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Colombages Rennes

Founded 1974 in Rennes

Salle de la Vilaine, holding 8 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Colombages Rennes's wins run ahead of its points

+1.4 wins

Colombages Rennes's points say about 11 wins in 15 league games. It has 12. The table has been a little kind.

12Wins so far

10.6Points say

89.3Scored a game

83.8Allowed a game

+5.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 340
Points allowed	1 257
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9381
To the power of 14	0.4085
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4085)	71.00%
× 15 games played	10.65
Wins the points say	10.6 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+1.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Colombages Rennes won 5 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

107.7

Colombages Rennes let in 107.7 per 100 trips against the league's 114.5. Lower is better: 1st of 16.

COR 107.7

League 114.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 257 allowed ÷ 1 167 possessions	107.7
League mean, 16 clubs	114.5
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Weakness

Few trips to the line

26.6

Colombages Rennes attempt 26.6 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 29.5, so 15th of 16.

COR 26.6 %

League 29.5 %

How we counted it

Colombages Rennes: 266 tries ÷ 1 000 shots	26.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	29.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	15th of 16

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.8 %

Colombages Rennes win back 24.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.8 %. That is 14th of 16.

COR 24.8 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Colombages Rennes: 122 ÷ (122 + 369)	24.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

Best shot-maker

Yohan Debray

#62 · PG

36/67shots

79points

+2.0vs expected

How we counted it

36 made of 67, 7 of them threes	36/67
Points: 2 × 36 + 7	79
His shots are worth (expected)	77.0
Above expected	79 − 77.0 = +2.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 16

COR 56.8 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Colombages Rennes: (495 + ½ × 145) ÷ 1 000	56.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	8th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 16

COR 17.4 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Colombages Rennes: 203 ÷ 1 165 possessions	17.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 14th of 16

COR 24.8 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Colombages Rennes: 122 ÷ (122 + 369)	24.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 15th of 16

COR 26.6 %

League 29.5 %

How we counted it

Colombages Rennes: 266 tries ÷ 1 000 shots	26.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	29.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	15th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−33.1

Over 7 games Colombages Rennes's shots were worth 525.1 points and they scored 492 from the floor: 4.7 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−33.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 217 + 58	492
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	525.1
Shot-making	−33.1
A game	−4.72

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Colombages Rennes
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 283	12	0.81	9.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 283	2	0.81	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 283	8	0.81	6.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 230	8	0.91	7.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 230	2	0.91	1.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 230	1	0.91	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 220	5	0.87	4.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 220	4	0.87	3.5
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 482 league shots	27	0.81	22.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 667	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 667	2	0.83	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 667	3	0.83	2.5
Rim · Drive62 % of 1 130 league shots	72	1.24	89.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 788	13	1.28	16.6
Rim · Drive · fast break71 % of 422 league shots	35	1.41	49.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 788	6	1.28	7.7
Rim · Post-up64 % of 292 league shots	21	1.29	27.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 365	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 365	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 365	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 266 league shots	24	1.26	30.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 429	4	1.25	5.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 429	9	1.25	11.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 429	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 210	11	1.18	13.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 210	3	1.18	3.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 210	7	1.18	8.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 235	9	1.05	9.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 235	1	1.05	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 235	8	1.05	8.4
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 2 919	2	1.07	2.2
Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 1 546 league shots	98	1.10	108.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 243 league shots	20	0.95	19.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 293 league shots	8	1.18	9.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 124	2	1.09	2.2
Three · Pull-up34 % of 400 league shots	19	1.01	19.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 535	3	1.04	3.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 535	5	1.04	5.2
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 535	1	1.04	1.0
Total adds up	467	1.12	525.1

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Where Colombages Rennes shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

467 of 467 shots shown

46.5%

217 of 467 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 126 / 214 59% · avg 2.0 ft 64 of the 126 makes assisted league 64% 252pts

MID 33 / 77 43% · avg 14.2 ft 12 of the 33 makes assisted league 43% 66pts

THREE 58 / 176 33% · avg 25.1 ft 51 of the 58 makes assisted league 37% 174pts

217 of 467 from the floor, 492 points, + 97 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

127 of 217 makes were assisted (59%): 64 + 12 + 51.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Colombages Rennes

46% 16% 38%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Colombages Rennes

36% 9% 37% 18%

League

32% 9% 39% 20%

How we counted it

Colombages Rennes: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	166 drives + 42 post-ups + 175 catch and shoot + 84 pull-ups = 467

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Yohan Debray PG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

36/67 shots 77.0 expected 79 scored ▲ +2.0

Olivier Bamgbose SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/73 shots 80.2 expected 79 scored ▼ −1.2

Kimon Fischer SF 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

25/54 shots 62.2 expected 59 scored ▼ −3.2

Marc Anazodo PG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/62 shots 67.4 expected 50 scored ▼ −17.4

Gustave Goujon C 33 y

Strong61–80

Age: 33
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

21/56 shots 64.7 expected 45 scored ▼ −19.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.