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Chelones Zakynthos

Founded 1933 in Zakynthos

Gymnastirio tou Bochali, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Chelones Zakynthos's wins run ahead of its points

+1.2 wins

Chelones Zakynthos's points say about 9 wins in 13 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little kind.

10Wins so far

8.8Points say

80.1Scored a game

75.9Allowed a game

+4.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 041
Points allowed	987
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9481
To the power of 14	0.4744
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4744)	67.82%
× 13 games played	8.82
Wins the points say	8.8 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+1.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Chelones Zakynthos won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.8 %

Chelones Zakynthos win back 22.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 14th of 14.

CHZ 22.8 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Chelones Zakynthos: 100 ÷ (100 + 338)	22.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

26.7

Chelones Zakynthos attempt 26.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.7, so 2nd of 14.

CHZ 26.7 %

League 22.7 %

How we counted it

Chelones Zakynthos: 224 tries ÷ 838 shots	26.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

A strong attack

107.2

Chelones Zakynthos score 107.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.0. That is 3rd of 14.

CHZ 107.2

League 104.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 041 points ÷ 971 possessions	107.2
League mean, 14 clubs	104.0
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Fokas Lindner

#5 · PF

47/92shots

111points

+19.8vs expected

How we counted it

47 made of 92, 17 of them threes	47/92
Points: 2 × 47 + 17	111
His shots are worth (expected)	91.2
Above expected	111 − 91.2 = +19.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 14

CHZ 51.6 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Chelones Zakynthos: (376 + ½ × 112) ÷ 838	51.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 14

CHZ 15.7 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Chelones Zakynthos: 152 ÷ 971 possessions	15.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 14th of 14

CHZ 22.8 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Chelones Zakynthos: 100 ÷ (100 + 338)	22.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 14

CHZ 26.7 %

League 22.7 %

How we counted it

Chelones Zakynthos: 224 tries ÷ 838 shots	26.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+47.2

Over 6 games Chelones Zakynthos's shots were worth 373.8 points and they scored 421 from the floor: 7.9 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+47.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 184 + 53	421
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	373.8
Shot-making	+47.2
A game	+7.87

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Chelones Zakynthos
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 215 league shots	17	0.80	13.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 306	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 306	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 306	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 263	5	0.77	3.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 263	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 263	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	13	0.79	10.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	5	0.79	3.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 411 league shots	33	0.73	23.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 568	2	0.76	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 568	3	0.76	2.3
Rim · Drive60 % of 887 league shots	61	1.20	73.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 352	7	1.21	8.5
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 284 league shots	24	1.17	28.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 352	4	1.21	4.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	11	1.02	11.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	3	1.02	3.0
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	1	1.02	1.0
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	14	1.23	17.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 908	8	1.19	9.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 908	1	1.19	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	13	0.97	12.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	4	0.97	3.9
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 284 league shots	76	0.94	71.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 221 league shots	6	0.92	5.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 719	15	0.97	14.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 719	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 280 league shots	24	0.96	23.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 382	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 382	3	0.99	3.0
Total adds up	377	0.99	373.8

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Where Chelones Zakynthos shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

377 of 377 shots shown

48.8%

184 of 377 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 92 / 141 65% · avg 2.0 ft 46 of the 92 makes assisted league 60% 184pts

MID 39 / 90 43% · avg 15.1 ft 20 of the 39 makes assisted league 38% 78pts

THREE 53 / 146 36% · avg 25.2 ft 43 of the 53 makes assisted league 32% 159pts

184 of 377 from the floor, 421 points, + 79 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

109 of 184 makes were assisted (59%): 46 + 20 + 43.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Chelones Zakynthos

37% 24% 39%

League

35% 23% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Chelones Zakynthos

37% 37% 20%

League

33% 40% 19%

How we counted it

Chelones Zakynthos: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	138 drives + 22 post-ups + 140 catch and shoot + 77 pull-ups = 377

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Fokas Lindner PF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

47/92 shots 91.2 expected 111 scored ▲ +19.8

Nikodimos Dorn SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/77 shots 73.4 expected 81 scored ▲ +7.6

Avgoustinos Ozan SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

24/50 shots 52.8 expected 55 scored ▲ +2.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.