1.06	463.4

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Where Castores Ushuaia shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

437 of 437 shots shown

45.1%

197 of 437 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 91 / 146 62% · avg 2.0 ft 45 of the 91 makes assisted league 63% 182pts

MID 36 / 102 35% · avg 14.6 ft 19 of the 36 makes assisted league 40% 72pts

THREE 70 / 189 37% · avg 25.0 ft 62 of the 70 makes assisted league 35% 210pts

197 of 437 from the floor, 464 points, + 83 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

126 of 197 makes were assisted (64%): 45 + 19 + 62.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Castores Ushuaia

33% 23% 43%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Castores Ushuaia

29% 46% 18%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Castores Ushuaia: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	127 drives + 32 post-ups + 199 catch and shoot + 79 pull-ups = 437

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Néstor Serrano SG 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

64/124 shots 132.9 expected 157 scored ▲ +24.1

Anicetas Merkys PF 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/58 shots 57.9 expected 58 scored ▲ +0.1

Hunter Davis SF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/55 shots 62.8 expected 60 scored ▼ −2.8

Ubirajara Moura SG 33 y

Solid41–60

Age: 33
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

27/67 shots 68.9 expected 65 scored ▼ −3.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.