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Chopeiros Blumenau

Founded 1938 in Blumenau

Ginásio do Vale do Itajaí, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Chopeiros Blumenau's wins match its points

+0.2 wins

Chopeiros Blumenau's points say about 12 wins in 18 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

11.8Points say

80.3Scored a game

76.7Allowed a game

+3.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 446
Points allowed	1 381
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9550
To the power of 14	0.5252
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5252)	65.56%
× 18 games played	11.80
Wins the points say	11.8 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Chopeiros Blumenau won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

29.2 %

Chopeiros Blumenau win back 29.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.3 %. That is 1st of 10.

CBL 29.2 %

League 25.3 %

How we counted it

Chopeiros Blumenau: 179 ÷ (179 + 435)	29.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

33.2

Chopeiros Blumenau attempt 33.2 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.9, so 1st of 10.

CBL 33.2 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Chopeiros Blumenau: 377 tries ÷ 1 136 shots	33.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

A solid defence

102.1

Chopeiros Blumenau let in 102.1 per 100 trips against the league's 107.9. Lower is better: 2nd of 10.

CBL 102.1

League 107.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 381 allowed ÷ 1 352 possessions	102.1
League mean, 10 clubs	107.9
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Best shot-maker

Andrés Ramírez

#64 · PG

53/82shots

122points

+33.3vs expected

How we counted it

53 made of 82, 16 of them threes	53/82
Points: 2 × 53 + 16	122
His shots are worth (expected)	88.7
Above expected	122 − 88.7 = +33.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 10

CBL 51.4 %

League 53.0 %

How we counted it

Chopeiros Blumenau: (514 + ½ × 140) ÷ 1 136	51.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	53.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 10

CBL 18.7 %

League 17.9 %

How we counted it

Chopeiros Blumenau: 253 ÷ 1 350 possessions	18.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	17.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 10

CBL 29.2 %

League 25.3 %

How we counted it

Chopeiros Blumenau: 179 ÷ (179 + 435)	29.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 10

CBL 33.2 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Chopeiros Blumenau: 377 tries ÷ 1 136 shots	33.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+30.0

Over 8 games Chopeiros Blumenau's shots were worth 539.0 points and they scored 569 from the floor: 3.8 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+30.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 249 + 71	569
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	539.0
Shot-making	+30.0
A game	+3.76

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Chopeiros Blumenau
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 253	23	0.86	19.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 253	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 253	11	0.86	9.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 253	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 141	11	0.79	8.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 141	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 141	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 262	10	0.78	7.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 262	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 262	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 354 league shots	31	0.79	24.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 477	6	0.80	4.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 477	4	0.80	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 477	1	0.80	0.8
Rim · Drive59 % of 769 league shots	81	1.18	95.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 229	8	1.23	9.8
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 296 league shots	37	1.36	50.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 229	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 210	19	1.35	25.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 210	3	1.35	4.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 210	3	1.35	4.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 254	16	1.22	19.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 254	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 254	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 254	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 788	8	1.25	10.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 788	1	1.25	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 788	7	1.25	8.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 788	1	1.25	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 149	12	1.04	12.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 149	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 149	4	1.04	4.2
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 212 league shots	90	1.05	94.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 656	19	1.06	20.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break42 % of 233 league shots	22	1.26	27.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 656	5	1.06	5.3
Three · Pull-up37 % of 252 league shots	25	1.12	28.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 338	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 338	6	1.02	6.1
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 338	1	1.02	1.0
Total adds up	494	1.09	539.0

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Where Chopeiros Blumenau shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

494 of 494 shots shown

50.4%

249 of 494 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 129 / 197 66% · avg 2.0 ft 69 of the 129 makes assisted league 63% 258pts

MID 49 / 109 45% · avg 14.7 ft 21 of the 49 makes assisted league 40% 98pts

THREE 71 / 188 38% · avg 25.1 ft 60 of the 71 makes assisted league 35% 213pts

249 of 494 from the floor, 569 points, + 134 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

150 of 249 makes were assisted (60%): 69 + 21 + 60.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Chopeiros Blumenau

40% 22% 38%

League

35% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Chopeiros Blumenau

38% 36% 19%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Chopeiros Blumenau: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	186 drives + 38 post-ups + 176 catch and shoot + 94 pull-ups = 494

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Andrés Ramírez PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 2

53/82 shots 88.7 expected 122 scored ▲ +33.3

Tiago Castro SG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 2

60/124 shots 139.2 expected 141 scored ▲ +1.8

Álvaro Durand SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/53 shots 59.0 expected 56 scored ▼ −3.0

Lincoln Gomes SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/75 shots 79.0 expected 75 scored ▼ −4.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.