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Chocolatiers Bayonne

Founded 1953 in Bayonne

Salle de la Nive, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Chocolatiers Bayonne's wins trail its points

−1.5 wins

Chocolatiers Bayonne's points say about 8 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little unkind.

7Wins so far

8.5Points say

75.7Scored a game

72.4Allowed a game

+3.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	984
Points allowed	941
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9563
To the power of 14	0.5350
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5350)	65.15%
× 13 games played	8.47
Wins the points say	8.5 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Chocolatiers Bayonne won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

99.1

Chocolatiers Bayonne let in 99.1 per 100 trips against the league's 104.1. Lower is better: 1st of 14.

CHB 99.1

League 104.1

How we counted it

100 × 941 allowed ÷ 950 possessions	99.1
League mean, 14 clubs	104.1
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

20.3

Chocolatiers Bayonne attempt 20.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 24.8, so 14th of 14.

CHB 20.3 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Chocolatiers Bayonne: 168 tries ÷ 827 shots	20.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

51.9 %

Chocolatiers Bayonne shoot 51.9 % effective. The league shoots 50.6 %. That is 3rd of 14.

CHB 51.9 %

League 50.6 %

How we counted it

Chocolatiers Bayonne: (367 + ½ × 125) ÷ 827	51.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Célestin Duman

#93 · SG

36/74shots

86points

+12.4vs expected

How we counted it

36 made of 74, 14 of them threes	36/74
Points: 2 × 36 + 14	86
His shots are worth (expected)	73.6
Above expected	86 − 73.6 = +12.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 14

CHB 51.9 %

League 50.6 %

How we counted it

Chocolatiers Bayonne: (367 + ½ × 125) ÷ 827	51.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 14

CHB 18.0 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Chocolatiers Bayonne: 172 ÷ 953 possessions	18.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 12th of 14

CHB 23.0 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Chocolatiers Bayonne: 101 ÷ (101 + 339)	23.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 14th of 14

CHB 20.3 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Chocolatiers Bayonne: 168 tries ÷ 827 shots	20.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−1.0

Over 6 games Chocolatiers Bayonne's shots were worth 368.0 points and they scored 367 from the floor: 0.2 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−1.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 156 + 55	367
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	368.0
Shot-making	−1.0
A game	−0.17

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Chocolatiers Bayonne
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 286	12	0.90	10.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 286	2	0.90	1.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 286	8	0.90	7.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 286	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 169	10	0.75	7.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 169	1	0.75	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 212 league shots	10	0.77	7.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 273	3	0.75	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 273	2	0.75	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up31 % of 369 league shots	23	0.62	14.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 463	6	0.64	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 463	2	0.64	1.3
Rim · Drive59 % of 824 league shots	56	1.19	66.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 291	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Drive · fast break59 % of 292 league shots	16	1.18	19.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 291	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	12	1.21	14.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	3	1.21	3.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 210	8	1.26	10.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 210	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 210	6	1.26	7.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	5	1.21	6.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	2	1.21	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 323	4	1.00	4.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 323	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 323	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 323	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 372 league shots	104	0.99	103.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance39 % of 231 league shots	19	1.18	22.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 827	14	1.03	14.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 827	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Pull-up29 % of 269 league shots	19	0.86	16.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 355	2	0.85	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 355	3	0.85	2.6
Total adds up	365	1.01	368.0

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Where Chocolatiers Bayonne shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

365 of 365 shots shown

42.7%

156 of 365 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 68 / 116 59% · avg 1.9 ft 32 of the 68 makes assisted league 61% 136pts

MID 33 / 80 41% · avg 14.5 ft 16 of the 33 makes assisted league 38% 66pts

THREE 55 / 169 33% · avg 25.1 ft 48 of the 55 makes assisted league 33% 165pts

156 of 365 from the floor, 367 points, + 76 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

96 of 156 makes were assisted (62%): 32 + 16 + 48.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Chocolatiers Bayonne

32% 22% 46%

League

34% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Chocolatiers Bayonne

29% 46% 17%

League

32% 44% 17%

How we counted it

Chocolatiers Bayonne: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	106 drives + 29 post-ups + 168 catch and shoot + 62 pull-ups = 365

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Célestin Duman SG 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

36/74 shots 73.6 expected 86 scored ▲ +12.4

Martial Menard PF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

23/52 shots 52.3 expected 53 scored ▲ +0.7

César Lamy SF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

24/73 shots 72.6 expected 64 scored ▼ −8.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.