Manage a club, start free

Dalkefischer Gütersloh

Founded 1964 in Gütersloh

Dalke-Halle, holding 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Where the points say

Dalkefischer Gütersloh's wins match its points

−0.8 wins

Dalkefischer Gütersloh's points say about 9 wins in 13 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.8Points say

74.5Scored a game

70.6Allowed a game

+3.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	968
Points allowed	918
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9483
To the power of 14	0.4759
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4759)	67.75%
× 13 games played	8.81
Wins the points say	8.8 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Dalkefischer Gütersloh won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

24.0

Dalkefischer Gütersloh attempt 24.0 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 19.7, so 1st of 14.

DFG 24.0 %

League 19.7 %

How we counted it

Dalkefischer Gütersloh: 208 tries ÷ 867 shots	24.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Strong on the glass

30.8 %

Dalkefischer Gütersloh win back 30.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.9 %. That is 2nd of 14.

DFG 30.8 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Dalkefischer Gütersloh: 149 ÷ (149 + 335)	30.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

A strong attack

104.4

Dalkefischer Gütersloh score 104.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 100.5. That is 5th of 14.

DFG 104.4

League 100.5

How we counted it

100 × 968 points ÷ 927 possessions	104.4
League mean, 14 clubs	100.5
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Best shot-maker

Gabriel Coulon

#97 · PG

53/106shots

118points

+11.9vs expected

How we counted it

53 made of 106, 12 of them threes	53/106
Points: 2 × 53 + 12	118
His shots are worth (expected)	106.1
Above expected	118 − 106.1 = +11.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 14

DFG 47.5 %

League 48.0 %

How we counted it

Dalkefischer Gütersloh: (365 + ½ × 94) ÷ 867	47.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 14

DFG 16.1 %

League 16.2 %

How we counted it

Dalkefischer Gütersloh: 149 ÷ 927 possessions	16.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 14

DFG 30.8 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Dalkefischer Gütersloh: 149 ÷ (149 + 335)	30.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 14

DFG 24.0 %

League 19.7 %

How we counted it

Dalkefischer Gütersloh: 208 tries ÷ 867 shots	24.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−41.4

Over 6 games Dalkefischer Gütersloh's shots were worth 377.4 points and they scored 336 from the floor: 6.9 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−41.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 151 + 34	336
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	377.4
Shot-making	−41.4
A game	−6.90

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Dalkefischer Gütersloh
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive43 % of 231 league shots	16	0.86	13.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 339	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 339	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot35 % of 223 league shots	15	0.70	10.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 293	3	0.71	2.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 293	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up34 % of 389 league shots	35	0.67	23.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 527	13	0.68	8.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 527	3	0.68	2.0
Rim · Drive58 % of 876 league shots	59	1.16	68.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 325	23	1.17	27.0
Rim · Drive · fast break59 % of 264 league shots	19	1.18	22.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 325	4	1.17	4.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	16	1.18	18.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	2	1.18	2.3
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	2	1.18	2.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	6	1.18	7.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	3	1.18	3.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	4	1.18	4.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	3	1.18	3.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	2	1.18	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	8	0.89	7.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	4	0.89	3.6
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 412 league shots	82	0.91	74.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance27 % of 253 league shots	17	0.81	13.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 857	4	0.90	3.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 857	1	0.90	0.9
Three · Pull-up27 % of 249 league shots	32	0.81	25.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	5	0.85	4.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	2	0.85	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	2	0.85	1.7
Total adds up	399	0.95	377.4

⁠

Where Dalkefischer Gütersloh shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

399 of 399 shots shown

37.8%

151 of 399 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 81 / 148 55% · avg 2.0 ft 30 of the 81 makes assisted league 60% 162pts

MID 36 / 93 39% · avg 14.9 ft 14 of the 36 makes assisted league 36% 72pts

THREE 34 / 158 22% · avg 25.0 ft 26 of the 34 makes assisted league 31% 102pts

151 of 399 from the floor, 336 points, + 87 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

70 of 151 makes were assisted (46%): 30 + 14 + 26.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Dalkefischer Gütersloh

37% 23% 40%

League

33% 24% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Dalkefischer Gütersloh

34% 34% 26%

League

33% 43% 18%

Dalkefischer Gütersloh lean on pull-ups: 25.6 % of its shots against the league's 17.5 %.

How we counted it

Dalkefischer Gütersloh: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	137 drives + 24 post-ups + 136 catch and shoot + 102 pull-ups = 399

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Gabriel Coulon PG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

53/106 shots 106.1 expected 118 scored ▲ +11.9

Falk Hempel SG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/98 shots 91.5 expected 98 scored ▲ +6.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.