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Chantiers Nantes

Founded 1949 in Nantes

Salle de l'Estuaire, holding 10 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Chantiers Nantes's wins trail its points

−1.1 wins

Chantiers Nantes's points say about 9 wins in 15 league games. It has 8. The table has been a little unkind.

8Wins so far

9.1Points say

89.2Scored a game

86.4Allowed a game

+2.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 338
Points allowed	1 296
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9686
To the power of 14	0.6399
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.6399)	60.98%
× 15 games played	9.15
Wins the points say	9.1 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−1.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Chantiers Nantes won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

30.1 %

Chantiers Nantes win back 30.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.8 %. That is 1st of 16.

CHN 30.1 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Chantiers Nantes: 139 ÷ (139 + 323)	30.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

32.4

Chantiers Nantes attempt 32.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 29.5, so 3rd of 16.

CHN 32.4 %

League 29.5 %

How we counted it

Chantiers Nantes: 312 tries ÷ 964 shots	32.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	29.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.9 %

Chantiers Nantes give it away on 18.9 % of trips against the league's 18.4 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 16.

CHN 18.9 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Chantiers Nantes: 218 ÷ 1 152 possessions	18.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Best shot-maker

Henri Alston

#41 · SF

40/62shots

93points

+24.6vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 62, 13 of them threes	40/62
Points: 2 × 40 + 13	93
His shots are worth (expected)	68.4
Above expected	93 − 68.4 = +24.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 16

CHN 56.0 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Chantiers Nantes: (470 + ½ × 139) ÷ 964	56.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	11th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 16

CHN 18.9 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Chantiers Nantes: 218 ÷ 1 152 possessions	18.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 16

CHN 30.1 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Chantiers Nantes: 139 ÷ (139 + 323)	30.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 16

CHN 32.4 %

League 29.5 %

How we counted it

Chantiers Nantes: 312 tries ÷ 964 shots	32.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	29.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+20.9

Over 7 games Chantiers Nantes's shots were worth 478.1 points and they scored 499 from the floor: 3.0 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+20.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 217 + 65	499
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	478.1
Shot-making	+20.9
A game	+2.99

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Chantiers Nantes
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 283	7	0.81	5.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 283	4	0.81	3.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 283	3	0.81	2.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 283	1	0.81	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 230	9	0.91	8.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 230	1	0.91	0.9
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 230	1	0.91	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 220	13	0.87	11.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 220	5	0.87	4.4
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 482 league shots	32	0.81	26.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 667	6	0.83	5.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 667	9	0.83	7.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 667	1	0.83	0.8
Rim · Drive62 % of 1 130 league shots	73	1.24	90.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 788	13	1.28	16.6
Rim · Drive · fast break71 % of 422 league shots	23	1.41	32.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 788	6	1.28	7.7
Rim · Post-up64 % of 292 league shots	15	1.29	19.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 365	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 365	5	1.26	6.3
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 266 league shots	12	1.26	15.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 429	3	1.25	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 429	8	1.25	10.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 429	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 210	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 210	4	1.18	4.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 210	2	1.18	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 235	8	1.05	8.4
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 235	4	1.05	4.2
Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 1 546 league shots	92	1.10	101.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 243 league shots	13	0.95	12.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 293 league shots	21	1.18	24.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 124	1	1.09	1.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 400 league shots	24	1.01	24.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 535	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 535	5	1.04	5.2
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 535	1	1.04	1.0
Total adds up	433	1.10	478.1

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Where Chantiers Nantes shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

433 of 433 shots shown

50.1%

217 of 433 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 113 / 171 66% · avg 1.9 ft 71 of the 113 makes assisted league 64% 226pts

MID 39 / 92 42% · avg 14.7 ft 17 of the 39 makes assisted league 43% 78pts

THREE 65 / 170 38% · avg 25.6 ft 55 of the 65 makes assisted league 37% 195pts

217 of 433 from the floor, 499 points, + 118 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

143 of 217 makes were assisted (66%): 71 + 17 + 55.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Chantiers Nantes

39% 21% 39%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Chantiers Nantes

33% 39% 21%

League

32% 9% 39% 20%

How we counted it

Chantiers Nantes: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	142 drives + 32 post-ups + 169 catch and shoot + 90 pull-ups = 433

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Henri Alston SF 32 y

Strong61–80

Age: 32
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/62 shots 68.4 expected 93 scored ▲ +24.6

Clayton Burns SG 33 y

Strong61–80

Age: 33
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

36/75 shots 81.2 expected 84 scored ▲ +2.8

Philippe Moreau PG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

53/115 shots 128.5 expected 125 scored ▼ −3.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.