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Condes Monforte de Lemos

Founded 1978 in Monforte de Lemos

Pavillón do Cabe, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Condes Monforte de Lemos's wins match its points

+0.8 wins

Condes Monforte de Lemos's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

4.2Points say

70.6Scored a game

74.5Allowed a game

−3.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	918
Points allowed	968
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0545
To the power of 14	2.1012
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.1012)	32.25%
× 13 games played	4.19
Wins the points say	4.2 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Condes Monforte de Lemos won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

46.6 %

Condes Monforte de Lemos shoot 46.6 % effective. The league shoots 48.9 %. That is 13th of 14.

CML 46.6 %

League 48.9 %

How we counted it

Condes Monforte de Lemos: (344 + ½ × 104) ÷ 850	46.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

14.7 %

Condes Monforte de Lemos give it away on 14.7 % of trips against the league's 16.1 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 14.

CML 14.7 %

League 16.1 %

How we counted it

Condes Monforte de Lemos: 137 ÷ 933 possessions	14.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Weakness

Weak on the glass

23.2 %

Condes Monforte de Lemos win back 23.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.7 %. That is 13th of 14.

CML 23.2 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Condes Monforte de Lemos: 112 ÷ (112 + 371)	23.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Best shot-maker

Xavier Galloway

#74 · SG

55/137shots

134points

+2.1vs expected

How we counted it

55 made of 137, 24 of them threes	55/137
Points: 2 × 55 + 24	134
His shots are worth (expected)	131.9
Above expected	134 − 131.9 = +2.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

CML 46.6 %

League 48.9 %

How we counted it

Condes Monforte de Lemos: (344 + ½ × 104) ÷ 850	46.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 14

CML 14.7 %

League 16.1 %

How we counted it

Condes Monforte de Lemos: 137 ÷ 933 possessions	14.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 13th of 14

CML 23.2 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Condes Monforte de Lemos: 112 ÷ (112 + 371)	23.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 14

CML 20.0 %

League 21.1 %

How we counted it

Condes Monforte de Lemos: 170 tries ÷ 850 shots	20.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−13.5

Over 6 games Condes Monforte de Lemos's shots were worth 377.5 points and they scored 364 from the floor: 2.2 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−13.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 158 + 48	364
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	377.5
Shot-making	−13.5
A game	−2.25

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Condes Monforte de Lemos
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive45 % of 234 league shots	15	0.91	13.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 331	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 331	4	0.83	3.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 209	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 209	1	0.74	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 209	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 209	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 267	16	0.77	12.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 267	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 267	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up33 % of 359 league shots	39	0.66	25.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 469	6	0.70	4.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 469	3	0.70	2.1
Rim · Drive60 % of 932 league shots	81	1.19	96.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 361	6	1.21	7.3
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 244 league shots	18	1.31	23.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 361	4	1.21	4.9
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	7	1.23	8.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	5	1.23	6.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	7	1.23	8.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 381	4	0.90	3.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 381	1	0.90	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 381	3	0.90	2.7
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 430 league shots	97	0.90	87.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance26 % of 265 league shots	15	0.79	11.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 901	16	0.89	14.2
Three · Pull-up31 % of 277 league shots	19	0.92	17.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 352	1	0.90	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 352	1	0.90	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 352	1	0.90	0.9
Total adds up	391	0.97	377.5

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Where Condes Monforte de Lemos shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

391 of 391 shots shown

40.4%

158 of 391 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 79 / 134 59% · avg 1.9 ft 40 of the 79 makes assisted league 61% 158pts

MID 31 / 99 31% · avg 15.3 ft 13 of the 31 makes assisted league 39% 62pts

THREE 48 / 158 30% · avg 25.1 ft 43 of the 48 makes assisted league 30% 144pts

158 of 391 from the floor, 364 points, + 58 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

96 of 158 makes were assisted (61%): 40 + 13 + 43.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Condes Monforte de Lemos

34% 25% 40%

League

33% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Condes Monforte de Lemos

36% 41% 19%

League

34% 43% 17%

How we counted it

Condes Monforte de Lemos: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	139 drives + 18 post-ups + 161 catch and shoot + 73 pull-ups = 391

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Xavier Galloway SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

55/137 shots 131.9 expected 134 scored ▲ +2.1

Valeriano Öksüz PG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/98 shots 93.4 expected 91 scored ▼ −2.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.