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Curtidores Franca

Founded 1929 in Franca

Ginásio dos Curtumes, holding 12 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Curtidores Franca's wins match its points

+0.1 wins

Curtidores Franca's points say about 7 wins in 19 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

6.9Points say

82.9Scored a game

86.3Allowed a game

−3.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 575
Points allowed	1 640
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0413
To the power of 14	1.7615
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.7615)	36.21%
× 19 games played	6.88
Wins the points say	6.9 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Curtidores Franca won 0 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

34.0

Curtidores Franca attempt 34.0 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 31.4, so 2nd of 20.

CFR 34.0 %

League 31.4 %

How we counted it

Curtidores Franca: 399 tries ÷ 1 174 shots	34.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	31.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

Weakness

Careless with the ball

19.7 %

Curtidores Franca give it away on 19.7 % of trips against the league's 18.5 %. Fewer is better: 18th of 20.

CFR 19.7 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Curtidores Franca: 286 ÷ 1 449 possessions	19.7 %
League mean, 20 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.8 %

Curtidores Franca win back 22.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.2 %. That is 18th of 20.

CFR 22.8 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Curtidores Franca: 140 ÷ (140 + 475)	22.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Best shot-maker

Telmo Bosch

#42 · SF

41/84shots

102points

+14.9vs expected

How we counted it

41 made of 84, 20 of them threes	41/84
Points: 2 × 41 + 20	102
His shots are worth (expected)	87.1
Above expected	102 − 87.1 = +14.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 14th of 20

CFR 54.1 %

League 54.5 %

How we counted it

Curtidores Franca: (549 + ½ × 173) ÷ 1 174	54.1 %
League mean, 20 clubs	54.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	14th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 18th of 20

CFR 19.7 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Curtidores Franca: 286 ÷ 1 449 possessions	19.7 %
League mean, 20 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 18th of 20

CFR 22.8 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Curtidores Franca: 140 ÷ (140 + 475)	22.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 20

CFR 34.0 %

League 31.4 %

How we counted it

Curtidores Franca: 399 tries ÷ 1 174 shots	34.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	31.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+21.2

Over 8 games Curtidores Franca's shots were worth 487.8 points and they scored 509 from the floor: 2.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+21.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 219 + 71	509
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	487.8
Shot-making	+21.2
A game	+2.65

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Curtidores Franca
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 288 league shots	16	0.85	13.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 428	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 428	5	0.87	4.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 428	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Post-up39 % of 267 league shots	11	0.78	8.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 344	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 344	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 285 league shots	17	0.78	13.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	6	0.80	4.8
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 654 league shots	34	0.78	26.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	7	0.78	5.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	8	0.78	6.3
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 511 league shots	64	1.22	77.8
Rim · Drive · second chance58 % of 252 league shots	15	1.15	17.3
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 610 league shots	25	1.27	31.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 476	8	1.23	9.8
Rim · Post-up65 % of 376 league shots	7	1.29	9.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 484	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 431 league shots	14	1.28	17.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	2	1.28	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	6	1.28	7.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	5	1.26	6.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	2	1.26	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	5	1.13	5.7
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 339 league shots	122	1.03	125.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 333 league shots	19	1.03	19.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 431 league shots	18	1.09	19.5
Three · Pull-up36 % of 560 league shots	28	1.07	30.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	3	1.08	3.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	5	1.08	5.4
Total adds up	466	1.05	487.8

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Where Curtidores Franca shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

538 of 538 shots shown

47.2%

254 of 538 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 120 / 177 68% · avg 2.0 ft 67 of the 120 makes assisted league 63% 240pts

MID 52 / 127 41% · avg 14.2 ft 32 of the 52 makes assisted league 41% 104pts

THREE 82 / 234 35% · avg 25.0 ft 73 of the 82 makes assisted league 36% 246pts

254 of 538 from the floor, 590 points, + 166 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

172 of 254 makes were assisted (68%): 67 + 32 + 73.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Curtidores Franca

33% 24% 43%

League

38% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Curtidores Franca

31% 45% 20%

League

31% 8% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Curtidores Franca: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	143 drives + 22 post-ups + 208 catch and shoot + 93 pull-ups = 466

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Telmo Bosch SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

41/84 shots 87.1 expected 102 scored ▲ +14.9

Gustavo Gould PG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

45/82 shots 85.9 expected 99 scored ▲ +13.1

Renato Eufrásio PG 32 y

Strong61–80

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

28/52 shots 51.9 expected 60 scored ▲ +8.1

Ayotunde Akanbi SF 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/62 shots 66.6 expected 66 scored ▼ −0.6

Agenor Coello PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

21/53 shots 54.7 expected 53 scored ▼ −1.7

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Maurílio Modesto SG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 2

29/64 shots 68.0 expected 63 scored ▼ −5.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.