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Drahtzieher Hagen

Founded 1950 in Hagen

Volmetal-Halle, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Drahtzieher Hagen's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Drahtzieher Hagen's points say about 7 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

7.0Points say

73.4Scored a game

72.6Allowed a game

+0.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	954
Points allowed	944
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9895
To the power of 14	0.8628
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8628)	53.68%
× 13 games played	6.98
Wins the points say	7.0 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Drahtzieher Hagen won 0 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

100.4

Drahtzieher Hagen let in 100.4 per 100 trips against the league's 104.2. Lower is better: 2nd of 14.

DZH 100.4

League 104.2

How we counted it

100 × 944 allowed ÷ 940 possessions	100.4
League mean, 14 clubs	104.2
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

46.2 %

Drahtzieher Hagen shoot 46.2 % effective. The league shoots 49.9 %. That is 13th of 14.

DZH 46.2 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Drahtzieher Hagen: (347 + ½ × 101) ÷ 861	46.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Strength

Strong on the glass

29.5 %

Drahtzieher Hagen win back 29.5 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.7 %. That is 2nd of 14.

DZH 29.5 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Drahtzieher Hagen: 143 ÷ (143 + 342)	29.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Best shot-maker

Maximilian Ludwig

#77 · SG

40/86shots

92points

+4.8vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 86, 12 of them threes	40/86
Points: 2 × 40 + 12	92
His shots are worth (expected)	87.2
Above expected	92 − 87.2 = +4.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

DZH 46.2 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Drahtzieher Hagen: (347 + ½ × 101) ÷ 861	46.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 14

DZH 15.5 %

League 17.0 %

How we counted it

Drahtzieher Hagen: 146 ÷ 941 possessions	15.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 14

DZH 29.5 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Drahtzieher Hagen: 143 ÷ (143 + 342)	29.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 14

DZH 25.7 %

League 24.1 %

How we counted it

Drahtzieher Hagen: 221 tries ÷ 861 shots	25.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−42.0

Over 6 games Drahtzieher Hagen's shots were worth 379.0 points and they scored 337 from the floor: 7.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−42.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 146 + 45	337
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	379.0
Shot-making	−42.0
A game	−7.00

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Drahtzieher Hagen
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 212 league shots	14	0.68	9.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 298	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 298	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 232	9	0.73	6.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 232	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot35 % of 203 league shots	11	0.71	7.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 262	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 394 league shots	30	0.78	23.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 534	7	0.78	5.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 534	5	0.78	3.9
Rim · Drive60 % of 884 league shots	53	1.20	63.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 394	9	1.22	11.0
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 311 league shots	26	1.23	32.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 394	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	8	1.20	9.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 227	8	1.17	9.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 227	2	1.17	2.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 227	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	7	1.20	8.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	2	1.20	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 188	6	0.97	5.8
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 188	2	0.97	2.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 188	2	0.97	1.9
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 300 league shots	97	1.05	102.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance30 % of 211 league shots	22	0.91	20.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 717	15	1.01	15.1
Three · Pull-up29 % of 242 league shots	18	0.87	15.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 334	3	0.85	2.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 334	4	0.85	3.4
Total adds up	376	1.01	379.0

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Where Drahtzieher Hagen shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

376 of 376 shots shown

38.8%

146 of 376 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 71 / 122 58% · avg 2.1 ft 36 of the 71 makes assisted league 61% 142pts

MID 30 / 85 35% · avg 14.4 ft 14 of the 30 makes assisted league 37% 60pts

THREE 45 / 169 27% · avg 25.1 ft 42 of the 45 makes assisted league 32% 135pts

146 of 376 from the floor, 337 points, + 72 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

92 of 146 makes were assisted (63%): 36 + 14 + 42.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Drahtzieher Hagen

32% 23% 45%

League

36% 23% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Drahtzieher Hagen

32% 42% 20%

League

34% 41% 18%

How we counted it

Drahtzieher Hagen: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	119 drives + 23 post-ups + 157 catch and shoot + 77 pull-ups = 376

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Maximilian Ludwig Injured SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/86 shots 87.2 expected 92 scored ▲ +4.8

Patrick Jung PG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/63 shots 62.4 expected 62 scored ▼ −0.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.