Watching Europe and South America 69 leagues
Founded 1938 in Siena
Palazzetto di Fontebranda, holding 6 500
The four factors
The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.
They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.
Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.
Contrade Siena attempt 30.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.1, so 2nd of 20.
| Contrade Siena: 358 tries ÷ 1 164 shots | 30.8 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 26.1 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 2nd of 20 |
Contrade Siena win back 29.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.9 %. That is 4th of 20.
| Contrade Siena: 175 ÷ (175 + 425) | 29.2 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 26.9 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 4th of 20 |
Contrade Siena score 113.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.5. That is 5th of 20.
| 100 × 1 532 points ÷ 1 352 possessions | 113.3 |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 109.5 |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 5th of 20 |
#26 · SG
| 54 made of 108, 17 of them threes | 54/108 |
|---|---|
| Points: 2 × 54 + 17 | 125 |
| His shots are worth (expected) | 115.3 |
| Above expected | 125 − 115.3 = +9.7 adds up |
| Contrade Siena: (549 + ½ × 171) ÷ 1 164 | 54.5 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 52.8 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 6th of 20 |
| Contrade Siena: 246 ÷ 1 352 possessions | 18.2 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 17.6 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 16th of 20 |
| Contrade Siena: 175 ÷ (175 + 425) | 29.2 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 26.9 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 4th of 20 |
| Contrade Siena: 358 tries ÷ 1 164 shots | 30.8 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 26.1 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 2nd of 20 |
Shot-making
Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.
Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.
Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.
Over 8 games Contrade Siena's shots were worth 530.8 points and they scored 537 from the floor: 0.8 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.
| Points: 2 × 233 + 71 | 537 |
|---|---|
| Expected points, the squad's shots added up | 530.8 |
| Shot-making | +6.2 |
| A game | +0.77 |
Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.
| Kind of shot | Shots | Worth | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-range · Drive39 % of 337 league shots | 17 | 0.77 | 13.1 |
| Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 532 | 2 | 0.77 | 1.5 |
| Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 532 | 5 | 0.77 | 3.8 |
| Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 532 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.8 |
| Mid-range · Post-up33 % of 228 league shots | 12 | 0.66 | 7.9 |
| Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 276 | 2 | 0.62 | 1.3 |
| Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 276 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.6 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 319 league shots | 12 | 0.77 | 9.3 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453 | 2 | 0.74 | 1.5 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453 | 3 | 0.74 | 2.2 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 756 league shots | 23 | 0.80 | 18.5 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 002 | 2 | 0.80 | 1.6 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 002 | 2 | 0.80 | 1.6 |
| Rim · Drive63 % of 1 583 league shots | 86 | 1.26 | 108.5 |
| Rim · Drive · second chance56 % of 268 league shots | 11 | 1.11 | 12.2 |
| Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 518 league shots | 23 | 1.35 | 31.1 |
| Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 2 446 | 4 | 1.27 | 5.1 |
| Rim · Post-up64 % of 346 league shots | 15 | 1.28 | 19.3 |
| Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 442 | 3 | 1.28 | 3.8 |
| Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 442 | 1 | 1.28 | 1.3 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot58 % of 314 league shots | 25 | 1.17 | 29.1 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 486 | 3 | 1.22 | 3.7 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 486 | 8 | 1.22 | 9.8 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 486 | 1 | 1.22 | 1.2 |
| Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 262 | 13 | 1.24 | 16.2 |
| Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 262 | 1 | 1.24 | 1.2 |
| Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 262 | 2 | 1.24 | 2.5 |
| Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 262 | 1 | 1.24 | 1.2 |
| Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 272 | 8 | 1.06 | 8.5 |
| Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 272 | 2 | 1.06 | 2.1 |
| Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 272 | 3 | 1.06 | 3.2 |
| Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 4 357 | 2 | 1.04 | 2.1 |
| Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 2 464 league shots | 117 | 1.06 | 123.9 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 380 league shots | 26 | 0.95 | 24.6 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 423 league shots | 21 | 1.09 | 22.8 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 3 315 | 2 | 1.05 | 2.1 |
| Three · Pull-up34 % of 548 league shots | 23 | 1.02 | 23.4 |
| Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 747 | 5 | 1.02 | 5.1 |
| Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 747 | 2 | 1.02 | 2.1 |
| Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 747 | 1 | 1.02 | 1.0 |
| Total adds up | 493 | 1.08 | 530.8 |
Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.
Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.
| Contrade Siena: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups | 162 drives + 36 post-ups + 220 catch and shoot + 75 pull-ups = 493 |
|---|
Expected points
The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.
It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.
Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.
A man is listed from 50 shots.
