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Cuchilleros Albacete

Founded 1956 in Albacete

Pabellón de la Feria, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Cuchilleros Albacete's wins trail its points

−1.7 wins

Cuchilleros Albacete's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 2. The table has been a little unkind.

2Wins so far

3.7Points say

70.4Scored a game

75.1Allowed a game

−4.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	915
Points allowed	976
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0667
To the power of 14	2.4683
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.4683)	28.83%
× 13 games played	3.75
Wins the points say	3.7 adds up

Wins so far	2
Difference	−1.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Cuchilleros Albacete won 2 and lost 5. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

45.2 %

Cuchilleros Albacete shoot 45.2 % effective. The league shoots 48.4 %. That is 13th of 14.

CAL 45.2 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Cuchilleros Albacete: (339 + ½ × 94) ÷ 854	45.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

24.4

Cuchilleros Albacete attempt 24.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 21.4, so 2nd of 14.

CAL 24.4 %

League 21.4 %

How we counted it

Cuchilleros Albacete: 208 tries ÷ 854 shots	24.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

97.2

Cuchilleros Albacete score 97.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 101.6. That is 11th of 14.

CAL 97.2

League 101.6

How we counted it

100 × 915 points ÷ 941 possessions	97.2
League mean, 14 clubs	101.6
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Best shot-maker

Eloy Diallo

#36 · SG

32/75shots

76points

+1.0vs expected

How we counted it

32 made of 75, 12 of them threes	32/75
Points: 2 × 32 + 12	76
His shots are worth (expected)	75.0
Above expected	76 − 75.0 = +1.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

CAL 45.2 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Cuchilleros Albacete: (339 + ½ × 94) ÷ 854	45.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 14

CAL 15.4 %

League 16.1 %

How we counted it

Cuchilleros Albacete: 145 ÷ 941 possessions	15.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 14

CAL 25.0 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Cuchilleros Albacete: 126 ÷ (126 + 378)	25.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 14

CAL 24.4 %

League 21.4 %

How we counted it

Cuchilleros Albacete: 208 tries ÷ 854 shots	24.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−35.8

Over 6 games Cuchilleros Albacete's shots were worth 369.8 points and they scored 334 from the floor: 6.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−35.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 145 + 44	334
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	369.8
Shot-making	−35.8
A game	−5.97

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Cuchilleros Albacete
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 224 league shots	21	0.74	15.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 311	5	0.73	3.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 311	5	0.73	3.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 233	5	0.72	3.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 233	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 261	23	0.74	17.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 261	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 261	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up34 % of 396 league shots	18	0.68	12.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 509	2	0.66	1.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 509	1	0.66	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 509	1	0.66	0.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 873 league shots	63	1.17	73.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 378	14	1.18	16.6
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 294 league shots	21	1.23	25.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 378	2	1.18	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 210	8	1.15	9.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 210	1	1.15	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 207	7	1.19	8.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 207	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 207	4	1.19	4.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 860	2	1.18	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 860	2	1.18	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 285	4	0.92	3.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 285	3	0.92	2.8
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 375 league shots	101	0.95	95.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 240 league shots	17	0.84	14.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 810	14	0.93	13.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 810	4	0.93	3.7
Three · Pull-up29 % of 234 league shots	17	0.88	15.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 338	4	0.91	3.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 338	5	0.91	4.6
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 338	1	0.91	0.9
Total adds up	383	0.97	369.8

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Where Cuchilleros Albacete shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

383 of 383 shots shown

37.9%

145 of 383 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 73 / 127 58% · avg 1.9 ft 37 of the 73 makes assisted league 60% 146pts

MID 28 / 86 33% · avg 14.4 ft 12 of the 28 makes assisted league 35% 56pts

THREE 44 / 170 26% · avg 25.2 ft 37 of the 44 makes assisted league 31% 132pts

145 of 383 from the floor, 334 points, + 79 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

86 of 145 makes were assisted (59%): 37 + 12 + 37.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Cuchilleros Albacete

33% 22% 44%

League

35% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Cuchilleros Albacete

36% 46% 14%

League

34% 42% 17%

How we counted it

Cuchilleros Albacete: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	138 drives + 15 post-ups + 177 catch and shoot + 53 pull-ups = 383

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Eloy Diallo Injured SG 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/75 shots 75.0 expected 76 scored ▲ +1.0

Vidal Fuentes SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/72 shots 65.7 expected 62 scored ▼ −3.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.