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Čevljarji Tržič

Founded 1949 in Tržič

Dvorana ob Mošeniku, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Čevljarji Tržič's wins run ahead of its points

+1.5 wins

Čevljarji Tržič's points say about 9 wins in 18 league games. It has 11. The table has been a little kind.

11Wins so far

9.5Points say

71.7Scored a game

71.1Allowed a game

+0.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 290
Points allowed	1 280
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9922
To the power of 14	0.8968
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8968)	52.72%
× 18 games played	9.49
Wins the points say	9.5 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	+1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Čevljarji Tržič won 6 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Few trips to the line

15.2

Čevljarji Tržič attempt 15.2 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 18.9, so 10th of 10.

CET 15.2 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Čevljarji Tržič: 188 tries ÷ 1 235 shots	15.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Strength

Safe with the ball

14.8 %

Čevljarji Tržič give it away on 14.8 % of trips against the league's 15.9 %. Fewer is better: 3rd of 10.

CET 14.8 %

League 15.9 %

How we counted it

Čevljarji Tržič: 190 ÷ 1 287 possessions	14.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	15.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Strength

Strong on the glass

27.2 %

Čevljarji Tržič win back 27.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.8 %. That is 3rd of 10.

CET 27.2 %

League 25.8 %

How we counted it

Čevljarji Tržič: 195 ÷ (195 + 522)	27.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Best shot-maker

Miroslav Juhart

#55 · SG

40/82shots

95points

+15.2vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 82, 15 of them threes	40/82
Points: 2 × 40 + 15	95
His shots are worth (expected)	79.8
Above expected	95 − 79.8 = +15.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 10

CET 47.1 %

League 47.5 %

How we counted it

Čevljarji Tržič: (488 + ½ × 187) ÷ 1 235	47.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	47.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 10

CET 14.8 %

League 15.9 %

How we counted it

Čevljarji Tržič: 190 ÷ 1 287 possessions	14.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	15.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 10

CET 27.2 %

League 25.8 %

How we counted it

Čevljarji Tržič: 195 ÷ (195 + 522)	27.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 10

CET 15.2 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Čevljarji Tržič: 188 tries ÷ 1 235 shots	15.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+12.7

Over 8 games Čevljarji Tržič's shots were worth 518.3 points and they scored 531 from the floor: 1.6 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+12.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 222 + 87	531
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	518.3
Shot-making	+12.7
A game	+1.59

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Čevljarji Tržič
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 227 league shots	18	0.79	14.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 317	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 317	6	0.74	4.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 317	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 353	18	0.74	13.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot37 % of 234 league shots	31	0.74	22.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 308	6	0.71	4.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 308	3	0.71	2.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 308	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 404 league shots	34	0.75	25.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 567	7	0.73	5.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 567	6	0.73	4.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 567	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 809 league shots	73	1.17	85.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 187	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Drive · fast break70 % of 217 league shots	29	1.40	40.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 187	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	15	1.18	17.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	4	1.18	4.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	7	1.18	8.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	2	1.18	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	2	1.18	2.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	1	1.18	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 242	3	0.92	2.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 242	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 242	3	0.92	2.8
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 242	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 343 league shots	152	0.90	137.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 216 league shots	29	0.94	27.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 745	22	0.91	20.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 745	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Pull-up31 % of 290 league shots	29	0.93	27.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 383	9	0.92	8.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 383	5	0.92	4.6
Total adds up	541	0.96	518.3

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Where Čevljarji Tržič shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

541 of 541 shots shown

41.0%

222 of 541 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 92 / 151 61% · avg 2.1 ft 49 of the 92 makes assisted league 59% 184pts

MID 43 / 135 32% · avg 14.4 ft 21 of the 43 makes assisted league 36% 86pts

THREE 87 / 255 34% · avg 25.1 ft 67 of the 87 makes assisted league 30% 261pts

222 of 541 from the floor, 531 points, + 58 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

137 of 222 makes were assisted (62%): 49 + 21 + 67.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Čevljarji Tržič

28% 25% 47%

League

30% 26% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Čevljarji Tržič

28% 47% 18%

League

31% 42% 20%

How we counted it

Čevljarji Tržič: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	149 drives + 39 post-ups + 256 catch and shoot + 97 pull-ups = 541

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Miroslav Juhart SG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/82 shots 79.8 expected 95 scored ▲ +15.2

Marios Gaspar SF 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 1

60/154 shots 144.5 expected 150 scored ▲ +5.5

Mihael Kleinert PG 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

30/67 shots 69.3 expected 63 scored ▼ −6.3

Henrik Bulota SF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/81 shots 75.7 expected 67 scored ▼ −8.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.