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Domadores Bragado

Founded 1917 in Bragado

Gimnasio de la Laguna de Bragado, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Domadores Bragado's wins trail its points

−1.5 wins

Domadores Bragado's points say about 14 wins in 22 league games. It has 13. The table has been a little unkind.

13Wins so far

14.5Points say

80.9Scored a game

77.2Allowed a game

+3.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 779
Points allowed	1 698
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9545
To the power of 14	0.5208
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5208)	65.76%
× 22 games played	14.47
Wins the points say	14.5 adds up

Wins so far	13
Difference	−1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Domadores Bragado won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

14.8 %

Domadores Bragado give it away on 14.8 % of trips against the league's 16.7 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 12.

DBR 14.8 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Domadores Bragado: 243 ÷ 1 641 possessions	14.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

A solid defence

103.5

Domadores Bragado let in 103.5 per 100 trips against the league's 106.5. Lower is better: 3rd of 12.

DBR 103.5

League 106.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 698 allowed ÷ 1 640 possessions	103.5
League mean, 12 clubs	106.5
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.0 %

Domadores Bragado win back 24.0 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 10th of 12.

DBR 24.0 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Domadores Bragado: 189 ÷ (189 + 599)	24.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Best shot-maker

Emilio Núñez

#4 · PG

51/97shots

117points

+19.6vs expected

How we counted it

51 made of 97, 15 of them threes	51/97
Points: 2 × 51 + 15	117
His shots are worth (expected)	97.4
Above expected	117 − 97.4 = +19.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 12

DBR 52.1 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Domadores Bragado: (663 + ½ × 222) ÷ 1 487	52.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	7th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 12

DBR 14.8 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Domadores Bragado: 243 ÷ 1 641 possessions	14.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 12

DBR 24.0 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Domadores Bragado: 189 ÷ (189 + 599)	24.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 12

DBR 21.2 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Domadores Bragado: 315 tries ÷ 1 487 shots	21.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+39.1

Over 9 games Domadores Bragado's shots were worth 591.9 points and they scored 631 from the floor: 4.3 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+39.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 273 + 85	631
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	591.9
Shot-making	+39.1
A game	+4.34

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Domadores Bragado
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 275 league shots	24	0.79	19.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	6	0.83	5.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	4	0.83	3.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	2	0.83	1.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	12	0.74	8.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 245 league shots	25	0.72	18.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 343	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 343	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 478 league shots	55	0.79	43.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 644	9	0.79	7.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 644	9	0.79	7.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 644	1	0.79	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 158 league shots	97	1.22	117.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 732	10	1.21	12.1
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 357 league shots	30	1.21	36.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 732	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	7	1.21	8.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	14	1.31	18.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	4	1.31	5.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	8	1.31	10.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	4	1.23	4.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	15	1.02	15.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 797 league shots	137	1.04	142.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance30 % of 272 league shots	12	0.90	10.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break34 % of 294 league shots	19	1.01	19.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 404	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Pull-up28 % of 309 league shots	40	0.85	34.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 402	7	0.95	6.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 402	4	0.95	3.8
Total adds up	586	1.01	591.9

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Where Domadores Bragado shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

651 of 651 shots shown

46.4%

302 of 651 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 130 / 209 62% · avg 2.0 ft 69 of the 130 makes assisted league 60% 260pts

MID 78 / 175 45% · avg 14.6 ft 31 of the 78 makes assisted league 39% 156pts

THREE 94 / 267 35% · avg 25.3 ft 84 of the 94 makes assisted league 34% 282pts

302 of 651 from the floor, 698 points, + 113 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

184 of 302 makes were assisted (61%): 69 + 31 + 84.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Domadores Bragado

32% 27% 41%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Domadores Bragado

33% 39% 24%

League

33% 44% 17%

Domadores Bragado lean on pull-ups: 23.5 % of its shots against the league's 16.7 %.

How we counted it

Domadores Bragado: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	192 drives + 29 post-ups + 227 catch and shoot + 138 pull-ups = 586

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Emilio Núñez PG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

51/97 shots 97.4 expected 117 scored ▲ +19.6

Silvio Manrique PF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 2

35/68 shots 67.1 expected 79 scored ▲ +11.9

Obrad Klingner SF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

39/79 shots 81.5 expected 92 scored ▲ +10.5

Waldo Carmona SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

74/166 shots 166.6 expected 176 scored ▲ +9.4

Ángel Cuadrado PG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

38/91 shots 91.4 expected 86 scored ▼ −5.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.