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Dreiflüsse Passau

Founded 1966 in Passau

Ortspitz-Halle, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Dreiflüsse Passau's wins trail its points

−1.5 wins

Dreiflüsse Passau's points say about 10 wins in 13 league games. It has 9. The table has been a little unkind.

9Wins so far

10.5Points say

73.8Scored a game

66.7Allowed a game

+7.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	959
Points allowed	867
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9041
To the power of 14	0.2437
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.2437)	80.41%
× 13 games played	10.45
Wins the points say	10.5 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Dreiflüsse Passau won 3 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

104.1

Dreiflüsse Passau score 104.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 98.9. That is 2nd of 14.

DFP 104.1

League 98.9

How we counted it

100 × 959 points ÷ 921 possessions	104.1
League mean, 14 clubs	98.9
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

22.3

Dreiflüsse Passau attempt 22.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 18.9, so 2nd of 14.

DFP 22.3 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Dreiflüsse Passau: 191 tries ÷ 856 shots	22.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

A solid defence

94.5

Dreiflüsse Passau let in 94.5 per 100 trips against the league's 98.9. Lower is better: 3rd of 14.

DFP 94.5

League 98.9

How we counted it

100 × 867 allowed ÷ 917 possessions	94.5
League mean, 14 clubs	98.9
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Nils Buchner

#44 · PG

35/80shots

83points

+7.6vs expected

How we counted it

35 made of 80, 13 of them threes	35/80
Points: 2 × 35 + 13	83
His shots are worth (expected)	75.4
Above expected	83 − 75.4 = +7.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 14

DFP 48.5 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Dreiflüsse Passau: (358 + ½ × 115) ÷ 856	48.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 14

DFP 14.3 %

League 15.6 %

How we counted it

Dreiflüsse Passau: 132 ÷ 921 possessions	14.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 14

DFP 27.0 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Dreiflüsse Passau: 130 ÷ (130 + 351)	27.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 14

DFP 22.3 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Dreiflüsse Passau: 191 tries ÷ 856 shots	22.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−0.2

Over 6 games Dreiflüsse Passau's shots were worth 366.2 points and they scored 366 from the floor: 0.0 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−0.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 160 + 46	366
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	366.2
Shot-making	−0.2
A game	−0.04

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Dreiflüsse Passau
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 245 league shots	17	0.72	12.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 349	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 349	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 297	8	0.73	5.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 297	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 229 league shots	13	0.72	9.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 298	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 298	3	0.79	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up33 % of 421 league shots	22	0.67	14.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 540	6	0.67	4.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 540	8	0.67	5.4
Rim · Drive60 % of 838 league shots	75	1.20	89.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	9	1.22	11.0
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 248 league shots	15	1.28	19.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	6	1.19	7.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	9	1.19	10.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	5	1.19	5.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	4	1.19	4.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	3	1.19	3.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	9	0.89	8.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	4	0.89	3.6
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 504 league shots	86	0.90	77.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance26 % of 236 league shots	13	0.79	10.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 966	10	0.89	8.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 966	2	0.89	1.8
Three · Pull-up28 % of 269 league shots	33	0.83	27.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 363	4	0.81	3.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 363	5	0.81	4.1
Total adds up	386	0.95	366.2

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Where Dreiflüsse Passau shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

386 of 386 shots shown

41.5%

160 of 386 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 82 / 133 62% · avg 2.0 ft 46 of the 82 makes assisted league 60% 164pts

MID 32 / 86 37% · avg 14.5 ft 11 of the 32 makes assisted league 35% 64pts

THREE 46 / 167 28% · avg 25.2 ft 35 of the 46 makes assisted league 30% 138pts

160 of 386 from the floor, 366 points, + 53 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

92 of 160 makes were assisted (58%): 46 + 11 + 35.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Dreiflüsse Passau

34% 22% 43%

League

31% 24% 46%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Dreiflüsse Passau

36% 36% 23%

League

32% 45% 18%

Dreiflüsse Passau lean on pull-ups: 23.3 % of its shots against the league's 18.0 %.

How we counted it

Dreiflüsse Passau: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	139 drives + 18 post-ups + 139 catch and shoot + 90 pull-ups = 386

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Nils Buchner PG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

35/80 shots 75.4 expected 83 scored ▲ +7.6

Falk Berger SG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.8
Contract ends: End of season 3

57/142 shots 134.6 expected 130 scored ▼ −4.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.