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Dreihasen Paderborn

Founded 1962 in Paderborn

Pader-Halle, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Dreihasen Paderborn's wins match its points

+0.4 wins

Dreihasen Paderborn's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

4.6Points say

74.1Scored a game

77.3Allowed a game

−3.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	963
Points allowed	1 005
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0436
To the power of 14	1.8178
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.8178)	35.49%
× 13 games played	4.61
Wins the points say	4.6 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Dreihasen Paderborn won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

100.4

Dreihasen Paderborn score 100.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.2. That is 12th of 14.

DHP 100.4

League 104.2

How we counted it

100 × 963 points ÷ 959 possessions	100.4
League mean, 14 clubs	104.2
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

48.1 %

Dreihasen Paderborn shoot 48.1 % effective. The league shoots 49.9 %. That is 11th of 14.

DHP 48.1 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Dreihasen Paderborn: (363 + ½ × 103) ÷ 861	48.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

22.0

Dreihasen Paderborn attempt 22.0 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 24.1, so 10th of 14.

DHP 22.0 %

League 24.1 %

How we counted it

Dreihasen Paderborn: 189 tries ÷ 861 shots	22.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 14

DHP 48.1 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Dreihasen Paderborn: (363 + ½ × 103) ÷ 861	48.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 14

DHP 17.1 %

League 17.0 %

How we counted it

Dreihasen Paderborn: 164 ÷ 959 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 14

DHP 27.2 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Dreihasen Paderborn: 131 ÷ (131 + 351)	27.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 14

DHP 22.0 %

League 24.1 %

How we counted it

Dreihasen Paderborn: 189 tries ÷ 861 shots	22.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−42.8

Over 6 games Dreihasen Paderborn's shots were worth 395.8 points and they scored 353 from the floor: 7.1 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−42.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 158 + 37	353
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	395.8
Shot-making	−42.8
A game	−7.13

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Dreihasen Paderborn
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 212 league shots	21	0.68	14.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 298	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 298	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 232	10	0.73	7.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 232	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot35 % of 203 league shots	13	0.71	9.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 262	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 262	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 394 league shots	34	0.78	26.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 534	10	0.78	7.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 534	7	0.78	5.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 534	1	0.78	0.8
Rim · Drive60 % of 884 league shots	75	1.20	89.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 394	12	1.22	14.7
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 311 league shots	20	1.23	24.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 394	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	10	1.20	12.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 227	12	1.17	14.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 227	2	1.17	2.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 227	4	1.17	4.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	7	1.20	8.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 896	2	1.20	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 188	3	0.97	2.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 188	2	0.97	1.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 188	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 300 league shots	77	1.05	81.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance30 % of 211 league shots	11	0.91	10.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 717	9	1.01	9.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 717	4	1.01	4.0
Three · Pull-up29 % of 242 league shots	17	0.87	14.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 334	3	0.85	2.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 334	4	0.85	3.4
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 334	2	0.85	1.7
Total adds up	393	1.01	395.8

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Where Dreihasen Paderborn shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

393 of 393 shots shown

40.2%

158 of 393 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 88 / 153 58% · avg 2.0 ft 41 of the 88 makes assisted league 61% 176pts

MID 33 / 107 31% · avg 14.2 ft 10 of the 33 makes assisted league 37% 66pts

THREE 37 / 133 28% · avg 25.4 ft 26 of the 37 makes assisted league 32% 111pts

158 of 393 from the floor, 353 points, + 79 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

77 of 158 makes were assisted (49%): 41 + 10 + 26.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Dreihasen Paderborn

39% 27% 34%

League

36% 23% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Dreihasen Paderborn

36% 35% 22%

League

34% 41% 18%

How we counted it

Dreihasen Paderborn: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	142 drives + 27 post-ups + 136 catch and shoot + 88 pull-ups = 393

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Erik Hennig SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/56 shots 59.4 expected 59 scored ▼ −0.4

Thilo Junge PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

47/119 shots 112.8 expected 111 scored ▼ −1.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.