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Chirigotas Cádiz

Founded 1970 in Cádiz

Pabellón de la Caleta, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Chirigotas Cádiz's wins match its points

+0.9 wins

Chirigotas Cádiz's points say about 6 wins in 17 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

6.1Points say

79.8Scored a game

83.2Allowed a game

−3.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 356
Points allowed	1 414
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0428
To the power of 14	1.7974
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.7974)	35.75%
× 17 games played	6.08
Wins the points say	6.1 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Chirigotas Cádiz won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

50.2 %

Chirigotas Cádiz shoot 50.2 % effective. The league shoots 53.1 %. That is 17th of 18.

CHC 50.2 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Chirigotas Cádiz: (475 + ½ × 141) ÷ 1 087	50.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	17th of 18

Weakness

A thin attack

105.9

Chirigotas Cádiz score 105.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.2. That is 14th of 18.

CHC 105.9

League 110.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 356 points ÷ 1 280 possessions	105.9
League mean, 18 clubs	110.2
Rank, 18 clubs	14th of 18

Weakness

Weak on the glass

25.7 %

Chirigotas Cádiz win back 25.7 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.8 %. That is 13th of 18.

CHC 25.7 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Chirigotas Cádiz: 150 ÷ (150 + 434)	25.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	13th of 18

Best shot-maker

Gerardo Briones

#41 · PG

54/109shots

136points

+19.8vs expected

How we counted it

54 made of 109, 28 of them threes	54/109
Points: 2 × 54 + 28	136
His shots are worth (expected)	116.2
Above expected	136 − 116.2 = +19.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 17th of 18

CHC 50.2 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Chirigotas Cádiz: (475 + ½ × 141) ÷ 1 087	50.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	17th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 18

CHC 18.0 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Chirigotas Cádiz: 231 ÷ 1 280 possessions	18.0 %
League mean, 18 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	12th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 13th of 18

CHC 25.7 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Chirigotas Cádiz: 150 ÷ (150 + 434)	25.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	13th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 18

CHC 28.8 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Chirigotas Cádiz: 313 tries ÷ 1 087 shots	28.8 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	6th of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−37.2

Over 8 games Chirigotas Cádiz's shots were worth 515.2 points and they scored 478 from the floor: 4.6 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−37.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 208 + 62	478
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	515.2
Shot-making	−37.2
A game	−4.65

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Chirigotas Cádiz
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 309 league shots	16	0.89	14.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	4	0.88	3.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	8	0.88	7.0
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 202 league shots	12	0.81	9.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 248	2	0.83	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 313 league shots	17	0.72	12.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	5	0.72	3.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 662 league shots	29	0.80	23.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	7	0.82	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	7	0.82	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	1	0.82	0.8
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 355 league shots	78	1.25	97.6
Rim · Drive · second chance60 % of 233 league shots	8	1.20	9.6
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 487 league shots	22	1.33	29.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 2 154	8	1.26	10.1
Rim · Post-up60 % of 336 league shots	24	1.20	28.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	7	1.22	8.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	2	1.22	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 313 league shots	15	1.25	18.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	11	1.22	13.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	5	1.29	6.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	2	1.29	2.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	12	1.06	12.7
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	4	1.06	4.3
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 879	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 083 league shots	116	1.02	118.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 389 league shots	18	0.99	17.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 392 league shots	13	1.07	13.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 915	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Pull-up34 % of 510 league shots	20	1.01	20.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	4	1.02	4.1
Total adds up	486	1.06	515.2

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Where Chirigotas Cádiz shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

486 of 486 shots shown

42.8%

208 of 486 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 111 / 183 61% · avg 2.0 ft 71 of the 111 makes assisted league 63% 222pts

MID 35 / 111 32% · avg 14.3 ft 19 of the 35 makes assisted league 40% 70pts

THREE 62 / 192 32% · avg 25.1 ft 57 of the 62 makes assisted league 34% 186pts

208 of 486 from the floor, 478 points, + 118 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

147 of 208 makes were assisted (71%): 71 + 19 + 57.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Chirigotas Cádiz

38% 23% 40%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Chirigotas Cádiz

33% 10% 41% 16%

League

32% 41% 19%

Chirigotas Cádiz lean on post-ups: 9.9 % of its shots against the league's 7.5 %.

How we counted it

Chirigotas Cádiz: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	160 drives + 48 post-ups + 200 catch and shoot + 78 pull-ups = 486

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gerardo Briones PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

54/109 shots 116.2 expected 136 scored ▲ +19.8

Teodoro Ferreira SF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

31/57 shots 62.1 expected 66 scored ▲ +3.9

Alfonso Parra PF 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

33/71 shots 76.7 expected 71 scored ▼ −5.7

Pau Araújo SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/61 shots 63.4 expected 56 scored ▼ −7.4

Diego Lozano SG 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

29/88 shots 93.3 expected 65 scored ▼ −28.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.